93L – “Inactive” Season Posting Check-In

[BarryStantonGBP]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Southeastern U.S.:
A broad area of low pressure could form over the next several days
offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Environmental conditions
could become marginally conducive for the gradual development of
this system by mid to late next week as the system moves generally
westward across the Florida Peninsula and over the eastern and
north-central portion of the Gulf.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions
of the Florida Peninsula  and southeast U.S. coast through mid to late
next week (and y’all better stock up on Hot Cheetos, I am NOT playing).


Forecaster Papin/Mahoney/Jackson

[BarryStantonGBP]

[tiger_deF]

I’m expecting the models to back on and off of development of this feature, especially given the background state, but this ICON run is an eye opener

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, tiger_deF said:

I’m expecting the models to back on and off of development of this feature, especially given the background state, but this ICON run is an eye opener

Mental run mate

 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

I’m expecting the models to back on and off of development of this feature, especially given the background state, but this ICON run is an eye opener

 The ICON has at least been hinting at this since the Wednesday (7/9) runs whereas the other recent operationals have not had much, if anything. Ensemble support is only light.

 If this does occur, it would be an easy win for the Icon.

[GaWx]

The 12Z Icon has a cat 2-3 (968 mb) hitting near the LA/TX border Fri night after battering much of the LA coast on Thu-Fri fwiw.

Edit: Icon still mainly on its own of 12Z global operationals. CMC does have a weak low further N near the Gulf coast.

[tiger_deF]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z Icon has a cat 2-3 (968 mb) hitting near the LA/TX border Fri night after battering much of the LA coast on Thu-Fri fwiw.

I hope it slides to the west or east if it is still predicting development, that area has been hit really hard in the past few years, Laura Delta and others have caused a lot of damage

[WxWatcher007]

Up to 30%, and the ensembles are slightly more bullish today.

[GaWx]

Recon is scheduled for tomorrow I believe.

[BarryStantonGBP]

pls someone change the title to 10/30 I can't do it 

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

pls someone change the title to 10/30 I can't do it 

 As thread starter, you can edit the title as often as you wish. Just go to the first post here, click on the “…” and then choose “edit”.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 As thread starter, you can edit the title as often as you wish. Just go to the first post here and click on edit.

thanks mate

[Normandy Ho]

Another name coming.  LLC starting to develop 

[WxWatcher007]

93L looks pretty solid for an invest. If it weren’t about to plow into Florida it’d definitely be on the path to development. It really has been a homebrew season so far…

[BarryStantonGBP]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

93L looks pretty solid for an invest. If it weren’t about to plow into Florida it’d definitely be on the path to development. It really has been a homebrew season so far…

Invest 93L
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 14, 2025:
 

Location: 29.6°N 78.0°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1016 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 60 nm

[BarryStantonGBP]

A s2k user said (and I agree):

 

Quote

 

TallyTracker

Category 2

Posts: 732

Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:46 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

•  

#4 by TallyTracker » Mon Jul 14, 2025 1:00 pm 

Just looking at the overall environment and current condition of the disturbance in marginal conditions, I think the development potential is much higher than 30%. The models don’t seem to have a good grasp on this one. I’d say it’s got at least a 50% chance of development. Even the NHC is saying conditions look favorable for development despite the 30%. The ICON’s prediction of a TS to Cat 1 Hurricane seems a reasonable outcome.

 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

The ICON has led the way so far with its appearance on the Atlantic side. I’d keep an eye out along the Gulf coast. There’s a favorable window here. 

[Normandy Ho]

Cats are sleeping in this. Radar presentation is very good for a non TD

[BarryStantonGBP]