bkviking Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 16/9/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Ho Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 17/8/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmearroz Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 17/8/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 18/9/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC US Geological Survice Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 14/10/2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 18/9/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 17/8/4 ACE: 140 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 11 Author Share Posted June 11 _________Table of forecasts______________ FORECASTER (order of entry) ______________ TS _ H _ M matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 22 _ 11 _ 6 Metwatch (NW-1, 13) _______________________ 21 _ 10 _ 4 Roger Smith (27) ___________________________ 20 _ 11 _ 3 CHSVol (13) ________________________________ 20 _ 10 _ 4 The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) ______________ 20 __ 9 _ 5 NeffsvilleWx (10) ____________________________19 __ 8 _ 5 marsman (14) _______________________________19 __ 5 _ 3 ldub23 (5) __________________________________ 18 _ 10 _ 5 Rhino16 (24) ________________________________ 18 _ 10 _ 4 Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) ________________18 _ 10 _ 3 hudsonvalley21 (34) ________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 5 Yanksfan (8) ________________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 4 nvck (32) ___________________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 4 WYorksWeather (NW-4) ____________________ 17 _ 12 _ 6 Tallis Rockwell (18) __________________________ 17 _ 11 _ 5 Torch Tiger (17) _____________________________ 17 __ 9 _ 4 yoda (22) ____________________________________17 __ 9 _ 4 ___ consensus _______________________________ 17 __ 9 _ 4 (median) Normandy Ho (30) __________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 5 BarryStantonGBP (1) ________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 wxallannj (21) ________________________________17 __ 8 _ 4 jmearroz (31) ________________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 George BM (35) _____________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 Kaari (NW-7) ________________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 cnimbus (6) _________________________________ 17 __ 7 _ 4 FPizz (9) ____________________________________ 17 __ 7 _ 4 wxdude64 (28) ______________________________17 __ 7 _ 3 jconsor (3) __________________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 5 BKViking (29) _______________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 4 ___ UKMO ___________________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 4 LakeNormanStormin (7) _____________________16 __ 8 _ 4 Floydbster (12) ______________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4 WxWatcher007 (25) ________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4 ___ NOAA ___________________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4 Newman (15) ________________________________ 16 __ 7 _ 3 vpbob21 (19) _________________________________15 __ 7 _ 4 ineedsnow (2) _______________________________15 __ 7 _ 3 cardinalland (14) _____________________________15 __ 6 _ 3 NC USGS^ (33) ______________________________ 14 _ 10 _ 2 Ga Wx (20) __________________________________ 14 __ 9 _ 3 LongBeachSurfFreak (4) ____________________ 14 __ 8 _ 4 Retrobuc (11) ________________________________ 14 __ 6 _ 3 StormchaserChuck (23) _____________________ 13 __ 7 _ 4 Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) ___________________ 12 __ 9 _ 4 Hotair (26) ___________________________________ 11 __ 4 _ 2 ================= mean (excl expert fcsts) is 16.8 __ 8.3 _ 4.0 ^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d. For NW entries, an equivalent order of entry to Am-Wx entries is provided for first and second entries 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 11 Author Share Posted June 11 Anyone who missed the contest notice and wants in, or who wishes to amend a forecast as given above, can do so today ... after that the contest is closed to further entries for scoring purposes. As of present moment, I had received six entries on Net-weather and none on the Irish site which provided four or five in past years. I am a member there so I guess I will be their sole representative unless somebody shows an interest today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 22 Author Share Posted August 22 _________Table of forecasts (over and above projected 9 3 3) ____________ ... ... ... edited for Gabrielle and Humberto both becoming major hurricanes and anticipating TS Imelda will exist soon, holding off on Imelda reaching hurricane intensity for now ... ... ... FORECASTER (order of entry) _____________TS _ H _ M _ errors (scoring) _TOTAL SCORE (9 4 3 in brackets) matty40s (NW-3) __________________________13 __ 8 _ 3__-45.5_-36_-6 _ 12.5 (20.5) Metwatch (NW-1, 13) ______________________ 12 __ 7 _ 1__-39 _-28_-1 __ 32 (39) Roger Smith (27) ___________________________11 __ 8 _ 0___-33_-36_ 0 __ 31 (39) CHSVol (13) ________________________________11 __ 7 _ 1___-33_-28_-1 __ 38 (45) The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) ______________ 11 __ 6 _ 2___-33_-21_-3__ 43 (49) NeffsvilleWx (10) ___________________________ 10 __ 5 _ 2___-27.5_-15_-3__ 54.5 (59.5) marsman (14) _______________________________10 __ 2 _ 0___-27.5 _-3 _ 0 __ 69.5 (71.5) ldub23 (5) __________________________________ 9 __ 7 _ 2___-22.5_-28_-3__46.5 (53.5) Rhino16 (24) ________________________________ 9 __ 7 _ 1___-22.5_-28_-1__48.5 (55.5) Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) _______________ 9 __ 7 _ 0___-22.5_-28_ 0__49.5 (56.5) hudsonvalley21 (34) ________________________ 9 __ 6 _ 2___-22.5_-21_-3__53.5 (59.5) Yanksfan (8) ________________________________ 9 __ 6 _ 1___-22.5_-21_-1__55.5 (61.5) nvck (32) ___________________________________ 9 __ 6 _ 1___ -22.5_-21_-1__55.5 (61.5) WYorksWeather (NW-4) _____________________8 __ 9 _ 3___ -18_-45_-6_ 31 (40) Tallis Rockwell (18) __________________________ 8 __ 8 _ 2___ -18_-36_-3__43 (51) Torch Tiger (17) ______________________________8 __ 6 _ 1___ -18_-21_-1__60 (66) yoda (22) ____________________________________ 8 __ 6 _ 1___ -18_-21_-1__60 (66) ___ consensus __ (median) ___________________ 8 __ 6 _ 1___ -18_-21_-1__60 (66) Normandy Ho (30) ___________________________ 8 __ 5 _ 2___ -18_-15_-3__64 (69) BarryStantonGBP (1) _________________________ 8 __ 5 _ 1___ -18_-15_-1__ 66 (71) wxallannj (21) ________________________________ 8 __ 5 _ 1___ -18_-15_-1__ 66 (71) jmearroz (31) _________________________________8 __ 5 _ 1___ -18_-15_-1__ 66 (71) George BM (35) ______________________________8 __ 5 _ 1___ -18_-15_-1__ 66 (71) Kaari (NW-7) _________________________________8 __ 5 _ 1___ -18_-15_-1__ 66 (71) cnimbus (6) __________________________________8 __ 4 _ 1___ -18_-10_-1__ 71 (75) FPizz (9) _____________________________________8 __ 4 _ 1___ -18_-10_-1__ 71 (75) wxdude64 (28) ______________________________ 8 __ 4 _ 0___ -14_-10_ 0__72 (76) jconsor (3) ___________________________________ 7 __ 6 _ 2___ -14_-21_-3 __62 (68) BKViking (29) ________________________________ 7 __ 6 _ 1___ -14_-21_-1 __ 64 (70) ___ UKMO ____________________________________ 7 __ 6 _ 1___ -14_-21_-1 __ 64 (70) LakeNormanStormin (7) ______________________ 7 __ 5 _ 1___ -14_-15_-1 __ 70 (75) Floydbster (12) _______________________________ 7 __ 5 _ 1___ -14_-15_-1 __ 70 (75) WxWatcher007 (25) __________________________ 7 __ 5 _ 1___ -14_-15_-1 __ 70 (75) ___ NOAA _____________________________________ 7 __ 5 _ 1___ -14_-15_-1 __ 70 (75) Newman (15) __________________________________7 __ 4 _ 0___ -14 _-10 _0 __ 76 (80) vpbob21 (19) __________________________________ 6 __ 4 _ 1___ -10.5 _-10 _-1__ 78.5 (82.5) ineedsnow (2) _________________________________6 __ 4 _ 0 ___-10.5 _-10 _ 0__ 79.5 (83.5) cardinalland (14) _______________________________6 __ 3 _ 0 ___-10.5_ -6 _ 0 __ 83.5 (86.5) NC USGS^ (33) ________________________________ 5 __ 7 _ 1 ___-7.5_-28_ 1__ 63.5 (70.5) Ga Wx (20) ____________________________________ 5 __ 6 _ 0___-7.5_-21_ 0 __ 71.5 (77.5) LongBeachSurfFreak (4) _______________________5 __ 5 _ 1___-7.5_-15_-1_ 76.5 (81.5) Retrobuc (11) ___________________________________5 __ 3 _ 0___-7.5_-6_ 0 __86.5 (89.5) StormchaserChuck (23) _______________________ 4 __ 4 _ 1___-5 _-10_-1__ 84 (88) Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) _____________________ 3 __ 6 _ 1___-3 _-21_ -1__ 75 (81) Hotair (26) _____________________________________ 2 __ 1 _ 1 __-1.5 _-1 _-1___ 96.5 (97.5) ================= mean now required (excl expert fcsts) is 7.8 _ 5.3 _ 1.0 = 100 -17 -17 -1 = 65.0 (71) ^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d. For NW entries, an equivalent order of entry to Am-Wx entries is provided for first and second entries ________________________________ Above represents storms still required assuming Imelda achieves tropical storm status; not factoring in hurricane status for Imelda yet. Because these are residues of initial forecasts, some are now inconsistent with possible reality, meaning more hurricanes than storms (nobody is yet stuck with more majors than hurricanes required). The scores based on this being end of season are shown. These scores can still improve going forward (except where errors are now zero or +1 shown in red type for two forecasts of 2 majors -- these are the first forecasts to fall below the current count). Scores will be shown in rank order as we get closer to end of contest season. (Scoring is based on a formula where errors (E) are scored by (E+E^2)/2 in each category, with storms then divided again by 2. An error of 3 _ 2 _ 1 is scored 100 - (0.5) * ((3+9)/2) - ((2+4)/2) - ((1+1)/2) 100 - (0.5) * 6 - 3.0 - 1.0 100 - 3.0 - 3.0 - 1.0 = 93.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 19 Author Share Posted September 19 Your current implied forecasts for rest of season are shown in previous post -- where it is assumed Gabrielle will become a non-major hurricane at some future point. We are past the halfway point of climatology for seasonal totals, although a few seasons can be found where this was before the halfway point (not many). Some of us are going to need a finish like 1887 to get anywhere near our forecasts. I would have to say the two forecasts scored in the table (Hotair, retrobuc) are looking like the favorites at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted Tuesday at 01:01 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 01:01 AM Well unexpectedly Gabrielle did intensify all the way to major (cat 4) so I have modified the table of storms required. Will probably be modifying it again soon to get the 8th named storm into the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted Thursday at 12:33 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 12:33 AM Humberto brings the count to 8/2/2 and the forecast gives me enough confidence to score from 8/3/2. Apparently there is some potential to go to 8/3/3 eventually and if so the scoring will be adjusted. It will improve all scores except two already at zero error for two majors; those two scores would drop by 1.0. Scores with errors of 1 for major hurricanes will improve by 1; scores with errors of 2 will improve by 2 (from 3 to 1 error deductions); scores with errors of 3 will improve by 3, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Once again revised scoring table to account for (a) Humberto now a major hurricane, and (b) Imelda very likely to form and reach at least tropical storm status. As no forecasters have fewer than 4 hurricanes forecast, for Imelda to reach hurricane status will improve scores by 1 if you predicted 4 hurricanes, by 2 if you predicted five, by 3 if you predicted six, etc. (errors reduced from -1 to 0; -3 to -1; -6 to -3; -10 to -6, etc). I have added a potential score for that possible outcome, in brackets, after the indicated score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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