January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Just an aside...the Euro Weeklies keep winter ongoing through Feb w/ a break between maybe Feb2-7th.  Cosgrove said last night that the pattern may not break fully until the first week of March.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I was kind of surprised that the Euro AIFS jumped so far north at 12z. It booted the Baja low low fully out for the 25th system. 

Plain old Euro OP does it too. 

A lot rests on what happens to that Baja low. Previous runs had it waiting to kick out for the 28-9th system on the Euro AIFS. 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

And this would be the concern.  Winter storm w/ ice followed by this...

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I was kind of surprised that the Euro AIFS jumped so far north at 12z. It booted the Baja low low fully out for the 25th system. 

Plain old Euro OP does it too. 

A lot rests on what happens to that Baja low. Previous runs had it waiting to kick out for the 28-9th system on the Euro AIFS. 

 

 

 

Think it was its usual bias of holding back energy?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Think it was its usual bias of holding back energy?

It seems like we are still in the wibble-wobble phase of the Euro AI. In like 36 hours or so, if it follows what it did with this last system, it'll be pretty well locked in.

[TellicoWx]

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yep.  Legit scenario.  With the 1040+ hp over the top...that gives me a bit more hope than normal for snow.  But.... Very concerned about ice w/ that scenario.  Textbook ice setup, and models wouldn't catch that until it was under way IMHO.  That high would keep funneling low level cold down the valley as rain goes over the top...and up the valley.  Basically(and I know you know this...but kicking around the idea), the cold wraps clockwise around an incoming hp over the western Mid-West.  Then, the cold hits the Apps and funnels south.  The scenarios where we get snow...cold is right over the top.  The scenarios w/ the warm nose...the cold lags.  But with both scenarios...the cold eventually catches up.  The Euro AIFS EPS was very bullish on snow w/ many members as snow.  I am leaning towards cold winning the day, but am not sold on it.  So, I definitely like hearing the other side of the coin.

Key is that HP, if it tries sliding east a little to quickly the nose will try to come up the valley. Feel alot more confident west of the plateau. Euro AI is close to doorstep where it locks itself..next 2-3 runs will be crucial.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

.next 2-3 runs will be crucial.

100 % agree with this 

 

[tnweathernut]

There’s nothing really at 500 that should keep the system from kicking out and coming across, FWIW.

[TellicoWx]

5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I was kind of surprised that the Euro AIFS jumped so far north at 12z. It booted the Baja low low fully out for the 25th system. 

Plain old Euro OP does it too. 

A lot rests on what happens to that Baja low. Previous runs had it waiting to kick out for the 28-9th system on the Euro AIFS. 

 

 

 

According to what has been put out on it..we are right at the window where the AI is suppose to eliminate old bias

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Thar she blows:

 

As far as I can tell that is the system that gets kind of split in two and becomes the aforementioned Baja low. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

It's GFS time. Let's see what it offers up at 18z and should have a new Euro AIFS soon after. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Day 6-10 CPC analogs:

20240118
20030123
20110113
20210210
20070207
19960202
20030114
20140208
20100130
20170204

Day 8-14 CPC analogs:

20030125
20160211
20160117
20100215
19950205
20030112
20070213
19950128
19960211
20060209

Every one of the 6-10 one's had at least one good snow event just after. Least snowy one was 2017.

2 duds snowfall wise in the 8-14. Both 1995's they Had several very light , dusting to 2" deals and one rain to thundersnow later in early March 95 that produced 4" in Jonesville with much more Northeastward. 

    All in all most of those were great Snowy and Cold periods .

[Daniel Boone]

20 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just an aside...the Euro Weeklies keep winter ongoing through Feb w/ a break between maybe Feb2-7th.  Cosgrove said last night that the pattern may not break fully until the first week of March.  

Coz is on a Roll !

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Coz is on a Roll !

Yeah, he is about to post a dub for his seasonal forecast...went against most seasonals w/ a strong analog package and called the late January/early Feb storm track back in Oct/Nov.  

Just so I don't have to post twice(not that it stops me!  LOL), here is where the 12z AIFS ends up.  Weak comma head w/ a deepening coastal.  I bet the 96 system looked a lot like this.  I noticed that the flow backed a bit at the end of that first storm.  

[John1122]

That Euro AI run had me in the 20s with something like 1.5 inches of qpf, mostly ice I assume since 850s were screaming.  

[Carvers Gap]

Just for January...How has Euro verification faired in comparison to the Euro AIFS?  I feel like the Euro did well w/ the system along the coast today.  It locked on a more coastal solution and didn't budge despite the more amped GFS.  Also, where can I find verification scores?  I can never find it...even with Google!  The Euro is almost always tougher mid-winter.

[Carvers Gap]

I gotta think the 18z GFS is gonna be more north on this run just based on where it is w/ Weds's look.

[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

That Euro AI run had me in the 20s with something like 1.5 inches of qpf, mostly ice I assume since 850s were screaming.  

Supposedly the official AI version will not include ice in snowfall output. Ice will be included in the total qpf due to (according to the Euro office) it is global, and the grid resolution is too large to correctly show micro climates that determine ice. If a site does it, then it's using a program to determine the graphic. 

[Carvers Gap]

At 117, is that a 1050 hp in southern Canada?!

[Carvers Gap]

Should be big.

[Carvers Gap]

Big 1051 high sitting in Minnessota as this rolls in at 135.  I a warm nose can defeat that, then I give up.  Haha.  Not saying that 1051 is real BTW.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Baja not kicked out fully, but it is definitely slinging moisture at the HP

[Carvers Gap]

That is about where we want it and w/ the trend that we want...slight nudge north.  I don't think we want a 1050+ hp over the top.  1040s will do.   Either way, that is a winter storm over the mid and upper south.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Not kicking the Baja low out like the Euro and Euro AI, but still gets some moisture our way. 

[Carvers Gap]

I agree w/ @TellicoWx...the hp is gonna tell this story.  On the Euro AIFS at 12z, that hp was in the 1030s.  The Euro was in the 1040s.  I bet the HP was a bit stronger on the EURO AIFS EPS.  The 18z GFS has a monster high, and I bet that feature is over cooked.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Not kicking the Baja low out like the Euro and Euro AI, but still gets some moisture our way. 

I think that big hp blocks it???

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Not kicking the Baja low out like the Euro and Euro AI, but still gets some moisture our way. 

If it kicks...look out

[John1122]

8 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Supposedly the official AI version will not include ice in snowfall output. Ice will be included in the total qpf due to (according to the Euro office) it is global, and the grid resolution is too large to correctly show micro climates that determine ice. If a site does it, then it's using a program to determine the graphic. 

I've not seen an output. I just saw that I dip into the 20s somewhere between 138 and 144, and remain there as the precip falls. The 850s were so warm I assumed freezing rain instead of sleet. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Poor TX, parts of it would have freezing rain for decades on that GFS run 

[Carvers Gap]

I will take that 18z GFS look over the "cold gets hung up on the Plateau" look.  But I highly doubt it is right.  I like the idea of a big hp, but that model has been over-amping things all winter.  It does hold the big high back by about 200-300 miles and let's some moisture get north.  That seems plausible.