NEW DISTURBANCE: Central Tropical Atlantic (10/60)

[BarryStantonGBP]

OI OIII

NEW DISTURBANCE LADZZZZ

[BarryStantonGBP]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Erin, located about 100 miles north of the Virgin Islands.


2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form over the central tropical 
Atlantic during the middle to latter portion of next week from a 
westward moving tropical wave.  Some subsequent development could 
occur as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Patel
    

[GaWx]

 12Z UK has TS 3rd run in row but this recurves ~62W due to Erin to its N:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 15.6N 48.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.08.2025 108 16.8N 50.3W 1009 26
1200UTC 21.08.2025 120 18.5N 54.0W 1008 31
0000UTC 22.08.2025 132 20.3N 56.7W 1006 31
1200UTC 22.08.2025 144 21.9N 59.3W 1005 36
0000UTC 23.08.2025 156 24.5N 61.2W 1006 35
1200UTC 23.08.2025 168 25.3N 61.8W 1006 38

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 0Z UK has TS 3rd run in row but this recurves ~62W due to Erin to its N:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 15.6N 48.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.08.2025 108 16.8N 50.3W 1009 26
1200UTC 21.08.2025 120 18.5N 54.0W 1008 31
0000UTC 22.08.2025 132 20.3N 56.7W 1006 31
1200UTC 22.08.2025 144 21.9N 59.3W 1005 36
0000UTC 23.08.2025 156 24.5N 61.2W 1006 35
1200UTC 23.08.2025 168 25.3N 61.8W 1006 38

Do you think the blob will form + probable peak intensity?

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Do you think the blob will form + probable peak intensity?

Yes.

I have no idea.

[BarryStantonGBP]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Yes.

I have no idea.

MH POSSIBLE?

[BarryStantonGBP]

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Posted 5 minutes ago

Way too far out right now but the GFS has a Hurricane Fernand making multiple landfalls across the Caribbean/Florida in around a weeks time with potential major hurricane status.

Atmospheric conditions here would be much more favourable for a US landfall than with Erin, still very far out and models still iffy on formation but one to watch closely.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 12Z UK has TS 3rd run in row but this recurves ~62W due to Erin to its N:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 15.6N 48.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.08.2025 108 16.8N 50.3W 1009 26
1200UTC 21.08.2025 120 18.5N 54.0W 1008 31
0000UTC 22.08.2025 132 20.3N 56.7W 1006 31
1200UTC 22.08.2025 144 21.9N 59.3W 1005 36
0000UTC 23.08.2025 156 24.5N 61.2W 1006 35
1200UTC 23.08.2025 168 25.3N 61.8W 1006 38

 Followup to the above 12Z UKMET post regarding the new MDR AOI:

 I just looked at the last 4 UKMET runs and discovered that the reason the latest run recurves this AOI into Erin is because Erin is further SW due to a further W recurve and thus doesn’t exit until a couple of days later than yesterday’s runs:

UKMET progs for 0Z 8/22:

1) 0Z 8/15 run at 168 hrs:
Erin 954 mb at 38N, 59W after recurve at 70W
AOI 1011 mb at 20N, 61W, is 1,250 miles to the S

2) 12Z 8/15 run at 156 hrs:
Erin 949 mb at 42N, 57W after recurve at 70W
AOI 1006 mb at 18N, 62W, is 1,700 miles to the SSW

3) 0Z 8/16 run at 144 hrs:
Erin 962 mb at 37N, 66W after recurve at 73W
AOI 1007 mb at 16N, 59W, is 1,500 miles to the SSE

4) 12Z 8/16 run at 132 hrs:
Erin 958 mb at 35N, 71W after recurve at 74W
AOI 1006 mb at 20N, 57W, is 1,350 miles to the SEmoving NW to the S of retreating H5 ridge

Conclusion:
 It isn’t just about how fast the AOI moves W and develops, but also and possibly more crucially it is about how far W Erin recurves. The further W Erin recurves, the longer it will take for her to exit. The later the exit, the better chance the AOI would have to recurve before reaching the Conus.

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET vs 12Z:

-AOI forms 30 hours later and then is barely N of the N Leewards (~300 miles to the SW of prior run at same time). 

-Although Erin still recurves at 74W at same time as prior run had it, it after 120 hours exits much faster to the ENE. At hour 156, it’s already to 54W vs only to 65W on the prior run. So, then Erin on the 0Z is ~1,600 miles NE of the AOI vs ~1,000 miles NNW of the AOI on the 12Z at 168. 

-Regardless, the AOI is moving NNW at 168 suggesting it’s likely recurving well E of the SE US:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 18.6N 61.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2025 132 18.6N 61.9W 1008 30
0000UTC 23.08.2025 144 19.3N 63.8W 1007 29
1200UTC 23.08.2025 156 20.1N 65.9W 1006 36
0000UTC 24.08.2025 168 22.3N 67.1W 1005 42

[BarryStantonGBP]

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Definitely has climatology in its favor. 

[GaWx]

 The 12Z Icon 180 position along with the run’s steering features including at H5 would appear to me to suggest a sharp recurve is about to commence fwiw. Sharp enough to avoid the E coast? Quite possible but impossible to know, especially for OB and Cape Cod. But details not important on 180 hour operational run, regardless.

 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z Icon 180 position along with the run’s steering features including at H5 would appear to me to suggest a sharp recurve is about to commence fwiw. Sharp enough to avoid the E coast? Quite possible but impossible to know, especially for OB and Cape Cod. But details not important on 180 hour operational run, regardless.

Given that look, with the ridge in SE Canada, I’m not so sure it hooks quickly, but we’re far out obviously at this stage. 
 

I’m on board though. I think the environment strongly supports eventual development. 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: recurve with it moving NNW at end and aiming toward area around Bermuda:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  96 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.7N  54.7W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 21.08.2025   96  15.7N  54.7W     1009            28
    0000UTC 22.08.2025  108  17.2N  57.2W     1007            28
    1200UTC 22.08.2025  120  19.3N  60.2W     1006            30
    0000UTC 23.08.2025  132  20.8N  61.9W     1006            32
    1200UTC 23.08.2025  144  22.4N  63.8W     1005            35
    0000UTC 24.08.2025  156  25.0N  64.5W     1005            41
    1200UTC 24.08.2025  168  27.9N  65.8W     1005            43

[GaWx]

 From my perspective, I hope Erin takes her sweet time and thus reduces the chance this could hit the US. Being near the coast in a highly vulnerable location, I’ll take boring over interesting with this AOI.

12Z: CMC, Euro, Euro AIFS, and UKMET are all recurving between 65 and 70W. JMA isn’t out yet. ICON doesn’t go out far enough to know where it would go in relation to especially E NC and Cape COD but the 180 suggests it’s likely about to recurve, regardless.
 
 So, other than the still unknown JMA, the GFS is the only major operational global suggesting a big threat to the Conus with Icon being undetermined.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 From my perspective, I hope Erin takes her sweet time and thus reduces the chance this could hit the US. Being near the coast in a highly vulnerable location, I’ll take boring over interesting with this AOI.

12Z: CMC, Euro, Euro AIFS, and UKMET are all recurving between 65 and 70W. JMA isn’t out yet. ICON doesn’t go out far enough to know where it would go in relation to especially E NC and Cape COD but the 180 suggests it’s likely about to recurve, regardless.
 
 So, other than the still unknown JMA, the GFS is the only major operational global suggesting a big threat to the Conus with Icon being undetermined.

0/30 now, thoughts?

[GaWx]

44 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

0/30 now, thoughts?

Looks like it will be slow to develop. JMA doesn’t recurve it but it slows it up NE of the Leewards. Good chance for a recurve if Erin takes her sweet time to get out.

[GaWx]

 Meanwhile, the lone highly threatening op. global model hangs onto it at Happy Hour:

[smokeybandit]

Up to a medium now, 40%

[bigtenfan]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Meanwhile, the lone highly threatening op. global model hangs onto it at Happy Hour:

The GFS is totally on an island. I could not find even 1 of its own ensembles that even comes close to that solution much less any of the  operational runs from  any of the other models.

[WxWatcher007]

The operational runs are nonsense but the GEFS and EPS definitely have a strong TC genesis signal. 

[WxWatcher007]

I just want to take a second to illustrate what I mean. The signal is robust on both sets of ensembles, though it is stronger on the GEFS. 

 

 

Now looking beyond ensembles, I think development is likely for a few reasons, even if delayed. First, the preceding wave and Erin have helped reduce SAL significantly. While there is still plenty out there which may inhibit development, I don't know if dry air/SAL alone will kill the wave, especially with another CCKW likely assisting in future. 

 

There are pockets of shear that could cause trouble, but the ensembles don't show an overwhelmingly prohibitive signal as this gets closer to the Antilles. Currently, the wave is in a narrow corridor of lower deep layer shear. 

I'm not sure it's all systems go, but I think the operational models aren't quite picking up on TC genesis potential quite yet. 

 

[cptcatz]

A couple things have my attention this morning: there's a big blob of convection at 7N which is significantly further south than where the NHC marked the wave. I wonder if this will help tug it south or maybe it will just go poof. Second, this morning's 06z GEFS shows a much stronger signal with many of the ensembles staying south hitting Florida.

[WxWatcher007]

I'm skeptical that this wave gets pushed into the Gulf given the signal for another big trough on the ensembles, but critically, this trough is more over the US rather than in Canada, which opens the door for some type of east coast threat. 

We obviously have a long way to go with this one, but it's worth some attention. 

[WxWatcher007]

Odds up at 2pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Erin, located near the Southeast Bahamas.

Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is 
producing limited disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression could form toward the end of 
the week.  This system should move westward to west-northwestward at 
about 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the 
vicinity of the Leeward Islands on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cptcatz]

The convection blob still remains on the southwest side of this huge wave. I don't trust any model until this consolidates and as long as that convection blob remains to the southwest, I'd still lean towards a more south/west track...

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: aiming for Bermuda and weak (only a TD this run)

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 18.7N 59.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2025 96 18.7N 59.7W 1010 28
0000UTC 23.08.2025 108 19.7N 62.4W 1009 28
1200UTC 23.08.2025 120 21.0N 65.2W 1010 28
0000UTC 24.08.2025 132 22.5N 67.0W 1011 26
1200UTC 24.08.2025 144 24.0N 68.0W 1013 29
0000UTC 25.08.2025 156 26.8N 67.7W 1013 29
1200UTC 25.08.2025 168 29.5N 66.1W 1014 29

[GaWx]

12Z JMA fwiw also has it very weak but disagrees with the 12Z UKMET on the track with it near Cuba at 192: