Invest 91L - 30/30

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

Tons of dry air out there right now. Even the NHC is making notes about it now how it will inhibit any development for the next few days. Unless that dry air lifts up, or otherwise gets out of the way, this will be a whole lot of nothing.

some models have 91l forming in the subtropics but I've already pressed X to doubt

the atlantic = dubai or Karachi RIGHT NOW

[NorthHillsWx]

Might be DOA 

[eyewall]

30/30 probs this morning. 

[Newman]

Quite the bust with this wave. The Euro AI did well on not biting on this one

[MANDA]

11 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Might be DOA 

Said this yesterday.  The plug has been pulled.

[MANDA]

With 91L kaput we will likely reach the historical peak of hurricane season (9/10-9/11) with no named storm in the Atlantic Basin.

ACE season to date is now below normal.  We're at 39 and normal is 47.  Erin is responsible for 32 of those 39 ACE points. 

We're wasting peak season at this point so we're going to have some catching up to do if we want to get to normal which is 122.  It still can be done though so we'll have to see what mid September into October can pull off.   MJO forecast to go into more favorable phases by then but we've been playing a bit of kick the can on that so remains to be seen.  Gut tells me watch out for something to lift out of the Caribbean toward the Gulf coast before all is said and done.  I think if there is going to be a Major hit on the U.S. coastline this season it will be the gulf coast.  Chances of an east major hit this season are low and decreasing for several reasons.

Not expecting anything to get named over the next 5-7 days.

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

With 91L kaput we will likely reach the historical peak of hurricane season (9/10-9/11) with no named storm in the Atlantic Basin.

ACE season to date is now below normal.  We're at 39 and normal is 47.  Erin is responsible for 32 of those 39 ACE points. 

We're wasting peak season at this point so we're going to have some catching up to do if we want to get to normal which is 122.  It still can be done though so we'll have to see what mid September into October can pull off.   MJO forecast to go into more favorable phases by then but we've been playing a bit of kick the can on that so remains to be seen.  Gut tells me watch out for something to lift out of the Caribbean toward the Gulf coast before all is said and done.  I think if there is going to be a Major hit on the U.S. coastline this season it will be the gulf coast.  Chances of an east major hit this season are low and decreasing for several reasons.

Not expecting anything to get named over the next 5-7 days.