2025 hurricane season forecast contest -- entries will be accepted to Tuesday June 10, 06z 11th

[bkviking]

16/9/4

[Normandy Ho]

17/8/5

[jmearroz]

17/8/4

[nvck]

18/9/4

[NC US Geological Survice]

14/10/2

[hudsonvalley21]

18/9/5

 

[George BM]

17/8/4

ACE: 140

[Roger Smith]

_________Table of forecasts______________

 

FORECASTER (order of entry) ______________ TS _ H _ M

matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 22 _ 11 _ 6 

Metwatch (NW-1, 13) _______________________ 21 _ 10 _ 4 

Roger Smith (27) ___________________________ 20 _ 11 _ 3

CHSVol (13) ________________________________ 20 _ 10 _ 4

The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) ______________ 20 __ 9 _ 5 

NeffsvilleWx (10) ____________________________19 __ 8 _ 5

marsman (14) _______________________________19 __ 5 _ 3 

ldub23 (5) __________________________________ 18 _ 10 _ 5 

Rhino16 (24) ________________________________ 18 _ 10 _ 4

Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) ________________18 _ 10 _ 3

hudsonvalley21 (34) ________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 5

Yanksfan (8) ________________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 4 

nvck (32) ___________________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 4

WYorksWeather (NW-4) ____________________ 17 _ 12 _ 6

Tallis Rockwell (18) __________________________ 17 _ 11 _ 5 

Torch Tiger (17) _____________________________ 17 __ 9 _ 4

yoda (22) ____________________________________17 __ 9 _ 4

___ consensus _______________________________ 17 __ 9 _ 4 (median)

Normandy Ho (30) __________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 5

BarryStantonGBP (1) ________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4

wxallannj (21) ________________________________17 __ 8 _ 4

jmearroz (31) ________________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4

George BM (35) _____________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4

Kaari (NW-7) ________________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4

cnimbus (6) _________________________________ 17 __ 7 _ 4

FPizz (9) ____________________________________ 17 __ 7 _ 4

wxdude64 (28) ______________________________17 __ 7 _ 3

jconsor (3) __________________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 5 

BKViking (29) _______________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 4

___ UKMO ___________________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 4

LakeNormanStormin (7) _____________________16 __ 8 _ 4

Floydbuster (12) ____________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4

WxWatcher007 (25) ________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4

___ NOAA ___________________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4 

Newman (15) ________________________________ 16 __ 7 _ 3

vpbob21 (19) _________________________________15 __ 7 _ 4

ineedsnow (2) _______________________________15 __ 7 _ 3

cardinalland (14) _____________________________15 __ 6 _ 3 

NC USGS^ (33) ______________________________ 14 _ 10 _ 2

Ga Wx (20) __________________________________ 14 __ 9 _ 3

LongBeachSurfFreak (4) ____________________ 14 __ 8 _ 4

Retrobuc (11) ________________________________ 14 __ 6 _ 3

StormchaserChuck (23) _____________________ 13 __ 7 _ 4

Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) ___________________ 12 __ 9 _ 4

Hotair (26) ___________________________________ 11 __ 4 _ 2 

=================

mean (excl expert fcsts) is 16.8 __ 8.3 _ 4.0

^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d.

For NW entries, an equivalent order of entry to Am-Wx entries is provided for first and second entries 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Anyone who missed the contest notice and wants in, or who wishes to amend a forecast as given above, can do so today ... after that the contest is closed to further entries for scoring purposes. As of present moment, I had received six entries on Net-weather and none on the Irish site which provided four or five in past years. I am a member there so I guess I will be their sole representative unless somebody shows an interest today. 

[Roger Smith]

• _________Table of current forecast errors (over and above current count 12 4 3) ____________

 

... ... ... alternate scoring in brackets is for 12 5 3 which would occur if Lorenzo becomes a hurricane.

... ... ... ... second alternate is for addition of 13th named storm which one way or another takes count to 13 5 3

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ errors to date __ points deducted _ TOTAL SCORE

FORECASTER (order of entry) _____________TS _ H _ M _ errors (scoring) _ 12 4 3 (alt 12 5 3) (2nd alt 13 5 3)

matty40s (NW-3) __________________________ 10 __ 7 _ 3 __-27.5 _-28_-6___ 39.5 (46.5)_ (51.5)

Metwatch (NW-1, 13) _______________________ 9 __ 6 _ 1 __-22.5 _-21_-1 ___ 55.5 (61.5)_ (66)

Roger Smith (27) ___________________________ 8 __ 7 _ 0___-18 _-28_0 ____ 54 _ (61) _(65)

CHSVol (13) ________________________________ 8 __ 6 _ 1___-18 _-21_-1 ____ 60 _ (66) _(70)

The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) _______________8 __ 5 _ 2___-18 _-15_-3____ 64 _ (69) _(73)

NeffsvilleWx (10) ____________________________7 __4 _ 2___-14 _-10_-3 ____ 73 _ (77) _ (80.5)

marsman (14) _______________________________7 __ 1 _ 0___-14 _ -1 _ 0 _____ 85 _ (86) _ (89.5)

ldub23 (5) __________________________________ 6 __ 6 _ 2___-10.5_-21_-3 __ 65.5 (71.5) __(74.5)

Rhino16 (24) ________________________________ 6 __ 6 _ 1___-10.5_-21_-1 __  67.5 (73.5) __(76.5)

Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) _______________ 6 __ 6 _ 0___-10.5_-21_ 0 ___ 68.5 (74.5) __(77.5)

hudsonvalley21 (34) ________________________ 6 __ 5 _ 2___-10.5_-15_-3 __ 71.5 (76.5) __ (79.5)

Yanksfan (8) ________________________________ 6 __ 5 _ 1___-10.5_ -15_-1 __ 73.5 (78.5) __ (81.5)

nvck (32) ___________________________________ 6 __ 5 _ 1___ -10.5_-15_-1 __ 73.5 (78.5) __ (81.5)

WYorksWeather (NW-4) ____________________5 __ 8 _ 3___ -7.5_-36_-6___50.5 (58.5) __ (61)

Tallis Rockwell (18) _________________________ 5 __ 7 _ 2___ -7.5_-28_-3___61.5 (68.5) __ (71)

Torch Tiger (17) _____________________________5 __ 5 _ 1___ -7.5_-15_-1____76.5 (81.5) __ (84)

yoda (22) ___________________________________ 5 __ 5 _ 1___ -7.5_-15_-1____76.5 (81.5) __ (84)

___ consensus __ (median) ___________________5 __ 5 _ 1___ -7.5_-15_-1____76.5 (81.5) __ (84)

Normandy Ho (30) __________________________ 5 __ 4 _ 2___-7.5_-10_-3___79.5 (83.5)__ (86)

BarryStantonGBP (1) _________________________5 __ 4 _ 1___ -7.5_-10_-1____81.5 (85.5)__ (88)

wxallannj (21) ________________________________ 5 __ 4 _ 1___ -7.5_-10_-1____81.5 (85.5)__ (88)

jmearroz (31) _________________________________5 __ 4 _ 1___ -7.5_-10_-1____81.5 (85.5)__ (88)

George BM (35) ______________________________5 __ 4 _ 1___ -7.5_-10_-1____81.5 (85.5)__ (88)

Kaari (NW-7) _________________________________5 __ 4 _ 1___ -7.5_-10_-1____81.5 (85.5)__ (88)

cnimbus (6) __________________________________5 __ 3 _ 1___ -7.5_-6_-1 ____ 85.5 (88.5) __ (91)

FPizz (9) _____________________________________5 __ 3 _ 1___ -7.5_-6_-1 ____ 85.5 (88.5) __ (91)

wxdude64 (28) ______________________________ 5__ 3 _ 0___ -7.5_-6_ 0 ____ 86.5 (89.5) __ (92)

jconsor (3) ___________________________________ 4 __ 5 _ 2___ -5_-15_-3 ___ 77 _ (82)__ (84)

BKViking (29) ________________________________ 4 __ 5 _ 1___ -5_-15_-1 ____ 79 _ (84)__ (86)

___ UKMO ____________________________________ 4 __ 5 _ 1___ -5_-15_-1 ____ 79 _ (84)__ (86)

LakeNormanStormin (7) ______________________ 4 __ 4 _ 1___ -5_-10_-1 ____ 84 _ (88)__ (90)

Floydbuster (12) ______________________________ 4 __ 4 _ 1___ -5_-10_-1 ____ 84 _ (88)__ (90)

WxWatcher007 (25) __________________________ 4 __ 4 _ 1___ -5_-10_-1 ____ 84 _ (88)__ (90)

___ NOAA _____________________________________ 4 __ 4 _ 1___ -5_-10_-1 ____ 84 _ (88)__ (90)

Newman (15) __________________________________4 __ 3 _ 0___ -5 _-6 _0 ____ 89 _ (92)__ (94)

vpbob21 (19) __________________________________ 3 __ 3 _ 1___ -3 _-6 _-1 ____ 90 _ (93)__ (94.5)

ineedsnow (2) _________________________________3 __ 3 _ 0 ___-3 _-6  _0 ____ 91 _ (94)__ (95.5)

cardinalland (14) _______________________________3 __ 2 _ 0 ___-3 _-3 _ 0 ____ 94 _ (96)__ (97.5)

NC USGS^ (33) ________________________________ 2 __ 6 _ 1 ___-1.5_-21 _-1 ___ 76.5 (82.5) (83.5)

Ga Wx (20) ____________________________________ 2 __ 5 _ 0___ -1.5_-15 _ 0 ___ 83.5 (88.5) (89.5)

LongBeachSurfFreak (4) _______________________2 __ 4 _ 1___ -1.5_-10 _-1 ___ 87.5 (91.5) (92.5)

Retrobuc (11) ___________________________________2 __ 2 _ 0___ -1.5_-3 _ 0 ___ 95.5 (97.5) (98.5)

StormchaserChuck (23) _______________________ 1 __ 3 _ 1___ -0.5_-6 _-1 ___ 92.5 (95.5) (96)

Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) _____________________ 0 __ 5 _ 1___ 0 _ -15 _-1 ___ 84 _ (89)__ (88.5)

Hotair (26) _____________________________________ 1 __ 0 _ 1 __ -0.5 _ 0 __-1 __ 98.5 (97.5) (96.5)

=================

mean now required (excl expert fcsts) is 4.8 _ 4.3 _ 1.0  = 100 -7 -12 -1 = 80 (85) (88) approx

^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d.

For NW entries, an equivalent order of entry to Am-Wx entries is provided for first and second entries 

________________________________

Above represents storms still required. 

Because these are residues of initial forecasts, some are now inconsistent with possible reality, meaning more hurricanes than storms (nobody is yet stuck with more majors than hurricanes required). 

The scores based on this being end of season are shown. These scores can still improve going forward (except where errors are now zero or +1 shown in red type for two forecasts of 2 majors and now also one forecast of 11 storms (count has reached 12) -- these are the first forecasts to fall below the current count). Scores will be shown in rank order as we get closer to end of contest season. 

(Scoring is based on a formula where errors (E) are scored by (E+E^2)/2 in each category, with storms then divided again by 2. An error of 3 _ 2 _ 1 is scored 

100 - (0.5) * ((3+9)/2) - ((2+4)/2) - ((1+1)/2)

100 - (0.5) * 6 - 3.0 - 1.0

100 - 3.0 - 3.0 - 1.0 = 93.0 

 

[Roger Smith]

Your current implied forecasts for rest of season are shown in previous post -- where it is assumed Gabrielle will become a non-major hurricane at some future point. 

We are past the halfway point of climatology for seasonal totals, although a few seasons can be found where this was before the halfway point (not many). Some of us are going to need a finish like 1887 to get anywhere near our forecasts. I would have to say the two forecasts scored in the table (Hotair, retrobuc) are looking like the favorites at this point. 

[Roger Smith]

Well unexpectedly Gabrielle did intensify all the way to major (cat 4) so I have modified the table of storms required.

Will probably be modifying it again soon to get the 8th named storm into the table. 

[Roger Smith]

Humberto brings the count to 8/2/2 and the forecast gives me enough confidence to score from 8/3/2. Apparently there is some potential to go to 8/3/3 eventually and if so the scoring will be adjusted. It will improve all scores except two already at zero error for two majors; those two scores would drop by 1.0. Scores with errors of 1  for major hurricanes will improve by 1; scores with errors of 2 will improve by 2 (from 3 to 1 error deductions); scores with errors of 3 will improve by 3, etc.

 

[Roger Smith]

Once again revised scoring table to account for (a) Humberto now a major hurricane, and (b) Imelda very likely to form and reach at least tropical storm status.

As no forecasters have fewer than 4 hurricanes forecast, for Imelda to reach hurricane status will improve scores by 1 if you predicted 4 hurricanes, by 2 if you predicted five, by 3 if you predicted six, etc. (errors reduced from -1 to 0; -3 to -1; -6 to -3; -10 to -6, etc). 

I have added a potential score for that possible outcome, in brackets, after the indicated score. 

UPDATE edit Sep 30 06z ... Imelda about to become a hurricane apparently so I have edited the scoring table to reflect that likely outcome and to edit the H components of error and score deduction. Onwards and ever upwards. 

[Roger Smith]

Jerry has now arrived, and is predicted to become a hurricane briefly southeast of Bermuda. This causes me to edit the table of scoring above, the potential for 10 5 3 is still in brackets and now 10 4 3 is scored. If we get further action in October I will post an actual scoring table in correct order, this one is basically upside down with a few exceptions.

[Roger Smith]

We have to count Karen the stats padding STS, it probably won't harm most peoples' scoring anyway. I am editing the scoring post. 

[Roger Smith]

The NHC has named Lorenzo in the tropical Atlantic, another likely fish storm but hey we'll take what we can get. Scoring tables will be adjusted yet again. Jerry disappeared so no chance of becoming a hurricane. They say Lorenzo has an outside chance. 

I am guessing the coastal low will get a name a few days from now when it's out over warmer waters. That will be Melissa, or Nestor, or ...