Two new lemons

[bigtenfan]

Any thoughts?

[Prospero]

33 mph gust in Gulfport, FL a few minutes ago. That's more than Imelda brought which was a very nice steady breeze.

I looked at NOAA and was surprised to see a lemon!

[WxWatcher007]

Posted my thoughts in the main thread but I think the tropical wave has robust support and a favorable environment for development. The lemon off the SE coast is limited by land and time. But a quick spin up is possible. 

[Prospero]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Posted my thoughts in the main thread but I think the tropical wave has robust support and a favorable environment for development. The lemon off the SE coast is limited by land and time. But a quick spin up is possible. 

Is the swamp hot enough to feed a low over some land?

The breeze feels good, we've had rain up here so not complaining for this year. Last year was a nightmare right now.

 

[WEATHER53]

Many times in the mid Atlantic we get our first tropucal  influence about 5 days after the first real cool shot moves out. The first cool one is over us  right now and I’m curious to see what happens next 

[GaWx]

10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Posted my thoughts in the main thread but I think the tropical wave has robust support and a favorable environment for development. The lemon off the SE coast is limited by land and time. But a quick spin up is possible. 

Regarding the MDR lemon:

A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the 
next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with 
another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow 
development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves 
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Jelsema

———————

I didn’t post it. But the 12Z UKMET had a TC form from this at 162 hours and it was already recurving/moving NW to 23.7N, 57.2W at 168.

 The new UKMET (0Z) forms it 18 hours earlier and it moves WNW instead of NW meaning it ends up much further S than the 12Z run had it at the end of the run (~150 miles NE of the Leewards):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.7N 53.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2025 132 15.7N 53.2W 1009 40
0000UTC 09.10.2025 144 17.5N 56.5W 1009 39
1200UTC 09.10.2025 156 18.8N 59.3W 1009 34
0000UTC 10.10.2025 168 19.7N 61.4W 1008 31

[NorthHillsWx]

The eastern lemon has excellent model support for development but will be another recurve 

[NC US Geological Survice]

Eastern one now a pumpkin.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The eastern lemon has excellent model support for development but will be another recurve 

 It would almost certainly be a miss of the Conus if it were to be a TC E of 55W per history. There hasn’t been on record even one TC existing E of 55W after October 4th that made it all of the way to the Conus! (I’ve checked all of the years.) That doesn’t mean it’s impossible and that it won’t eventually happen. But that does mean the chance is tiny.

 OTOH, it is were to be very slow to develop and wait, say, til near the Lesser Antilles or further W, then there would no longer be the near certainty of a Conus miss. It might then still be a likelihood but not a near certainty looking from this far out.