December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[John1122]

Ironically, the GFS ensembles agree more closely at 500 than the Euro in general, and not with it's OP which is a massive WC trough/EC ridge.

 

[Daniel Boone]

The MJO appears to be progressing ideally for our Area through December. However, the AO and NAO are not if guidance were to be right. Of course, those Domains cannot be forecasted with great accuracy, particularly the NAO. 

      The good thing that can mitigate the Effects of the positve Arctic Oscillation Modes is the weak south displaced PV. We saw that in 2015 and a couple recent Years. However, if you want much greater Odds for across the Board Snowstorms you want the Arctic Domain Negative. As witnessed , most notably in 2015, Northern Area's can do well as long as the PV is weak and displaced well South in Canada.

[jaxjagman]

11 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Check it out this winter if the MJO gets back to P5,ill look for an archive but i doubt its the same

The MJO was fairly chaotic into Maritime/WP this cycle but it was into still the Maritome the first week of Nov,i need to go back and read it more thoroughly for myself,thanks for sharing this,John