95L

[yoda]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025
 
...TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 44.6W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Jerry as Tropical Storm Watches could be required
later today or tonight.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of the newly formed Tropical 
Storm Jerry was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 44.6 
West. Jerry is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h).  A 
decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is 
expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the 
core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the 
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to become a 
hurricane in a day or two.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical 
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header 
WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward 
Islands on Thursday.  These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at[X].shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[yoda]

 
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

The system we have been monitoring (Invest 95L) over the tropical 
central Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized thunderstorm 
activity and a low-level center to be considered a tropical cyclone. 
This system is far from land, roughly 1000 miles east of the 
Windward Islands.  An ASCAT pass from around 12Z showed peak winds 
between 35 and 40 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity 
is set at 40 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Jerry.  Convective 
bands are increasing around the center, and the strongest winds are 
on the storm's east side. 

Jerry is moving quickly westward at about 21 kt on the 
south-southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge.  A turn to the 
west-northwest with a gradual reduction in forward speed is expected 
during the next couple of days as Jerry nears the southwestern edge 
of the ridge.  This should bring the core near or to the north of 
the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.  Around that 
time, the models show a deep-layer trough amplifying over the 
western Atlantic, which should erode the ridge.  In response to the 
pattern change, Jerry is forecast to turn northward over the 
west-central Atlantic this weekend.  The NHC track forecast is a 
little faster than the model consensus through 72 hours and in best 
agreement with HCCA and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean, which 
have been performing quite well so far this year. Interests in the 
northern Leeward Islands should monitor Jerry as there is 
uncertainty on how close the core of the system will get to the 
islands later this week. 

The environmental conditions appear favorable for the system to 
strengthen during the next couple of days with the upper-level winds 
appearing light, waters quite warm, and abundant surrounding 
moisture.  The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a 
hurricane in a day or two before its closest approach to the 
northern Leeward Islands.  After the system passes by the islands, 
the models diverge significantly with some solutions showing Jerry 
moving into stronger shear while others keep it in a favorable 
upper-level wind pattern.  For now, the official forecast shows no 
change in strength from days 3 to 5, but confidence is low for that 
portion of the intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to pass near or just north of the northern 
Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday. Interests there should 
monitor the progress of the storm as there is a risk of wind, surf, 
and rainfall impacts. Watches may be required for a portion of that 
area later today or tonight.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 11.5N  44.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 12.3N  47.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 13.5N  51.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 14.9N  54.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 16.5N  57.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 18.1N  60.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 19.8N  61.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 24.4N  63.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 29.4N  62.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[yoda]

 

[WxWatcher007]

Going to be a close call for the islands. Shear is a big wildcard as the NHC notes, but this has major potential if it can avoid that. Another big genesis bust for the Euro. 

[Wannabehippie]

[NorthHillsWx]

Has the look of another over-achiever on sat. HWRF says it gets close to a mid October cat 5. I’ll start putting a little more stock in the hurricane models now that we have a defined system.