November 2025 OBS Discussion

[nycwinter]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

The entire premise is incorrect.  There was plenty of climate change back then. CO2 concentrations were already up to 310 ppm by the early 1930s, compared to a pre-industrial mean of 270-280 ppm. And methane was already up to ~1100 ppb, from 700 ppb pre-industrial average. CO2 follows a logarithmic curve, so the amount of warming from the early/mid 19th century to the 1930s would be about the same amount of warming that has occurred since 2000 - actually more significant when you factor in methane concentrations. There is nothing in the history of New York City to suggest that the snow drought during that period would have occurred in the absence of human caused warming.

15 below in 1934 for the city 6 below in 1933.. minus 1 minus 3 in the 1930's early 1940's  8 below 4 below..

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, nycwinter said:

15 below in 1934 for the city 6 below in 1933.. minus 1 minus 3 in the 1930's early 1940's  8 below 4 below..

Yes, it's warmer today. But the 1930s were quite warm too, especially in North America. So warm, in fact, that certain people like to constantly bring them up to "rebut" climate change. A few notable cold snaps don't change that fact.

New York City's moving 30-year mean annual snowfall was pretty steady between 32 and 34 inches until the mid 1920s - and that's generally with measuring the new fallen depth, not snowboards and 6 hourly or more frequent measurements. So, the "snow drought" from the late 1920s and early/mid 1930s was certainly a big departure from the long-term climatology.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will see highs mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Sunday could turn briefly milder before another cool air mass moves into the region. Some showers are possible on Sunday with the frontal passage, but rainfall totals will generally be under 0.25" in most parts of the region.

Temperatures will again top out mainly in the middle and upper 40s through the middle of next week.

Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,385th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +5.21 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.534 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.2° (0.8° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[wdrag]

Probably threading wind advisory criteria early Saturday for Noon-10PM Sunday,  45-50 MPH gusts. Minor impact except air travel and where a wind blown branch crosses the road. Slot looks BGM-MPO through NYC-LI.