October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

remember when october 2007 felt shocking

what happened in october 2007 lol

I thought October 2019 was much more shocking when it was 95-96 with a HI of 100, that felt like July lol

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

You'd need a very cold air mass to get locked in to our n/nw and those kinds of air masses have been rare in recent years. 

WX/PT

But they were quite frequent during the 1980s

I think 1994 was the last time we had an airmass like that?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Got to 87° here yesterday.  Hovered between 85 and 87 for a solid 90 minutes before falling off starting around 3 pm.  It was down to 70 by sunset.

Up to 75 now after overnight low of 57.

I wish it was like this in the summer.  This is ideal weather.

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

what happened in october 2007 lol

I thought October 2019 was much more shocking when it was 95-96 with a HI of 100, that felt like July lol

2019 was several degrees cooler overall. 2007 had that insane string of upper 80s and finished around +6 for most of us

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

WE dont but have you looked at the midwest!

Yes but that is usually where extreme temperatures usually happen.

Heat is usually hotter there and cold is usually colder too.

This is like in January when it's -40 to -50 in MN but in the 20s in NYC.

Both heat and cold are usually much more extreme in landlocked areas.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

20 years ago it would have been a snowstorm but not in 2025..

Bro this wouldn't even be a snowstorm in the 1860s let alone the 1960s.  I hope you realize that in its entire snowfall history NYC never even received a single inch of snow in October until Snowtober 2011 lol.  That winter was forgettable but October's snow storm was a one in thousand year event.  It may have been the single most unlikely event of any type to occur in our area.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Sundog said:

This would have been a sick snowstorm. 

The low eventually comes over us but only when it's already rotting and during most of the precip duration it's showing strong northerly to NE winds. 

This reminds me of the April 2007 tax day noreaster

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Much stronger blocking forecast now as we approach mid-October. So a cutoff near the mid Atlantic coastline is a plausible scenario. Would like to wait until it gets under 120 hrs to get interested in a soaking rain for at least parts of the area. 
 

New run

Old run

 

October blocking has a very strong correlation to blocking during the winter.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Bro this wouldn't even be a snowstorm in the 1860s let alone the 1960s.  I hope you realize that in its entire snowfall history NYC never even received a single inch of snow in October until Snowtober 2011 lol.  That winter was forgettable but October's snow storm was a one in thousand year event.  It may have been the single most unlikely event of any type to occur in our area.

 

If not for the incredible warming during that period, there probably should have been several more October snowfalls that never were allowed to occur. And the lack of a 1" snowfall was more bad luck than anything, considering even DC had snowfalls in excess of an inch in October 1925 and October 1940.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

It was a top 3 for 100° days for many locations.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1993	9	0
2	1949	8	0
3	2025	7	87
4	2022	6	0
-	1953	6	0
5	1988	5	0
-	1966	5	0

 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	6	87
2	1999	5	4
3	2022	4	0
-	2010	4	30
-	2006	4	4
-	2005	4	9
4	2024	3	0
-	2012	3	21
-	2011	3	30
-	2001	3	7
5	2021	2	0
-	2019	2	0
-	2013	2	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2006	4	0
-	1955	4	0
2	1953	3	0
3	2025	2	87
-	2013	2	0
-	2010	2	0
-	2005	2	0
-	1999	2	0
-	1991	2	0
-	1966	2	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010	3	0
-	1966	3	0
2	2025	2	87
-	2011	2	0
-	1993	2	0
-	1983	2	0
-	1948	2

 

Time Series Summary for CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	3	89
2	2011	2	0
-	2010	2	0
-	1999	2	151
3	2021	1	3
-	2019	1	2
-	2012	1	10
-	2005	1	1
-	2001	1	5

 

But not in July unfortunately.

Did it make the top 3 at Newark? 1993 and 1949 are still untouched.

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

Euro (0Z) has it again with it right on the coast Sunday morning. Aren’t hybrid nor’easters not an uncommon occurrence in late October/early Nov in that region? This would be a bit earlier than that:

Halloween is the classic time for our first noreaster and they usually are of the hybrid type.

[Sundog]

20 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

remember when october 2007 felt shocking

I think that month was very humid though which we haven't really had so far. It also finished almost +6 even compared to our shitty new normals, I don't know if we will get there.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

If not for the incredible warming during that period, there probably should have been several more October snowfalls that never were allowed to occur. And the lack of a 1" snowfall was more bad luck than anything, considering even DC had snowfalls in excess of an inch in October 1925 and October 1940.

I don't believe in luck, DC is very far inland.  NYC being right near the water has a much less chance of an October snowstorm than DC does.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't believe in luck, DC is very far inland.  NYC being right near the water has a much less chance of an October snowstorm than DC does.

DC is a subtropical swamp.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

2019 was several degrees cooler overall. 2007 had that insane string of upper 80s and finished around +6 for most of us

I thought it was weird that JFK hit 90 in October 2007 but Central Park was nowhere close.  I think NYC was 87 on the date that JFK hit 90.  JFK's latest 90 degree high on record.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

DC is a subtropical swamp.

Or it can be colder and snowier, we had several instances of this during the 1980s.  Vet Day 1987 is an example of a storm when it snowed in DC and rained in NYC.  This used to be much more common back then.

There was a storm like this in December 1989 a very cold month, when DC got snow and NYC flipped to rain right at the onset of the storm. A huge busted forecast of 6-8 inches of snow ended up being rain and thunder here.

 

[Sundog]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

If not for the incredible warming during that period, there probably should have been several more October snowfalls that never were allowed to occur. And the lack of a 1" snowfall was more bad luck than anything, considering even DC had snowfalls in excess of an inch in October 1925 and October 1940.

Maybe it's the proximity to the ocean then that's the problem. 

And I still disagree, October snowstorm in NYC is extremely unlikely, whether it's 2025 or 1725

[TheClimateChanger]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't believe in luck, DC is very far inland.  NYC being right near the water has a much less chance of an October snowstorm than DC does.

I can assure you that New York was screwed out of at least 5 or 6 October 1"+ snowfalls that would have occurred in a natural atmosphere.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

DC is a subtropical swamp.

One of the most bemusing (not amusing) type of storms are of the stemwinder type that produce snow at both DC and Boston but rain in NYC.  I'm glad those type of storms are so rare now.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Maybe it's the proximity to the ocean then that's the problem. 

And I still disagree, October snowstorm in NYC is extremely unlikely, whether it's 2025 or 1725

Yes, being close to the ocean is very bad for snow in October.

I mean even Snowtober 2011 didn't get any snow east of SW Nassau.... and that was a 1 in 1000 year scenario.

I was glad I got that 1.5 inch and have the pictures to prove it ha.

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I can assure you that New York was screwed out of at least 5 or 6 October 1"+ snowfalls that would have occurred in a natural atmosphere.

Do you have any dates? And what did surrounding locations get? 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But they were quite frequent during the 1980s

I think 1994 was the last time we had an airmass like that?

 

We had them throughout 2010-11 and often enough in 2014-15, 2015-16, 2020-21. It doesn't have to be single digits. Teens or 20s is sometimes good enough.

WX/PT

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

We had them throughout 2010-11 and often enough in 2014-15, 2015-16, 2020-21. It doesn't have to be single digits. Teens or 20s is sometimes good enough.

WX/PT

My bad I thought we were talking about the last time we had a genuine widespread subzero arctic outbreak lol.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

5 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Do you have any dates? And what did surrounding locations get? 

It's a general observation. The October climatology for New York used to be the same as modern Scranton, PA (elev: ~1,000 feet, and inland). Mean temp (1869-1900): 55.0F in NYC; mean temp (2015-2024): 55.1F at Scranton. And there have been several 1"+ snows in Scranton in October. Plus, the NYC figures are probably artificially elevated due to UHI, which is minimal in Scranton. The actual climate was probably colder.

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Bro this wouldn't even be a snowstorm in the 1860s let alone the 1960s.  I hope you realize that in its entire snowfall history NYC never even received a single inch of snow in October until Snowtober 2011 lol.  That winter was forgettable but October's snow storm was a one in thousand year event.  It may have been the single most unlikely event of any type to occur in our area.

 

We did have a great run of early season snowfall from 2008 to 2019. The late October events in 2008 and 2011 were at the very end of the month when the climate can be more November-like when there is cold around. The November 2012 and 2019 snowstorms were very memorable. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It's a general observation. The October climatology for New York used to be the same as modern Scranton, PA (elev: ~1,000 feet, and inland). Mean temp (1869-1900): 55.0F in NYC; mean temp (2015-2024): 55.1F at Scranton. And there have been several 1"+ snows in Scranton in October. Plus, the NYC figures are probably artificially elevated due to UHI, which is minimal in Scranton. The actual climate was probably colder.

wow man, Scranton PA averages around 50 inches of snow a year lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

We did have a great run of early season snowfall from 2008 to 2019. The late October events in 2008 and 2011 were at the very end of the month when the climate can be more November-like when there is cold around. The November 2012 and 2019 snowstorms were very memorable. 

Yes November 2012 on the 7th was my all time favorite early season snowstorm.  Our earliest WSW event and we had 8.5 inches of a very heavy wet snow here.  It was snowing on the south shore and raining on the north shore lol.  Do you think we still would have had snow with that had that storm occurred on October 31 though?

Freehold NJ getting 14 inches of snow from that was very impressive and must be their earliest double digit snowfall by at least a month lol.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow man, Scranton PA averages around 50 inches of snow a year lol.

 

Lol, I know it sounds crazy, but it's true. Look it up.

Here is another example... winters in DC used to be colder than modern winters in Elkins, West Virginia, which averages 70" of snow a year (elev: ~2k feet). And the old DC numbers are probably artificially elevated due to UHI and substandard siting/exposure (rooftop, and for a time, northern window well). By contrast, there are only like 20,000 people in all of Randolph County, West Virginia, which is a big, sprawling county full of national forestland, so there is no UHI at all.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It's a general observation. The October climatology for New York used to be the same as modern Scranton, PA (elev: ~1,000 feet, and inland). Mean temp (1869-1900): 55.0F in NYC; mean temp (2015-2024): 55.1F at Scranton. And there have been several 1"+ snows in Scranton in October. Plus, the NYC figures are probably artificially elevated due to UHI, which is minimal in Scranton. The actual climate was probably colder.

Please note Scranton has several methods of getting accumulating snow that NYC is not able to get, like lake effect remnant streamers and also clippers that dry out as they cross the Apps.

I have a place in NE PA I know that area well.  Sometimes they'll get all day lightly accumulating snow just from a lake effect streamer.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Lol, I know it sounds crazy, but it's true. Look it up.

Here is another example... winters in DC used to be colder than modern winters in Elkins, West Virginia, which averages 70" of snow a year (elev: ~2k feet). And the old DC numbers are probably artificially elevated due to UHI and substandard siting/exposure (rooftop, and for a time, northern window well). By contrast, there are only like 20,000 people in all of Randolph County, West Virginia, so there is no UHI at all.

 

Do you think that back in the 1800s at some point DC averaged around 70 inches of snow though? And NYC averaged around 50 inches of snow?

I can buy NYC averaging around 40 inches back in the early to mid 1800s so I guess that's close enough. I'm not familiar with DC climo to hazard a guess, but the highest I would go for them is between 30-35 inches of snow back in the early to mid 1800s.