Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[colonel717]

[TimB]

Sleet is up to about Bethel Park at 81, then we dry slot.

Surface temps are still in the mid teens at that hour, so I’m not sure how badly we could actually mix.

[TheClimateChanger]

2 minutes ago, TimB said:

Sleet is up to about Bethel Park at 81, then we dry slot.

Which model is this? The NAM?

[TimB]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Which model is this?

NAM

[MikeB_01]

1 minute ago, colonel717 said:

theres the amplified look.  Not shocked to see the extent of the mix considering the look at the 500 level

[Mailman]

Outlier.

[colonel717]

I just shoveled that sleet from last night, couldn't imagine having to shovel that for whole storm. 

[colonel717]

7 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Outlier.

Still out of its range. But is a possible outcome. I think anything over 6 inches is a win. 

[TheClimateChanger]

10 minutes ago, TimB said:

NAM

That's what I guessed afterwards. It's been awhile since we've had a storm of this magnitude to track, but the NAM traditionally is the most amped. So it looked like a very NAM-like solution. Sometimes it's right, but if it's the only model showing the mix getting that far north, I wouldn't bet on it. Still a very solid hit areawide if the snow maps are accurate.

[Burghblizz]

The only thing NAM did was not give the warm and fuzzies of passing around 20” Kuchera maps. Don’t think it changes much at this point. 

[Rd9108]

So just another solution. With each model suite it seems like the floor for this event is increasing. While idk if we see over 12, atleast 6 is looking more and more likely. 

[TimB]

Icon held.

[colonel717]

I personally don't throw any solution out. I have heard too many times "its an outlier" only for it to be most similar to end solution. There is so much energy floating around what ever is the focus can change each run. I knew getting to the finish line on this one was going to be a struggle with some models ultimately showing things we don't like. What fun would it be if there was no angst... Enjoy the angst. Another Pens game tonight. 

I Like Ike by the way...

[MikeB_01]

8 minutes ago, TimB said:

Icon held.

yes. That mix precip stays at the PA line again. 

[colonel717]

[colonel717]

14 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

yes. That mix precip stays at the PA line again. 

ICON sucks for thermals, such a warm bias. I dont recall it ever showing mix precip between rain and snow lines on any surface map.  

[Rd9108]

2 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Highest its been so far. How many inches get into the top 10 for a storm?

[MikeB_01]

1 minute ago, colonel717 said:

ICON sucks for thermals, such a warm bias. I dont recall it ever showing mix precip between rain and snow lines.  

for some reason the output on tropical tidbit doesnt have any mix. However, if you look at the icon on PW, you can see the mix on that one.  However, agree. The thermals are rough on the icon

[colonel717]

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Highest its been so far. How many inches get into the top 10 for a storm?

I would guess more than 15 inches or more may do it. 20 definitely would if we are going back to 1800's

[colonel717]

The eventual NAM replacement brings mix line into tip of SAGC

[Rd9108]

3 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

The eventual NAM replacement brings mix line into tip of SAGC

 

Gotta smell the sleet they say

[colonel717]

AIGFS brings low just south of us.

[colonel717]

GFS is almost repeat of 6z

 

 

[Burghblizz]

27 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Highest its been so far. How many inches get into the top 10 for a storm?

I doubt we get there even in the win scenario. I think the official 10th biggest is around 15” or 16”. While the official total tends to be on the higher side when it comes to seasonal totals, it’s usually on the lower side with major storms. 

Storms like Jan ‘94 and Jan ‘96 are nowhere to be found, even though parts of AGC/Wash/Westmoreland got 20”+. 

I don’t think that’s what we are looking at here, but man it would be nice. 

[MikeB_01]

17 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

AIGFS brings low just south of us.

 

doesnt appear to be any issues with the thermals even with the low being that close

[colonel717]

[colonel717]

8 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

doesnt appear to be any issues with the thermals even with the low being that close

Its also almost 1.3 inch of qpf. 

[MikeB_01]

Ukie... The mix and dry slot getting close on that run

 

[colonel717]

They are in Indianapolis and then dont get as much with GFS. 

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2014368156240990484

BAM Weather

 

@bam_weather

 

The GFS is just wrong I am telling you all it's wrong trust me. Side by side w/the ECMWF right GFS left It's not handling this low and the phase correctly at all and it's on an island with how it evolves. It's a matter of time before it caves to the ECM. Just watch.

[colonel717]

Next weekend