January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

even  if it was the euro--who cares about the 29th?

Once again, you are the voice of reason.   Why am I talking about weather here?

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ji said:

Euro surface maps are not out yet but there is some humidity here lol--

 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

Euro surface maps are not out yet but there is some humidity here lol--

It's a light event.  Don't have snowfall maps tho

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's a light event.  Don't have snowfall maps tho

we need to move to a Nino man. This winter is like a cold version of 01-02

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's a light event.  Don't have snowfall maps tho

C-3", not bad

[bncho]

Just now, Ji said:

we need to move to a Nino man. This winter is like a cold version of 01-02

have patience. we're going to move to the 26-27 Nino that according to you will rival 09-10

[Ji]

euro also has some moisture on this date

[WesternFringe]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro also has some moisture on this date

Who cares about the 26th? 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro also has some moisture on this date

You dont know how to read, huh?

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

You dont know how to read, huh?

just do your play by play

[TSSN+]

That high is insane 

 

[stormtracker]

Something creeps in from the north around the 28th, but...very light

[Weather Will]

I'm not sure what is happening in here this year....you all taught me that the globals outside 5 days are basically crap except for maybe overall pattern outlooks.  Yet everyone this year keeps chasing the globals no matter how far out.  Looking at the 12Z EURO and GFS through day 5 not much going on....maybe some light snow in eastern zones.  12Z GEFS is basically a nothing burger until later next weekend.  Waiting on 12Z EPS.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

That high is insane 

 

does this go out to sea?

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

does this go out to sea?

Just can't read.  Like, this was answered like 9 posts ago

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

I'm not sure what is happening in here this year....you all taught me that the globals outside 5 days are basically crap except for maybe overall pattern outlooks.  Yet everyone this year keeps chasing the globals no matter how far out.  Looking at the 12Z EURO and GFS through day 5 not much going on....maybe some light snow in eastern zones.  12Z GEFS is basically a nothing burger until later next weekend.  Waiting on 12Z EPS.

Troll post? We all know the storm chances are past day 5 lol 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Just can't read.  Like, this was answered like 9 posts ago

you said it was the gfs

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

does this go out to sea?

Gets smashed to nothing as it goes east. But I kinda prefer that at this range anyway. 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I'm not sure what is happening in here this year....you all taught me that the globals outside 5 days are basically crap except for maybe overall pattern outlooks.  Yet everyone this year keeps chasing the globals no matter how far out.  Looking at the 12Z EURO and GFS through day 5 not much going on....maybe some light snow in eastern zones.  12Z GEFS is basically a nothing burger until later next weekend.  Waiting on 12Z EPS.

I thought Jan 27-31 was the big one, not Jan 23-25

[Weather Will]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Troll post? We all know the storm chances are past day 5 lol 

No, people are saying the storms are right around the corner.  I will get excited if two globals show a storm inside 5 days.  Otherwise it it really is hype/ false hope.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

All operational guidance has the same general idea for the 7-15 day period.  Colder than normal temps with waves of moisture sliding west to east.  Hopefully we can get that boundary in the right place. 

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

I thought Jan 27-31 was the big one, not Jan 23-25

This is my point, the big storm is always 10 plus days away...

[TSSN+]

Just now, Weather Will said:

No, people are saying the storms are right around the corner.  I will get excited if two globals show a storm inside 5 days.  Otherwise it it really is hype/ false hope.

When you have a ens mean showing over .25” qpf 5+ days out that’s a decent sign something may happen in that period. 

[Weather Will]

We are in the stadium with good players on the field, but still waiting for it all to come together for a win. 

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

you said it was the gfs

 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

This is my point, the big storm is always 10 plus days away...

No? What big storm were we tracking before Jan 28? Jan 15 phantom that wasn't going to work?

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

sorry. Missed that  . Even in favorable patterns, dr no says no

[TSSN+]

Think the euro might be over doing the cold air. Near to below 0? -20 in pa. Hopefully just over doing the cold push by a bit. 

[stormtracker]

Here's my thinking.  That mother High is real.  The exact placement is not.  Until models get that right, we gonna windshield wiper that slug of moisture.

[Weather Will]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

No? What big storm were we tracking before Jan 28? Jan 15 phantom that wasn't going to work?

Most of us were thinking January would bring some snow....maybe it still will the last week of the month.