2025 hurricane season forecast contest -- entries will be accepted to Tuesday June 10, 06z 11th

[bkviking]

16/9/4

[Normandy Ho]

17/8/5

[jmearroz]

17/8/4

[nvck]

18/9/4

[NC US Geological Survice]

14/10/2

[hudsonvalley21]

18/9/5

 

[George BM]

17/8/4

ACE: 140

[Roger Smith]

_________Table of forecasts______________

 

FORECASTER (order of entry) ______________ TS _ H _ M

matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 22 _ 11 _ 6 

Metwatch (NW-1, 13) _______________________ 21 _ 10 _ 4 

Roger Smith (27) ___________________________ 20 _ 11 _ 3

CHSVol (13) ________________________________ 20 _ 10 _ 4

The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) ______________ 20 __ 9 _ 5 

NeffsvilleWx (10) ____________________________19 __ 8 _ 5

marsman (14) _______________________________19 __ 5 _ 3 

ldub23 (5) __________________________________ 18 _ 10 _ 5 

Rhino16 (24) ________________________________ 18 _ 10 _ 4

Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) ________________18 _ 10 _ 3

hudsonvalley21 (34) ________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 5

Yanksfan (8) ________________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 4 

nvck (32) ___________________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 4

WYorksWeather (NW-4) ____________________ 17 _ 12 _ 6

Tallis Rockwell (18) __________________________ 17 _ 11 _ 5 

Torch Tiger (17) _____________________________ 17 __ 9 _ 4

yoda (22) ____________________________________17 __ 9 _ 4

___ consensus _______________________________ 17 __ 9 _ 4 (median)

Normandy Ho (30) __________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 5

BarryStantonGBP (1) ________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4

wxallannj (21) ________________________________17 __ 8 _ 4

jmearroz (31) ________________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4

George BM (35) _____________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4

Kaari (NW-7) ________________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4

cnimbus (6) _________________________________ 17 __ 7 _ 4

FPizz (9) ____________________________________ 17 __ 7 _ 4

wxdude64 (28) ______________________________17 __ 7 _ 3

jconsor (3) __________________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 5 

BKViking (29) _______________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 4

___ UKMO ___________________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 4

LakeNormanStormin (7) _____________________16 __ 8 _ 4

Floydbuster (12) ____________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4

WxWatcher007 (25) ________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4

___ NOAA ___________________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4 

Newman (15) ________________________________ 16 __ 7 _ 3

vpbob21 (19) _________________________________15 __ 7 _ 4

ineedsnow (2) _______________________________15 __ 7 _ 3

cardinalland (14) _____________________________15 __ 6 _ 3 

NC USGS^ (33) ______________________________ 14 _ 10 _ 2

Ga Wx (20) __________________________________ 14 __ 9 _ 3

LongBeachSurfFreak (4) ____________________ 14 __ 8 _ 4

Retrobuc (11) ________________________________ 14 __ 6 _ 3

StormchaserChuck (23) _____________________ 13 __ 7 _ 4

Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) ___________________ 12 __ 9 _ 4

Hotair (26) ___________________________________ 11 __ 4 _ 2 

=================

mean (excl expert fcsts) is 16.8 __ 8.3 _ 4.0

^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d.

For NW entries, an equivalent order of entry to Am-Wx entries is provided for first and second entries 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Anyone who missed the contest notice and wants in, or who wishes to amend a forecast as given above, can do so today ... after that the contest is closed to further entries for scoring purposes. As of present moment, I had received six entries on Net-weather and none on the Irish site which provided four or five in past years. I am a member there so I guess I will be their sole representative unless somebody shows an interest today. 

[Roger Smith]

• _________Table of current forecast errors (over and above current count 13 4 3) ____________

 

... ... ... alternate scoring in brackets is for 13 5 3 which would occur if Melissa becomes a hurricane.

... ... ... ... second alternate is for addition of 14th named storm which one way or another takes count to 14 4 3 or 14 5 3

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ errors to date __ points deducted _ TOTAL SCORE

FORECASTER (order of entry) _____________TS _ H _ M _ errors (scoring) _ 13 4 3 (alt 13 5 3) (2nd, 3rd alt 14 4 3 & 14 5 3)

matty40s (NW-3) __________________________ 9 __ 7 _ 3 __-22.5_-28_-6__ 43.5 (51.5)_ (48. 56)

Metwatch (NW-1, 13) _______________________ 8 __ 6 _ 1 __-18 _-21_-1 ____ 60 _ (66)__ (64, 70)

Roger Smith (27) ___________________________ 7 __ 7 _ 0___-14 _-28_0 ____ 58 _ (65) _ (61.5, 68.5)

CHSVol (13) ________________________________ 7 __ 6 _ 1___-14 _-21_-1 ____ 64 _ (70) _ (67.5, 73.5)

The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) _______________7 __ 5 _ 2___-14 _-15_-3____ 68 _ (73) _ (71.5, 76.5)

NeffsvilleWx (10) ____________________________6 __4 _ 2___-10.5_-10_-3 __ 76.5_(80.5)_ (79.5, 83.5)

marsman (14) _______________________________6 __ 1 _ 0___-10.5 _ -1 _ 0 __ 88.5 (89.5) _ (91.5, 92.5)

ldub23 (5) __________________________________ 5 __ 6 _ 2___-7.5_-21_-3 ___ 68.5 (74.5) __(71, 77)

Rhino16 (24) ________________________________ 5 __ 6 _ 1___-7.5_-21_-1 ___ 70.5 (76.5) __(73, 79)

Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) _______________ 5 __ 6 _ 0___-7.5_-21_ 0 ___ 71.5 (77.5) __ (74, 80)

hudsonvalley21 (34) ________________________ 5 __ 5 _ 2___-7.5_-15_-3 ___ 74.5 (79.5) __ (77, 82)

Yanksfan (8) ________________________________ 5 __ 5 _ 1___-7.5_ -15_-1 ___ 76.5 (81.5) __ (79, 84)

nvck (32) ___________________________________ 5 __ 5 _ 1___ -7.5_-15_-1 ___ 76.5 (81.5) __ (79, 84)

WYorksWeather (NW-4) ____________________4 __ 8 _ 3___ -5_-36_-6 ____ 53 (61) ____ (55, 63)

Tallis Rockwell (18) _________________________ 4 __ 7 _ 2___ -5_-28_-3 ____ 64 (71) ____ (66, 73)

Torch Tiger (17) _____________________________4 __ 5 _ 1___ -5_-15_-1 ____ 79 (84) _____ (81, 86)

yoda (22) ___________________________________ 4 __ 5 _ 1___ -5_-15_-1 ____ 79 (84) _____ (81, 86)

___ consensus __ (median) ___________________4 __ 5 _ 1___ -5_-15_-1 ____ 79 (84) _____ (81, 86)

Normandy Ho (30) __________________________ 4 __ 4 _ 2___-5_-10_-3 ____ 82 (86) _____ (84, 88)

BarryStantonGBP (1) _________________________4 __ 4 _ 1___ -5_-10_-1 ____ 84 (88) ____ (86, 90)

wxallannj (21) ________________________________ 4 __ 4 _ 1___-5_-10_-1 ____ 84 (88) ____ (86, 90)

jmearroz (31) _________________________________4 __ 4 _ 1___ -5_-10_-1 ____ 84 (88) ____ (86, 90)

George BM (35) ______________________________4 __ 4 _ 1___ -5_-10_-1 ____ 84 (88) ____ (86, 90)

Kaari (NW-7) _________________________________4 __ 4 _ 1___ -5_-10_-1 ____ 84 (88) ____ (86, 90)

cnimbus (6) __________________________________4 __ 3 _ 1___ -5_-6_-1 _____ 88 (91) ____ (90, 93)

FPizz (9) _____________________________________4 __ 3 _ 1___ -5_-6_-1 _____ 88 (91) ____ (90, 93)

wxdude64 (28) ______________________________4__ 3 _ 0___ -5_-6_ 0 _____ 89 (92) ____ (91, 94) 

jconsor (3) ___________________________________3 __ 5 _ 2___ -3_-15_-3 ___ 79 (84) __ (80.5, 85.5)

BKViking (29) ________________________________3 __ 5 _ 1___ -3_-15_-1 ____ 81 (86) __ (82.5, 87.5)

___ UKMO ____________________________________3 __ 5 _ 1___ -3_-15_-1 ____ 81 (86) __ (82.5, 87.5)

LakeNormanStormin (7) ______________________3 __ 4 _ 1___ -3_-10_-1 ____ 86 (90) __ (87.5, 91.5)

Floydbuster (12) ______________________________3 __ 4 _ 1___ -3_-10_-1 ____ 86 (90) __ (87.5, 91.5)

WxWatcher007 (25) __________________________3 __ 4 _ 1___ -3_-10_-1 ____ 86 (90) __ (87.5, 91.5)

___ NOAA _____________________________________3 __ 4 _ 1___ -3_-10_-1 ____ 86 (90) __ (87.5, 91.5)

Newman (15) _________________________________ 3 __ 3 _ 0___ -3 _-6 _0 ____ 91 (94) __ (92.5, 95.5)

vpbob21 (19) __________________________________2 __ 3 _ 1___-1.5 _-6 _-1____91.5 (94.5)__ (92.5, 95.5)

ineedsnow (2) ________________________________ 2 __3 _ 0 ___-1.5 _-6  _0 ___92.5 (95.5)__ (93.5, 96.5)

cardinalland (14) ______________________________ 2 __2 _ 0 ___-1.5 _-3 _0 ___ 95.5 (97.5)__ (96.5, 98.5)

NC USGS^ (33) ________________________________ 1 __ 6 _ 1 ___ -0.5_-21 _-1 __ 77.5 (83.5) _ (78, 84)

Ga Wx (20) ____________________________________ 1 __ 5 _ 0___-0.5_-15 _ 0 ___ 84.5 (89.5) _ (85, 90)

LongBeachSurfFreak (4) _______________________1 __ 4 _ 1___ -0.5_-10 _-1 ___ 88.5 (92.5) _ (89, 93)

Retrobuc (11) ___________________________________1 __ 2 _ 0___ -0.5_-3 _ 0 ____96.5 (98.5) _ (97, 99)

StormchaserChuck (23) _______________________ 0 __ 3 _ 1 ___ 0 __-6 _-1 ____ 93 (96) ___ (92.5, 95.5)

Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) _____________________ 1 __ 5 _ 1 ___-0.5_-15 _-1 ___ 83.5 (88.5)__ (82.5, 87.5)

Hotair (26) _____________________________________ 2 __ 0 _ 1 __ -1.5 _ 0 __-1 ___ 97.5 (96.5) __ (96, 95)

=================

mean now required (excl expert fcsts) is 3.8 _ 4.3 _ 1.0  = 100 -4 -12 -1 = 83 (88) (89, 94) approx

^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d.

For NW entries, an equivalent order of entry to Am-Wx entries is provided for first and second entries 

________________________________

Above represents storms still required. 

Because these are residues of initial forecasts, some are now inconsistent with possible reality, meaning more hurricanes than storms (nobody is yet stuck with more majors than hurricanes required). 

The scores based on this being end of season are shown. These scores can still improve going forward (except where errors are now zero or +1 or +2 shown in red type for two forecasts of 2 majors and now also one forecast of 11 storms and one of 12 (count has reached 13) -- these are the first forecasts to fall below the current count). Scores will be shown in rank order as we get closer to end of contest season. 

(Scoring is based on a formula where errors (E) are scored by (E+E^2)/2 in each category, with storms then divided again by 2. An error of 3 _ 2 _ 1 is scored 

100 - (0.5) * ((3+9)/2) - ((2+4)/2) - ((1+1)/2)

100 - (0.5) * 6 - 3.0 - 1.0

100 - 3.0 - 3.0 - 1.0 = 93.0 

___________________________________________-

To derive a potential score if none of the alternatives in table are correct, and both Melissa and potential named storm 14 are hurricanes, take the last score and add your number of hurricanes minus one (because your error will drop by one more improvement on H than the table value, as an example, a forecaster now shown with error 4 under H is already hypothetically at error 3 for the second and the last columns, so would improve from 3 to 2 in a double hurricane outcome and improve by another 3 points over and above the 4 shown in the table alternatives -- the exception would be if your remaining error goes from 0 to -1, or from -1 to -2; then you would need to take off points for the double hurricane) ... to derive a potential score for one of the two going major, add the number of your error under M (third column), as all reductions improve by that number. For example if your current M error is 2, it will still be 2 in any of the alternative scoring ... obviously don't apply to columns one or three as these do not add hurricanes, only tropical storms. Add your M error number to the values in columns 2 and 4 and you'll have a potential score for one or two hurricanes with one going major. ... Finally to estimate score if a 15th named storm appears after all of the above, take the differential in your favor from scoring errors under column S ... take the differential two ahead of your current position ... for example if you are currently losing 14 for error 7, then in columns three and four you are losing 10.5 for error 6 ... so what you then need to do is add three points as your new S error will be 7.5 for 5. 

Scoring table will be reposted in November in order of then current scoring. 

[Roger Smith]

Your current implied forecasts for rest of season are shown in previous post -- where it is assumed Gabrielle will become a non-major hurricane at some future point. 

We are past the halfway point of climatology for seasonal totals, although a few seasons can be found where this was before the halfway point (not many). Some of us are going to need a finish like 1887 to get anywhere near our forecasts. I would have to say the two forecasts scored in the table (Hotair, retrobuc) are looking like the favorites at this point. 

[Roger Smith]

Well unexpectedly Gabrielle did intensify all the way to major (cat 4) so I have modified the table of storms required.

Will probably be modifying it again soon to get the 8th named storm into the table. 

[Roger Smith]

Humberto brings the count to 8/2/2 and the forecast gives me enough confidence to score from 8/3/2. Apparently there is some potential to go to 8/3/3 eventually and if so the scoring will be adjusted. It will improve all scores except two already at zero error for two majors; those two scores would drop by 1.0. Scores with errors of 1  for major hurricanes will improve by 1; scores with errors of 2 will improve by 2 (from 3 to 1 error deductions); scores with errors of 3 will improve by 3, etc.

 

[Roger Smith]

Once again revised scoring table to account for (a) Humberto now a major hurricane, and (b) Imelda very likely to form and reach at least tropical storm status.

As no forecasters have fewer than 4 hurricanes forecast, for Imelda to reach hurricane status will improve scores by 1 if you predicted 4 hurricanes, by 2 if you predicted five, by 3 if you predicted six, etc. (errors reduced from -1 to 0; -3 to -1; -6 to -3; -10 to -6, etc). 

I have added a potential score for that possible outcome, in brackets, after the indicated score. 

UPDATE edit Sep 30 06z ... Imelda about to become a hurricane apparently so I have edited the scoring table to reflect that likely outcome and to edit the H components of error and score deduction. Onwards and ever upwards. 

[Roger Smith]

Jerry has now arrived, and is predicted to become a hurricane briefly southeast of Bermuda. This causes me to edit the table of scoring above, the potential for 10 5 3 is still in brackets and now 10 4 3 is scored. If we get further action in October I will post an actual scoring table in correct order, this one is basically upside down with a few exceptions.

[Roger Smith]

We have to count Karen the stats padding STS, it probably won't harm most peoples' scoring anyway. I am editing the scoring post. 

[Roger Smith]

The NHC has named Lorenzo in the tropical Atlantic, another likely fish storm but hey we'll take what we can get. Scoring tables will be adjusted yet again. Jerry disappeared so no chance of becoming a hurricane. They say Lorenzo has an outside chance. 

I am guessing the coastal low will get a name a few days from now when it's out over warmer waters. That will be Melissa, or Nestor, or ...

[Roger Smith]

Melissa has arrived, and the scoring table has been revised again. It now has three potential alternative scores for these possible outcomes: 

After the scoring on current 13 4 3 ... second column is for Melissa becoming a hurricane.

Third column is for a 14th named storm occurring after Melissa, in the event Melissa fails to achieve hurricane status, and also the 14th storm does not reach H. 

Fourth column is for a 14th named storm and either Melissa became a hurricane or the 14th storm does so.

There are notes to explain how to derive other estimates not shown in the table, such as two more hurricanes out of those two storms, and/or one hurricane becoming major.

Contest situation is interesting in that about a dozen forecasts stand some chance of winning at this point. If we get a November like 1887, even more would be in the running (I think there were three or four named storms and two were hurricanes in that distant season). 

The highest I could imagine this count going now is probably 16 6 4, the most likely outcome is 14 5 3. 

[ncforecaster89]

Hi Roger!  Hope all is well with you and yours.  It’s great to see you continuing to keep this tradition alive and all the hard work you put into it is greatly appreciated.  
 

I didn’t provide a forecast this season for the contest, myself, as I missed the deadline to do so.  
 

That aside, it’s highly likely (85%) that Melissa will achieve major hurricane intensity and the probabilities are increasing (50%) that it might even become a Category 5 tempest.  Consequently, the minimum seasonal totals are unlikely to be less than 14/5/4, imho.  We may get an additional NS and/or hurricane added to those figures but I think 15/6/4 will be the ceiling, at this point.  I’ll share that I had 17/8/4 as my definitive June projections for informational purposes.  
 

Thanks again for doing this work!
 

Tony 

p.s. the probabilities listed above are simply my own best estimates at the time of this posting.