Sundog Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 80s for NYC on Monday on the new 12z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 10 minutes ago, Sundog said: That may be true but now pretty much all the models have turned the winds from the ocean instead of from the NW. Bottom line if that wind direction is anywhere close to true we're not getting to 104 on Monday like the Euro had yesterday or the day before. is it just for Monday or Tuesday too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 10 minutes ago, Sundog said: Technically the 6z run was the halfway point between the 0z and 12z changes. this feels like how models trend badly with snowfall events the processes are similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: we haven't matched the heat of the 2010-2013 period or how widespread it was, look at this amazing 2012 heat we had in June LGA: 98 (2012)JFK: 97 (2012) The highs of 108° in Newark and Mineola during 2010 and 2011 still stand for our summer all-time maximum temperatures set during the month of July. 2010 remains our warmest summer near the coast. But some spots in NJ had their warmest summer in 2022. Last summer some spots in Eastern PA had their warmest summer. So although the coastal sections haven’t exceeded 2010 yet, go just to our west and they have had 2010 style heat in recent years. Although the all-time daily highs haven’t been as impressive as 2010 and 201l were to us. Mostly a function of the prevailing wind direction. But for all-time June heat the 2020s stands alone. As we are on track to even surpass June 2021 for 100°+ coverage potentially even beating the 103° all-time June high at EWR and the 102° at Corona. 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Monsoon climates have a secondary maxima in September, Chris. I know, because in my travels around the world, I've experienced these climates. They have a primary maxima in May and June and a secondary maxima in September and October. We aren’t going to meet the formal definition of a monsoon climate here. But we have been experiencing aspects of them. Especially with the early heat in June being followed by flooding rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Upper 80s in NYC for Monday on the 12z GGEM, down into the 70s by 8PM. The 6z Euro is the only model pumping out 100s for NYC on Monday, but that's an old run, let's see what 12z shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: is it just for Monday or Tuesday too? 12z GFS has 102 for Manhattan for Tuesday and upper 90s deep into LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The highs of 108° in Newark and Mineola during 2010 and 2011 still stand for our summer all-time maximum temperatures set during the month of July. 2010 remains our warmest summer near the coast. But some spots in NJ had their warmest summer in 2022. Last summer some spots in Eastern PA had their warmest summer. So although the coastal sections haven’t exceeded 2010 yet, go just to our west and they have had 2010 style heat in recent years. Although the all-time daily highs haven’t been as impressive as 2010 and 201l were to us. Mostly a function of the prevailing wind direction. But for all-time June heat the 2020s stands alone. As we are on track to even surpass June 2021 for 100°+ coverage potentially even beating the 103° all-time June high at EWR and the 102° at Corona. We aren’t going to meet the formal definition of a monsoon climate here. But we have been experiencing aspects of them. Especially with the early heat in June being followed by flooding rains. I remember Summer 2024 being extremely hot in the Poconos, it was the first time in my life I needed air conditioning at 2,000 ft elevation out there, not even the very hot summers of 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002, 2010, 2011, needed that =\ Was Allentown on the list of their hottest summer last year? Mount Pocono too? Oh I pointed out the September / October heat of Monsoons in Asia because I think we might be headed in that direction too, we've had summerlike early-mid Falls lately. Last October-mid November was very summer like and September has been for awhile now. Think we can beat those old records from the 1930s-1960s this decade? I saw a few June 100s records from that time period a few years in the 50s had temperatures of 100+ in June at NYC, even JFK was 99 in May 1969 (which seems crazy to me lol) and NYC hit 101 in June 1966 before the big heat really came in July (for all of us.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Sundog said: 12z GFS has 102 for Manhattan for Tuesday and upper 90s deep into LI. Nice, it sounds like I would be 100+ on Tuesday on that model run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Nice, it sounds like I would be 100+ on Tuesday on that model run too. 12z GGEM pushes the 100s inland on Tuesday though and NYC east stays in the 90s FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Just now, Sundog said: 12z GGEM pushes the 100s inland on Tuesday though and NYC east stays in the 90s FYI. GGEM also has rain for the coast a lot during the winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I think the geese would stay away if people didn't litter so much (same goes for rats). Rats, yes, geese, this was their habitat... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: 87 / 61 WNW wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I remember Summer 2024 being extremely hot in the Poconos, it was the first time in my life I needed air conditioning at 2,000 ft elevation out there, not even the very hot summers of 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002, 2010, 2011, needed that =\ Was Allentown on the list of their hottest summer last year? Mount Pocono too? Oh I pointed out the September / October heat of Monsoons in Asia because I think we might be headed in that direction too, we've had summerlike early-mid Falls lately. Last October-mid November was very summer like and September has been for awhile now. Think we can beat those old records from the 1930s-1960s this decade? I saw a few June 100s records from that time period a few years in the 50s had temperatures of 100+ in June at NYC, even JFK was 99 in May 1969 (which seems crazy to me lol) and NYC hit 101 in June 1966 before the big heat really came in July (for all of us.) The really big extreme for warmth during the 2020s in PA has been Bradford and Reading. All the 2020s summers have landed in the top 10 warmest. With 2024 setting the record for warmest in both locations. So those locations are way too far inland to be influenced by the increased onshore flow here in recent summers. Time Series Summary for BRADFORD REGIONAL AIRPORT, PAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 68.2 0 2 2021 67.3 0 3 2022 67.0 0 - 2020 67.0 0 4 2016 66.5 0 5 2018 66.3 0 6 2012 66.1 1 7 2023 66.0 0 - 2005 66.0 0 - 1991 66.0 0 - 1975 66.0 0 8 1959 65.9 0 9 2011 65.8 0 - 1993 65.8 0 - 1987 65.8 0 10 2019 65.3 0 Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 76.7 0 2 2020 76.6 0 3 2022 76.4 0 - 2010 76.4 0 - 1966 76.4 0 - 1949 76.4 0 4 1955 76.3 1 - 1943 76.3 0 5 2021 76.1 0 6 2016 76.0 0 7 2011 75.9 0 - 2005 75.9 0 - 1952 75.9 0 8 1959 75.6 0 - 1900 75.6 0 9 2012 75.3 0 - 1944 75.3 0 10 2002 75.0 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Little MCS moving into WPA/ SW WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Also missed the point that the warming has become sustained and prolonged even if max temps don't pass previous highs. That's a far bigger CC indicator than how hot it gets. However even with that, we may just challenge that too. Because once we surpass previous baselines, it becomes much easier to hit new all time records. No the bigger indication is how few 0-10 degree days we see. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: The really big extreme for warmth during the 2020s in PA has been Bradford and Reading. All the 2020s summers have landed in the top 10 warmest. With 2024 setting the record for warmest in both locations. So those locations are way too far inland to be influenced by the increased onshore flow here in recent summers. Time Series Summary for BRADFORD REGIONAL AIRPORT, PAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 68.2 0 2 2021 67.3 0 3 2022 67.0 0 - 2020 67.0 0 4 2016 66.5 0 5 2018 66.3 0 6 2012 66.1 1 7 2023 66.0 0 - 2005 66.0 0 - 1991 66.0 0 - 1975 66.0 0 8 1959 65.9 0 9 2011 65.8 0 - 1993 65.8 0 - 1987 65.8 0 10 2019 65.3 0 Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 76.7 0 2 2020 76.6 0 3 2022 76.4 0 - 2010 76.4 0 - 1966 76.4 0 - 1949 76.4 0 4 1955 76.3 1 - 1943 76.3 0 5 2021 76.1 0 6 2016 76.0 0 7 2011 75.9 0 - 2005 75.9 0 - 1952 75.9 0 8 1959 75.6 0 - 1900 75.6 0 9 2012 75.3 0 - 1944 75.3 0 10 2002 75.0 0 wild, are those locations also getting an elevated number of 90 degree (hot) days? Typically in the Poconos we can count on heat during the day but it would always cool off at night so we didn't need air conditioning, we just opened our windows and the outside air would cool down my house at night. 2024 was different as it was hot during the day and at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: No the bigger indication is how few 0-10 degree days we see. WX/PT Yes, in the winter it's much more apparent, though summertime minima and increased rainfall and humidity are also strong indicators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: The really big extreme for warmth during the 2020s in PA has been Bradford and Reading. All the 2020s summers have landed in the top 10 warmest. With 2024 setting the record for warmest in both locations. So those locations are way too far inland to be influenced by the increased onshore flow here in recent summers. Time Series Summary for BRADFORD REGIONAL AIRPORT, PAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 68.2 0 2 2021 67.3 0 3 2022 67.0 0 - 2020 67.0 0 4 2016 66.5 0 5 2018 66.3 0 6 2012 66.1 1 7 2023 66.0 0 - 2005 66.0 0 - 1991 66.0 0 - 1975 66.0 0 8 1959 65.9 0 9 2011 65.8 0 - 1993 65.8 0 - 1987 65.8 0 10 2019 65.3 0 Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 76.7 0 2 2020 76.6 0 3 2022 76.4 0 - 2010 76.4 0 - 1966 76.4 0 - 1949 76.4 0 4 1955 76.3 1 - 1943 76.3 0 5 2021 76.1 0 6 2016 76.0 0 7 2011 75.9 0 - 2005 75.9 0 - 1952 75.9 0 8 1959 75.6 0 - 1900 75.6 0 9 2012 75.3 0 - 1944 75.3 0 10 2002 75.0 0 good to see some of our hotter summers on this list too, though the 2020s have exceeded them in Central PA. 9 2012 75.3 0 - 1944 75.3 0 10 2002 75.0 0 2010 76.4 0 - 1966 76.4 0 - 1949 76.4 0 4 1955 76.3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 20 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Rats, yes, geese, this was their habitat... I couldn't stand that mass killing program that Bloomberg had going on during his administration, one of many things I couldn't stand about that billionaire reincarnation of Attila the Hun (his stature was just as small too.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: good to see some of our hotter summers on this list too, though the 2020s have exceeded them in Central PA. 9 2012 75.3 0 - 1944 75.3 0 10 2002 75.0 0 2010 76.4 0 - 1966 76.4 0 - 1949 76.4 0 4 1955 76.3 1 Yeah, areas west of the sea breeze front in interior SE NY, NJ and PA have seen the fastest summer warming in the East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Yes the 12Z GFS and CMC are back to more reasonable temperatures as the week progresses. From Wednesday on upper 80s to lower 90s appears to be the rule with much cooler temperatures and showers/storms Wednesday night through Friday but let's remember how erratic the models are whereas the Euro has been consistently hot for most of the week and into next weekend. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Nice, it sounds like I would be 100+ on Tuesday on that model run too. 100 to ISP on the 12z GFS on Tuesday. Monday will have a sea breeze. Tuesday is the only real chance at 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1PM Roundup ACY: 89 EWR: 87 New Brnswck: 87 BLM: 86 TEB: 86 LGA: 85a ISP: 84 NYC: 84 TTN: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 44 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: 100 to ISP on the 12z GFS on Tuesday. Monday will have a sea breeze. Tuesday is the only real chance at 100 that 88 at JFK is very obviously wrong, if Farmingdale hits 101 and Islip hits 100, JFK is going to be AT LEAST 101 (there has never been a case when Islip and/or Farmingdale were 100 or higher and JFK was not.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 19 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 1PM Roundup ACY: 89 EWR: 87 New Brnswck: 87 BLM: 86 TEB: 86 LGA: 85a ISP: 84 NYC: 84 TTN: 84 89 here about 5 miles east of JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 42 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, areas west of the sea breeze front in interior SE NY, NJ and PA have seen the fastest summer warming in the East. why has the west been more consistently hot (even near the west coast), did the climate models predict the west would be more affected by the heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 12z EURO has 103 in NYC Monday but down to 84 by 8PM. On the 0z run the temp was still 98 degrees at 8PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Sundog said: 12z EURO has 103 in NYC Monday but down to 84 by 8PM. On the 0z run the temp was still 98 degrees at 8PM. yes typically the sea breeze comes in somewhere between 4-6 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 12z Euro for Monday 2pm temps and wind. Has sea breeze but not as dramatically cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 6 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: 12z Euro for Monday 2pm temps and wind. Has sea breeze but not as dramatically cool Can you post 5PM map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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