LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Also missed the point that the warming has become sustained and prolonged even if max temps don't pass previous highs. That's a far bigger CC indicator than how hot it gets. However even with that, we may just challenge that too. Because once we surpass previous baselines, it becomes much easier to hit new all time records. for it to be prolonged we need to match the 7+ day super heatwaves we had in the past (sometimes multiple in the same summer). Our longest heatwaves are still from 1944, 1953, 1993, 1999, 2002, etc. It will probably happen eventually, but it hasn't yet. Even this upcoming heatwave is the typical 4 day one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: The really interesting thing about inland areas, let's take Newark as an example, is that they have never matched the number of 100 degree days they had in 1949 (8) or 1993 (9). I wonder if there is a ceiling to how much CC can affect inland areas for summer maxima too Don? Factoring in the additional amount of moisture added to the atmosphere because of CC, there might well be..... Even as it is inland relative to NYC, Newark is still on the coastal plain. SSTs are affecting ridge development and placement. The rising moisture may have slowed the rise in high temperatures, but as the climate warms further, the 1949 and 1993 records for 100° days at Newark will likely be broken (perhaps in the next 15 years?). That the climate in the Northeast has grown wetter also has an impact. Both summers were among the driest on record for Newark. The climate models don't do as well on a regional or local basis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: JFK 99 degree days season leaders by year 2010 1 3 1983 1 3 1966 1 3 2019 4 2 2011 4 2 2002 4 2 1999 4 2 1993 4 2 1949 4 2 1948 4 2 2013 11 1 2012 11 1 2006 11 1 2001 11 1 1991 11 1 1986 11 1 1978 11 1 1972 11 1 1969 11 1 1964 11 1 1963 11 1 1959 11 1 1957 11 1 1955 11 1 1952 11 1 Nice, why does 1948 have a yellow square around it, is that because 1948 is the start of the dataset for JFK, Tony? I know all 3 of those in 2010 were 100+ All 3 in 1966 were also 100+ The 2 listed in 1993 were also 100+ The 2 listed in 1948 were also 100+ The 1 from 2013 was 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Tony do you have a list for JFK and NYC in terms of 99 and higher? I know 1949 takes the number one spot for 99+ temperatures at NYC with 5, not sure what is number 1 for JFK, but I know they have the same number of 99 degree temperatures (19) that they have of 100+ temperatures (also 19), which I find absolutely amazing. JFK Airport 1949: 2 days 1993: 2 days Most in any year: 3 days in 1966, 1983 and 2010 Central Park 1949: 5 days (highest on record) 1993: 3 days Most in any year: 5 days in 1949 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Even as it is inland relative to NYC, Newark is still on the coastal plain. SSTs are affecting ridge development and placement. The rising moisture may have slowed the rise in high temperatures, but as the climate warms further, the 1949 and 1993 records for 100° days at Newark will likely be broken (perhaps in the next 15 years?). That the climate in the Northeast has grown wetter also has an impact. Both summers were among the driest on record for Newark. The climate models don't do as well on a regional or local basis. I read (I think from AI.... so not sure if this is accurate) that by 2080 we will see a much steeper rise in extreme heat and our number of 90, 95 and 100 will all double from where they are now, do you think that could be accurate, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, donsutherland1 said: JFK Airport 1949: 2 days 1993: 2 days Most in any year: 3 days in 1966 Central Park 1949: 5 days (highest on record) 1993: 3 days Most in any year: 5 days in 1949 Thanks Don..... in 2010 JFK also had 3 days of 100+ July 4th, July 6th and July 7th, if I remember correctly? (so three days out of four?) The 3 days of 100+ in 1966 at JFK were all consecutive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: JFK Airport 1949: 2 days 1993: 2 days Most in any year: 3 days in 1966 Central Park 1949: 5 days (highest on record) 1993: 3 days Most in any year: 5 days in 1949 also for 100+ days I think the record is 4 from 1953 and 1966 at NYC? and for 100+ days the record is 3 from 1966 and 2010 at JFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks Don..... in 2010 JFK also had 3 days of 100+ July 4th, July 6th and July 7th, if I remember correctly? (so three days out of four?) The 3 days of 100+ in 1966 at JFK were all consecutive? JFK 2010: Jul 4: 101 Jul 6: 101 Jul 7: 100 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 11 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Updated 90 degree days by season 2010 - prsnt 2010 has the station record for all these locations, Tony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: also for 100+ days I think the record is 4 from 1953 and 1966 at NYC? and for 100+ days the record is 3 from 1966 and 2010 at JFK? JFK Year Rank Days >= 100 °F 2010 1 3 1966 1 3 2011 3 2 1993 3 2 1983 3 2 1948 3 2 2013 7 1 1999 7 1 1972 7 1 1963 7 1 1957 7 1 NYC Year Rank Days >= 100 °F 1966 1 4 1953 1 4 1993 3 3 1977 3 3 1955 3 3 1948 3 3 1944 3 3 2011 8 2 2010 8 2 1999 8 2 1991 8 2 1980 8 2 1957 8 2 1954 8 2 1949 8 2 1937 8 2 1936 8 2 1933 8 2 1926 8 2 1901 8 2 2012 21 1 2001 21 1 1995 21 1 1952 21 1 1934 21 1 1930 21 1 1918 21 1 1917 21 1 1911 21 1 1898 21 1 1881 21 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: JFK 2010: Jul 4: 101 Jul 6: 101 Jul 7: 100 The high of 101 on July 4th at JFK, was 4 degrees higher than Central Park if I remember correctly and also higher than LGA. I think EWR was the only other official ASOS in the area to reach 100 on that day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: JFK Year Rank Days >= 100 °F 2010 1 3 1966 1 3 2011 3 2 1993 3 2 1983 3 2 1948 3 2 2013 7 1 1999 7 1 1972 7 1 1963 7 1 1957 7 1 NYC Year Rank Days >= 100 °F 1966 1 4 1953 1 4 1993 3 3 1977 3 3 1955 3 3 1948 3 3 1944 3 3 2011 8 2 2010 8 2 1999 8 2 1991 8 2 1980 8 2 1957 8 2 1954 8 2 1949 8 2 1937 8 2 1936 8 2 1933 8 2 1926 8 2 1901 8 2 2012 21 1 2001 21 1 1995 21 1 1952 21 1 1934 21 1 1930 21 1 1918 21 1 1917 21 1 1911 21 1 1898 21 1 1881 21 1 Thanks Tony, that's exactly how I remember it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: The high of 101 on July 4th at JFK, was 4 degrees higher than Central Park if I remember correctly and also higher than LGA. I think EWR was the only other official ASOS in the area to reach 100 on that day. 2010: Jul 4 High temperature JFK: 101 EWR: 101 LGA: 98 ISP: 97 NYC: 96 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I read (I think from AI.... so not sure if this is accurate) that by 2080 we will see a much steeper rise in extreme heat and our number of 90, 95 and 100 will all double from where they are now, do you think that could be accurate, Don? Perhaps. Let's say the temperature rises 1.5C to 2.0C from the 1991-2020 average. That would mean, 87°-89° days during 1991-2020 would then be 90° days, on average. That would increase the average annual number of 90° days as follows: JFK: From 10.8 to 22.8; LGA: From 21.8 to 37.9; NYC: From 17.4 to 32.9; Newark: From 28.3 to 46.8. Extremes increase in non-linear fashion, so that actual incidence would probably increase somewhat faster than overall temperatures. So, it seems plausible, but that's far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 12 hours ago, SACRUS said: 102 July 1, 1963 all others were 99 in June we have the opportunity to have the earliest 100 degree temperature at both NYC and JFK next week.... not sure what NYC's record is but I think it's from 1966 Tony? Was it earlier than the extreme heat we will have next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks Don..... in 2010 JFK also had 3 days of 100+ July 4th, July 6th and July 7th, if I remember correctly? (so three days out of four?) The 3 days of 100+ in 1966 at JFK were all consecutive? Yes. I fixed my post as I accidentally omitted 1983 and 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Expanded lists of June record high maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures for the New York City area are below: The hilarious thing about JFK is they hit 99 4 times in June but not 100 (not yet)..... the other hilarious thing is they also hit 99 once in May, on May 29, 1969.... which shows that not only is 100 possible in June at JFK, it's also inevitable. Let's see if this is the June that will do it. Having the same record high for May AND June is not something I would expect to last..... Regarding NYC, what I find so ironic is that the record highs for next Monday and Tuesday (both 96) are from 1888....... This is the earliest extreme heat we have seen since 2012 when we were in the upper 90s around this time around the entire area (including JFK). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 7 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 2010: Jul 4 High temperature JFK: 101 EWR: 101 LGA: 98 ISP: 97 NYC: 96 Yes, JFK exceeded NYC by 5 degrees on that day and yet no one seems to remember it (except me)-- that day really stood out to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 26 minutes ago, SACRUS said: JFK 99 degree days season leaders by year 2010 1 3 1983 1 3 1966 1 3 2019 4 2 2011 4 2 2002 4 2 1999 4 2 1993 4 2 1949 4 2 1948 4 2 2013 11 1 2012 11 1 2006 11 1 2001 11 1 1991 11 1 1986 11 1 1978 11 1 1972 11 1 1969 11 1 1964 11 1 1963 11 1 1959 11 1 1957 11 1 1955 11 1 1952 11 1 incidentally that 1 99 degree day in 1969 is the earliest on record, with a high of 99 on May 29, 1969, I think it's pretty crazy that the record high for both May and June is 99, it shows that June has the potential to be hotter than 99 and we're overdue to break that June monthly record at JFK (which was tied 4 times). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The importance of an offshore wind at JFK cannot be overstated. The ultimate June example: June 27, 1966 highs: Central Park: 101; JFK Airport: 82. June 27, 1966, is that the earliest 100 degree temperature recorded at NYC? So next week we have the potential to have our earliest 100 degree temperature at both NYC and JFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: 90 degree days for June back to 2010, with the upcoming stretch should put this year solidly in the top 3/5 omg JFK already had 8 90 degree days at this point in 2010 and NYC only had 4? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 47 minutes ago, FPizz said: It was a joke because Sundog can't handle it lol. Plenty of personal stations though were 82, but we throw those out. In manhattan? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. It can happen, especially with an offshore flow. July 23, 1972 is a great example: JFK: 100; Central Park: 94. wild, I didn't know about that one Don and that was before the overfoliage era at Central Park. It's even more than the 5 degree difference on July 4, 2010 (101 at JFK, 96 at NYC). Do you know offhand what the high at Central Park was on May 29, 1969 when JFK had their one and only 99 in May, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 50 minutes ago, FPizz said: It was a joke because Sundog can't handle it lol. Plenty of personal stations though were 82, but we throw those out. 44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: a few days ago NYC exceeded LGA by 1 degree. Fortunately some of us have excellent memories and remember these things.... also what was going on in July 1966 when the temperature at NYC was only 103 and LGA was 107 and JFK was 104 and EWR was 105? Were those foliage issues too? Temperatures in a park will be cooler, with or without foliage issues, folks.... Bro the location and foliage is not the same as it was in 1966 in Central Park. I 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: In manhattan? Everyone knows that if you want to find reprieve from the heat you head to Manhattan 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Sundog said: Bro the location and foliage is not the same as it was in 1966 in Central Park. I Right thats my point and yet Central Park was also cooler by a significant margin in 1966 (and apparently also in 1973 when the high temperature at JFK was 100 and only 94 at Central Park.) I think the real conclusion to draw is that the park isn't representative of Manhattan as a whole and when you measure temperatures in a park you'd expect them to be lower than they would be in the concrete jungle or at an airport. Sure Central Park has foliage issues, but you'd expect their temperatures to be cooler even without those issues, as happened in 1966 and 1973. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Sundog said: Everyone knows that if you want to find reprieve from the heat you head to Manhattan well, the park maybe (which is what thousands of people do), but not in the concrete jungle of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, LibertyBell said: Right thats my point and yet Central Park was also cooler by a significant margin in 1966 (and apparently also in 1973 when the high temperature at JFK was 100 and only 94 at Central Park.) I think the real conclusion to draw is that the park isn't representative of Manhattan as a whole and when you measure temperatures in a park you'd expect them to be lower than they would be in the concrete jungle or at an airport. Sure Central Park has foliage issues, but you'd expect their temperatures to be cooler even without those issues, as happened in 1966 and 1973. Central Park wasn't wildly different on average compared to the surrounding stations until about 25 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, Sundog said: Central Park wasn't wildly different on average compared to the surrounding stations until about 25 years ago. Yes no doubt there are major foliage issues now and I think that manifests itself most in wet patterns like we were in until recently. It's much less of an issue when we're in a dry pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Incidentally, there's a major push in NYC and other large urban cities like Chicago, to greenify the city. Because UHI has major health implications too. The pledge is to make the city at least 30% green by 2030 and remove a lot of the concrete pollution where people live. We're also seeing it with the push for rooftop gardens, urban farming, community gardens, etc. So maybe greening the city will help control UHI and its health implications on people (while also cleaning the air, as more greenery means less air pollution and lower asthma rates too.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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