Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[colonel717]

4 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Multiple chances it appears to add on the next 7 or so days. Wouldn’t be surprised if we take a run at  50” for the season over that time.

I'm sitting at 45.5 in as of midnight. So exceeded climate. Imagine the airport should be pretty near climate. 

[colonel717]

RGEM would be perfect for Thursday. 

[Rd9108]

Little appetizer before too

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

I think thats what Scott is looking at. The numerous lake shower and the clippers showing up on the gfs and euro.

Speaking to the opposite of Jeff-V, I do recall years ago Scott mentioned prior to a big storm he is a bit of a "snow weenie" Did not use that terminology, but reading between the lines I picked that up. I don't mean to say he has ever been unprofessional in his forecasting etc. but more so deep down I think he probably roots for the big ones like us.

[Rd9108]

45 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Speaking to the opposite of Jeff-V, I do recall years ago Scott mentioned prior to a big storm he is a bit of a "snow weenie" Did not use that terminology, but reading between the lines I picked that up. I don't mean to say he has ever been unprofessional in his forecasting etc. but more so deep down I think he probably roots for the big ones like us.

Let's be honest he probably has an account on some weather forum 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Let's be honest he probably has an account on some weather forum 

Wish it was here! lol

[Rd9108]

24 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Wish it was here! lol

Lol im sure it wouldn't be hard to convince him. Thats why I like the other forum me and Paul post on. Theres a local met who posts about our area all the time. 

[colonel717]

27 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Lol im sure it wouldn't be hard to convince him. Thats why I like the other forum me and Paul post on. Theres a local met who posts about our area all the time. 

Paul is not my real name I just use that for that site. Its a Biblical reference to Apostle Paul. 

[colonel717]

Warwick Rhode Island, 5 miles from Providence has measured 32.8" of snow. This shatters the previous record, and is more snow than the Blizzard of 1978.

 

 

 

 

[jwilson]

Intense snow for some, subsidence for others.  That's the tough part of those bombogenesis coastals.

You can experience some really intense moments, but for my money, overrunning into a cold-air block is the preferred method of snow generation.  Big, widespread totals with less dependence on a locality under extreme convection.

[Rd9108]

6 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Intense snow for some, subsidence for others.  That's the tough part of those bombogenesis coastals.

You can experience some really intense moments, but for my money, overrunning into a cold-air block is the preferred method of snow generation.  Big, widespread totals with less dependence on a locality under extreme convection.

So basically what PD 2 and 2010 was?

[colonel717]

Getting nice heavy squall now.

Over running is nice but in general doesn't have the other dynamic effects. There's some I'm guessing 30-40 million plus people covering 7 states who saw very intense snow from this bombogenesis coastal. Extremely large area of 15 to 36 inches of snow. Yeah, always tough to nail the western edges of these storms and some get screwed by subsidence but they get pretty frequently, they pretty much eventually even out. One of the downfalls living here is not getting in on these kind of long duration intense snows other than once or twice in a lifetime. 

Some of the bombogenesis storms of the last 40+ years.

February 18–19, 1979 (Presidents’ Day Storm)

The Megalopolitan Blizzard of 1983

The Storm of the Century, 1993

The Blizzard of 1996

The Presidents Day Storm of 2003

Snowmageddon, 2010 Feb 5-6, Feb 9-10

The Christmas Blizzard of 2010

Winter Storm Jonas, 2016

The Bomb Cyclone of 2018

Feb 22-23 Storm

These below weren’t as widespread. NY city doesn’t get as much snow as surrounding areas but can see how frequent they get 12+ storms in last 20 years.

The North American Storm Complex of 2006: This complex storm system, which affected the Eastern United States in December 2006, dumped around 14 inches of snow on New York City. 

The Winter Storm of 2011: This powerful nor’easter, which hit the city in December 2011, dumped around 13 inches of snow on the city. 

The Winter Storm of 2015: This storm, which hit the city in January 2015, dumped around 13 inches of snow on the city. 

The Winter Storm of 2017: This storm, which hit the city in March 2017, dumped around 12 inches of snow on the city. 

The Winter Storm of 2018: This storm, which hit the city in January 2018, dumped around 12 inches of snow on the city. 

 

[Burghblizz]

1 hour ago, jwilson said:

Intense snow for some, subsidence for others.  That's the tough part of those bombogenesis coastals.

You can experience some really intense moments, but for my money, overrunning into a cold-air block is the preferred method of snow generation.  Big, widespread totals with less dependence on a locality under extreme convection.

It will be interesting to see a final plot of totals. I feel like the “floor” in most cases from Jersey north will still be pretty high 

[jwilson]

2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

So basically what PD 2 and 2010 was?

More or less, yes.  Like 1996 (which I guess wasn't a big impact for Pittsburgh but remains my personal biggest snow).  Some storms are hybrids that have multiple components.

I've experienced both, but I find that oftentimes with the dynamic nor'easter bombs, you spend a lot of time sitting in subsidence with terrible snow growth and have to wait for decent bands to rotate over you.

It's a massive win if you can get training of bands in the same spot, but that's even more rare.  See with this storm and the isolated jackpots in SE Mass and Rhode Island, maybe some along the coast in New Jersey or Long Island.

Obviously, you'd almost always take the big-time rates under those bands, but they're just unreliable and limit the big totals to relatively narrow zones.

Also, as has been said, Pittsburgh is too far from the Ocean to experience the entire "Miller B" playlist.  November 1950 storms don't grow on trees.

[Burghblizz]

14 minutes ago, jwilson said:

More or less, yes.  Like 1996 (which I guess wasn't a big impact for Pittsburgh but remains my personal biggest snow).  Some storms are hybrids that have multiple components.

I've experienced both, but I find that oftentimes with the dynamic nor'easter bombs, you spend a lot of time sitting in subsidence with terrible snow growth and have to wait for decent bands to rotate over you.

It's a massive win if you can get training of bands in the same spot, but that's even more rare.  See with this storm and the isolated jackpots in SE Mass and Rhode Island, maybe some along the coast in New Jersey or Long Island.

Obviously, you'd almost always take the big-time rates under those bands, but they're just unreliable and limit the big totals to relatively narrow zones.

Also, as has been said, Pittsburgh is too far from the Ocean to experience the entire "Miller B" playlist.  November 1950 storms don't grow on trees.

I always have mixed feelings about 96. Solid foot for me in Oakland at the time. 18” south of the city (airport total was “light”…like 10”) 

Fantastic in a vacuum, but obviously way more extreme elsewhere. 

Dec 92 was almost an extreme miller B winner. If I recall, the bombing happened in the Carolinas, so it became more of a storm just hugging the coast. We got like 10”, but the coastal part never quite materialized here (although somerset county got 3-4’). I remember the inland low over performing and really thinking we were set. 

[TimB]

As of 4pm, PIT needed 1.3” additional snow to clinch an above normal snowfall season. That would seem to be pretty much a guarantee with whatever falls from this event from 4pm onward, the Tuesday night event, the Thursday event, and the early next week event.

[Rd9108]

1 hour ago, jwilson said:

More or less, yes.  Like 1996 (which I guess wasn't a big impact for Pittsburgh but remains my personal biggest snow).  Some storms are hybrids that have multiple components.

I've experienced both, but I find that oftentimes with the dynamic nor'easter bombs, you spend a lot of time sitting in subsidence with terrible snow growth and have to wait for decent bands to rotate over you.

It's a massive win if you can get training of bands in the same spot, but that's even more rare.  See with this storm and the isolated jackpots in SE Mass and Rhode Island, maybe some along the coast in New Jersey or Long Island.

Obviously, you'd almost always take the big-time rates under those bands, but they're just unreliable and limit the big totals to relatively narrow zones.

Also, as has been said, Pittsburgh is too far from the Ocean to experience the entire "Miller B" playlist.  November 1950 storms don't grow on trees.

Looking at some obs threads from that storm i literally saw people doing exactly what you said. Sitting and there and praying that a band pivots. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Getting some decent snow bands here on and off. Picked up a quick quarter inch.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

2 hours ago, jwilson said:

More or less, yes.  Like 1996 (which I guess wasn't a big impact for Pittsburgh but remains my personal biggest snow).  Some storms are hybrids that have multiple components.

I've experienced both, but I find that oftentimes with the dynamic nor'easter bombs, you spend a lot of time sitting in subsidence with terrible snow growth and have to wait for decent bands to rotate over you.

It's a massive win if you can get training of bands in the same spot, but that's even more rare.  See with this storm and the isolated jackpots in SE Mass and Rhode Island, maybe some along the coast in New Jersey or Long Island.

Obviously, you'd almost always take the big-time rates under those bands, but they're just unreliable and limit the big totals to relatively narrow zones.

Also, as has been said, Pittsburgh is too far from the Ocean to experience the entire "Miller B" playlist.  November 1950 storms don't grow on trees.

Yeah, we usually score on the front end of the miller b before it jumps. I'll always roll the dice with a big miller a that runs inland just east of the mountains even though as you said waa is fairly easy and safe for a widespread hit.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

7 hours ago, colonel717 said:

Paul is not my real name I just use that for that site. Its a Biblical reference to Apostle Paul. 

At the risk of spending even more time on message boards talking about weather, Ill ask, what is this other site?

[Burghblizz]

23 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

At the risk of spending even more time on message boards talking about weather, Ill ask, what is this other site?

lol - my exact thought 

[Burghblizz]

Been in a solid area of snow the last few hours. Looks like another 2” today. (Although I lost yesterdays 2” in the meantime)

[Rd9108]

42 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

At the risk of spending even more time on message boards talking about weather, Ill ask, what is this other site?

Usawx. A lot of good mets over there. A lot of guys have profiles here as well.

[MikeB_01]

Usawx. A lot of good mets over there. A lot of guys have profiles here as well.

I think I used to have an account over there. Lots of Northeast chatter, but they post good maps and have good discussions.


.

[Rd9108]

2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

I think I used to have an account over there. Lots of Northeast chatter, but they post good maps and have good discussions.


.

Yeah. The one poster Snowmiser works in some aspect as a Meteorologist and I think is somewhere in Coraopolis. Anytime there's threats for our area he tends to post about them. Majority of content of course is Northeast but there's good discussion that happens there. 

[Rd9108]

It appears a pretty decent band went through overnight. Everything is covered and looks like maybe another inch outside. Another 1-2 tonight-wednesday and then who knows about the weekend. Its funny how just two weeks ago it looked like winter was dead.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

10 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Usawx. A lot of good mets over there. A lot of guys have profiles here as well.

Ah ok, yeah, I think I have browsed there before, it's been a few years.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

It appears a pretty decent band went through overnight. Everything is covered and looks like maybe another inch outside. Another 1-2 tonight-wednesday and then who knows about the weekend. Its funny how just two weeks ago it looked like winter was dead.

I do think we probably have another 10 days here give or take before it really warms up. Euro still wants one more big cold shot before we warm up too. Should be plenty of time to hit average or above average snow for the season. After mid-March who knows, it may get cold again relatively speaking, but obviously increasingly harder to snow even if it does. 

[colonel717]

1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Ah ok, yeah, I think I have browsed there before, it's been a few years.

The guy who runs the site is a ball buster and can give certain posters abuse. But they have been around for a long time. Its 95% NY centric so you have to put up with that. As RDD said SnowMiser is a Pgh met in some capacity. He is from NJ so that is his connection there and lives in Allison Park now and works for NWS.

If there is a storm like this weekend, I stay away from that site. I can't take all of the gloating...  

[colonel717]

Looks like a decent line of snow showers is building from the west.