2025 hurricane season forecast contest -- entries will be accepted to Tuesday June 10, 06z 11th

[bkviking]

16/9/4

[Normandy Ho]

17/8/5

[jmearroz]

17/8/4

[nvck]

18/9/4

[NC US Geological Survice]

14/10/2

[hudsonvalley21]

18/9/5

 

[George BM]

17/8/4

ACE: 140

[Roger Smith]

_________Table of forecasts______________

 

FORECASTER (order of entry) ______________ TS _ H _ M

matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 22 _ 11 _ 6 

Metwatch (NW-1, 13) _______________________ 21 _ 10 _ 4 

Roger Smith (27) ___________________________ 20 _ 11 _ 3

CHSVol (13) ________________________________ 20 _ 10 _ 4

The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) ______________ 20 __ 9 _ 5 

NeffsvilleWx (10) ____________________________19 __ 8 _ 5

marsman (14) _______________________________19 __ 5 _ 3 

ldub23 (5) __________________________________ 18 _ 10 _ 5 

Rhino16 (24) ________________________________ 18 _ 10 _ 4

Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) ________________18 _ 10 _ 3

hudsonvalley21 (34) ________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 5

Yanksfan (8) ________________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 4 

nvck (32) ___________________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 4

WYorksWeather (NW-4) ____________________ 17 _ 12 _ 6

Tallis Rockwell (18) __________________________ 17 _ 11 _ 5 

Torch Tiger (17) _____________________________ 17 __ 9 _ 4

yoda (22) ____________________________________17 __ 9 _ 4

___ consensus _______________________________ 17 __ 9 _ 4 (median)

Normandy Ho (30) __________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 5

BarryStantonGBP (1) ________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4

wxallannj (21) ________________________________17 __ 8 _ 4

jmearroz (31) ________________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4

George BM (35) _____________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4

Kaari (NW-7) ________________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4

cnimbus (6) _________________________________ 17 __ 7 _ 4

FPizz (9) ____________________________________ 17 __ 7 _ 4

wxdude64 (28) ______________________________17 __ 7 _ 3

jconsor (3) __________________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 5 

BKViking (29) _______________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 4

___ UKMO ___________________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 4

LakeNormanStormin (7) _____________________16 __ 8 _ 4

Floydbster (12) ______________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4

WxWatcher007 (25) ________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4

___ NOAA ___________________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4 

Newman (15) ________________________________ 16 __ 7 _ 3

vpbob21 (19) _________________________________15 __ 7 _ 4

ineedsnow (2) _______________________________15 __ 7 _ 3

cardinalland (14) _____________________________15 __ 6 _ 3 

NC USGS^ (33) ______________________________ 14 _ 10 _ 2

Ga Wx (20) __________________________________ 14 __ 9 _ 3

LongBeachSurfFreak (4) ____________________ 14 __ 8 _ 4

Retrobuc (11) ________________________________ 14 __ 6 _ 3

StormchaserChuck (23) _____________________ 13 __ 7 _ 4

Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) ___________________ 12 __ 9 _ 4

Hotair (26) ___________________________________ 11 __ 4 _ 2 

=================

mean (excl expert fcsts) is 16.8 __ 8.3 _ 4.0

^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d.

For NW entries, an equivalent order of entry to Am-Wx entries is provided for first and second entries 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Anyone who missed the contest notice and wants in, or who wishes to amend a forecast as given above, can do so today ... after that the contest is closed to further entries for scoring purposes. As of present moment, I had received six entries on Net-weather and none on the Irish site which provided four or five in past years. I am a member there so I guess I will be their sole representative unless somebody shows an interest today. 

[Roger Smith]

• _________Table of forecasts (over and above projected 8 3 2) ____________

... ... ... edited for Gabrielle becoming a major hurricane and anticipating TS Humberto will also become a hurricane (leaving out major for Humberto at present) ... ... ...

 

FORECASTER (order of entry) _____________TS _ H _ M

matty40s (NW-3) __________________________14 __ 8 _ 4__-52.5_-36_-10_ 1.5 

Metwatch (NW-1, 13) _______________________13 __ 7 _ 2__-45.5_-28_-3__23.5 

Roger Smith (27) ___________________________12 __ 8 _ 1___-39_-36_-1__ 24

CHSVol (13) ________________________________12 __ 7 _ 2___-39_-28_-3__ 30

The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) ______________ 12 __ 6 _ 3___-39_-21_-6__ 34 

NeffsvilleWx (10) ___________________________ 11 __ 5 _ 3___-33_-15_-6__ 46

marsman (14) _______________________________11 __ 2 _ 1___-33 _-3 _-1 __ 63 

ldub23 (5) __________________________________10 __ 7 _ 3___-27.5_-21_-6__45.5 

Rhino16 (24) ________________________________10 __ 7 _ 2___-27.5_-21_-3__48.5

Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) _______________ 10 __ 7 _ 1___-27.5_-28_-1__43.5

hudsonvalley21 (34) ________________________ 10 __ 6 _ 3___-27.5_-21_-6__45.5 

Yanksfan (8) ________________________________ 10 __ 6 _ 2___-27.5_-21_-3__48.5 

nvck (32) ___________________________________ 10 __ 6 _ 2___ -27.5_-21_-3__48.5

WYorksWeather (NW-4) _____________________9 __ 9 _ 4___ -22.5_-45_-10_22.5

Tallis Rockwell (18) __________________________ 9 __ 8 _ 3___ -22.5_-36_-6__35.5

Torch Tiger (17) ______________________________9 __ 6 _ 2___ -22.5_-21_-3__53.5

yoda (22) ____________________________________ 9 __ 6 _ 2___ -22.5_-21_-3__53.5

___ consensus __ (median) ___________________9 __ 6 _ 2___ -22.5_-21_-3__53.5  

Normandy Ho (30) ___________________________9 __ 5 _ 3___ -22.5_-15_-6__56.5

BarryStantonGBP (1) _________________________9 __ 5 _ 2___ -22.5_-15_-3__59.5

wxallannj (21) ________________________________ 9 __ 5 _ 2___ -22.5_-15_-3__59.5

jmearroz (31) _________________________________9 __ 5 _ 2___ -22.5_-15_-3__59.5

George BM (35) ______________________________9 __ 5 _ 2___ -22.5_-15_-3__59.5

Kaari (NW-7) _________________________________9 __ 5 _ 2___ -22.5_-15_-3__59.5

cnimbus (6) __________________________________9 __ 4 _ 2___ -22.5_-10_-3__64.5

FPizz (9) _____________________________________9 __ 4 _ 2___ -22.5_-10_-3__64.5

wxdude64 (28) ______________________________ 9 __ 4 _ 1___ -22.5_-10_-1 __66.5

jconsor (3) ___________________________________ 8 __ 6 _ 3___ -18_-21_-6 __ 55

BKViking (29) ________________________________ 8 __ 6 _ 2___ -18_-21_-3 __ 58

___ UKMO ____________________________________ 8 __ 6 _ 2___ -18_-21_-3 __ 58

LakeNormanStormin (7) ______________________ 8 __ 5 _ 2___ -18_-15_-3 __ 64

Floydbster (12) _______________________________ 8 __ 5 _ 2___ -18_-15_-3 __ 64

WxWatcher007 (25) __________________________ 8 __ 5 _ 2___ -18_-15_-3 __ 64

___ NOAA _____________________________________ 8 __ 5 _ 2___ -18_-15_-3 __ 64 

Newman (15) __________________________________8 __ 4 _ 1___ -18 _-10 _-1 __ 71

vpbob21 (19) __________________________________ 7 __ 4 _ 2___ -14 _-10 _-3__ 73

ineedsnow (2) _________________________________7 __ 4 _ 1 ___-14 _-10 _-1___ 75

cardinalland (14) _______________________________7 __ 3 _ 1 ___-14_ -6 _-1 ___ 79

NC USGS^ (33) ________________________________ 6 __ 7 _ 0___-10.5_-28_ 0__ 61.5

Ga Wx (20) ____________________________________ 6 __ 6 _ 1___-10.5_-21_-1 __ 67.5

LongBeachSurfFreak (4) _______________________6 __ 5 _ 2___-10.5_-15_-3_ 71.5 pts

Retrobuc (11) __________________________________ 6 __ 3 _ 1 ___-10.5_-6_-1 __82.5 pts

StormchaserChuck (23) _______________________ 5 __ 4 _ 2 ___-7.5_-10_-3__79.5 pts

Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) _____________________4 __ 6 _ 2 ___ -5 _-21_ -3__ 71 pts

Hotair (26) _____________________________________ 3 __ 1 _ 0 ___ -3 _ -1 _ 0 ___ 96 pts 

=================

mean now required (excl expert fcsts) is 8.8 _ 5.3 _ 2.0 

^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d.

For NW entries, an equivalent order of entry to Am-Wx entries is provided for first and second entries 

________________________________

Above represents storms still required assuming Humberto achieves hurricane status; not factoring in major hurricane status for Humberto yet. 

Because these are residues of initial forecasts, some are now inconsistent with possible reality, meaning more hurricanes than storms (nobody is yet stuck with more majors than hurricanes required). 

The scores based on this being end of season are shown. These scores can still improve going forward (except where errors are now zero). Scores will be shown in rank order as we get closer to end of contest season. 

(Scoring is based on a formula where errors (E) are scored by (E+E^2)/2 in each category, with storms then divided again by 2. An error of 3 _ 2 _ 1 is scored 

100 - (0.5) * ((3+9)/2) - ((2+4)/2) - ((1+1)/2)

100 - (0.5) * 6 - 3.0 - 1.0

100 - 3.0 - 3.0 - 1.0 = 93.0 

 

[Roger Smith]

Your current implied forecasts for rest of season are shown in previous post -- where it is assumed Gabrielle will become a non-major hurricane at some future point. 

We are past the halfway point of climatology for seasonal totals, although a few seasons can be found where this was before the halfway point (not many). Some of us are going to need a finish like 1887 to get anywhere near our forecasts. I would have to say the two forecasts scored in the table (Hotair, retrobuc) are looking like the favorites at this point. 

[Roger Smith]

Well unexpectedly Gabrielle did intensify all the way to major (cat 4) so I have modified the table of storms required.

Will probably be modifying it again soon to get the 8th named storm into the table. 

[Roger Smith]

Humberto brings the count to 8/2/2 and the forecast gives me enough confidence to score from 8/3/2. Apparently there is some potential to go to 8/3/3 eventually and if so the scoring will be adjusted. It will improve all scores except two already at zero error for two majors; those two scores would drop by 1.0. Scores with errors of 1  for major hurricanes will improve by 1; scores with errors of 2 will improve by 2 (from 3 to 1 error deductions); scores with errors of 3 will improve by 3, etc.