Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, Burghblizz said:

GFS taken literally is worse (lighter snows), but in reality much better as far as breathing room. Considerably south. 

Right now I think we are right where we want to be. Some models North, some to the South. Don't really want any more South on that GFS op run though.

[MikeB_01]

GFS is better yes. Euro has something to watch, but its very weak in comparison to the other models

[colonel717]

[colonel717]

Just saw the EPS indiv members. Not even worth posting them. Only like 3-4 have decent storm.

[Rd9108]

33 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Just saw the EPS indiv members. Not even worth posting them. Only like 3-4 have decent storm.

Hence why im not getting too invested. If the signal is there this weekend then ill start really paying attention. 

[Rd9108]

With all that being said this is a good signal on the GEFS. 

[colonel717]

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

With all that being said this is a good signal on the GEFS. 

 

Show me that on Sunday and I'll maybe believe it. I'm not saying this is our last chance, but it could be. Extended warm up likely after Monday.  Looked like GFS was brewing something end of the run on 13th after the warm up but way too far out.

[MikeB_01]

With all that being said this is a good signal on the GEFS. 

I’ll take this all day. This many days out, I like where we sit with the ensembles. I didn’t look at the EPS. Similar?


.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, colonel717 said:

Just saw the EPS indiv members. Not even worth posting them. Only like 3-4 have decent storm.

That's not great. My quick look at things, seems like weaker / further south is would be the lean based on 12z. Still plenty of time for that to change though. 

[colonel717]

1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said:

I’ll take this all day. This many days out, I like where we sit with the ensembles. I didn’t look at the EPS. Similar?


.

Not at all. As I said above, only 3-4 of the members out of 50 show 6+ inches of snow. While this shows depth mean, since we had no snow on the ground it gives you the idea. 

[colonel717]

Liking that GFS is more south. Gives us room to come north.

[Rd9108]

6 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Liking that GFS is more south. Gives us room to come north.

Agreed. Storms like this always make me nervous to trend north over south unless its like a 1050 HP. Im sure there will be some good Ensemble members. Need the Euro to get on board 

[Rd9108]

One final one 

[north pgh]

I'll gladly take 3-5 inches on Sunday night/Monday morning 

[Rd9108]

18 minutes ago, north pgh said:

I'll gladly take 3-5 inches on Sunday night/Monday morning 

Ill take one more warning event and then idc what it does after 

[colonel717]

Every run seems to have at least 1 member with 2 ft for us.