Mountain West Discussion

[finnster]

19 hours ago, Chinook said:

1976-1977 was of course as you mentioned extremely dry for the western USA, and also quite cold and snowy for the Northeast/Great Lakes. This may have been a time when great long-range weather forecaster Namias started noticing the link between El Nino, Pacific SST anomalies, and huge changes in the USA's weather systems. I think this paper says that no low pressure areas tracked through the ridge (at all) around the West Coast.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/106/3/1520-0493_1978_106_0279_mcotna_2_0_co_2.xml

Thanks Chinook for the link to the paper. As I recall it took some time to break out of that pattern that became entrenched in 1976-77. 

[ValpoVike]

I had a nice surprise burst of snow move thru this afternoon. It was almost like a squall but It only lasted 10 minutes, with a temp in the mid 30’s, and my gauge only logged .02” of liquid. 

[tacoman25]

All models are now pretty much in agreement for a 2-4" event for the metro area Thursday afternoon and night. With higher amounts possible further south.

[bch2014]

With last weekend's rain here on the CA Central Coast, most major climo sites have surpassed their FY norms for the "water year." Anything we get from this point will be gravy, from that perspective.

Looks a dry period upcoming - we need it here. 

[Chinook]

1 hour ago, bch2014 said:

With last weekend's rain here on the CA Central Coast, most major climo sites have surpassed their FY norms for the "water year." Anything we get from this point will be gravy, from that perspective.

Looks a dry period upcoming - we need it here. 

10"-20" in 14 days is a lot. It's above the annual rainfall of Colorado

every state other than California and North Dakota has drought.

[smokeybandit]

18 hours ago, tacoman25 said:

All models are now pretty much in agreement for a 2-4" event for the metro area Thursday afternoon and night. With higher amounts possible further south.

I expect the models start to dry up today like they normally do 24 hours out.

[mayjawintastawm]

4 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

I expect the models start to dry up today like they normally do 24 hours out.

Have to agree... hopefully we're wrong, but experience shows...

The Denver Post this AM has some predictions that had me laughing out loud, along the lines of "Tonight, there's a 100% chance of darkness." Copied/pasted:

• 1 to 11 inches in Aurora, Golden, Lakewood and Littleton 
• 1 to 12 inches in Centennial 
• 1 to 13 inches in Parker and Castle Rock

[tacoman25]

8 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

I expect the models start to dry up today like they normally do 24 hours out.

Eh, last couple snow events ended up about where the models were showing 24 hours out. At least here. In early December I actually got an inch or two more than was expected.

Most are still showing 1-4" for Denver metro as of now, so I think that's a pretty good bet. Main limiting factor looks to be heaviest precip occurring during the middle of the day with peak heating.

[smokeybandit]

I've got a WSW for 5-10"

I see nothing on any model that says that'd come close to verifying.

[mayjawintastawm]

I'm guessing 18z models and things I don't have access to upped the moisture a bit. Just looked at the NWS updated forecast, and we're forecast to get 0.39" WE and about 4.5 inches of snow, and we are a little too far north/too low to be in the watch area. No updated discussion- I've noticed that AFDs are not updated as often as they used to be, guessing staffing is the issue. So we'll see. In any case, I expect the Post's forecast of 1-12 inches will verify. 

[tacoman25]

1 hour ago, smokeybandit said:

I've got a WSW for 5-10"

I see nothing on any model that says that'd come close to verifying.

Latest GFS goes nuts. NAM trended wetter, too. Have to think this is overdone, though.

[Chinook]

no watches/advisories for most areas

[smokeybandit]

0z HRRR has basically nothing falling in the watch area.

0Z NAM lost a lot of moisture, too.

[mayjawintastawm]

1 hour ago, smokeybandit said:

0z HRRR has basically nothing falling in the watch area.

0Z NAM lost a lot of moisture, too.

I think HRRR only goes through 18 hours ( so 21Z, 2 PM MT) and NAM is pretty consistent wih its 12z run (18z was prob an outlier) - looking at the 00z ones I could find, not much has changed except the GFS is still heavier than the others.

[tacoman25]

0z Euro looks basically the same as 12z. Looks like there will be snow tomorrow for a few hours, then a lull, then it picks up again in the evening for a few hours. 2-4" for Denver metro south of 70 still appears on track.

[smokeybandit]

6z HRRR has flurries. 6z GFS has a big storm.

[smokeybandit]

12z models are now wetter again.

[mayjawintastawm]

Pretty soon we’ll be driving ourselves crazy looking at models that predict yesterdays snowstorm that never happened.

[smokeybandit]

Just impossible to put any faith in the models anymore.