bkviking Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 16/9/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Ho Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 17/8/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmearroz Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 17/8/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 18/9/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC US Geological Survice Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 14/10/2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 18/9/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 17/8/4 ACE: 140 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 11 Author Share Posted June 11 _________Table of forecasts______________ FORECASTER (order of entry) ______________ TS _ H _ M matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 22 _ 11 _ 6 Metwatch (NW-1, 13) _______________________ 21 _ 10 _ 4 Roger Smith (27) ___________________________ 20 _ 11 _ 3 CHSVol (13) ________________________________ 20 _ 10 _ 4 The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) ______________ 20 __ 9 _ 5 NeffsvilleWx (10) ____________________________19 __ 8 _ 5 marsman (14) _______________________________19 __ 5 _ 3 ldub23 (5) __________________________________ 18 _ 10 _ 5 Rhino16 (24) ________________________________ 18 _ 10 _ 4 Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) ________________18 _ 10 _ 3 hudsonvalley21 (34) ________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 5 Yanksfan (8) ________________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 4 nvck (32) ___________________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 4 WYorksWeather (NW-4) ____________________ 17 _ 12 _ 6 Tallis Rockwell (18) __________________________ 17 _ 11 _ 5 Torch Tiger (17) _____________________________ 17 __ 9 _ 4 yoda (22) ____________________________________17 __ 9 _ 4 ___ consensus _______________________________ 17 __ 9 _ 4 (median) Normandy Ho (30) __________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 5 BarryStantonGBP (1) ________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 wxallannj (21) ________________________________17 __ 8 _ 4 jmearroz (31) ________________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 George BM (35) _____________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 Kaari (NW-7) ________________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 cnimbus (6) _________________________________ 17 __ 7 _ 4 FPizz (9) ____________________________________ 17 __ 7 _ 4 wxdude64 (28) ______________________________17 __ 7 _ 3 jconsor (3) __________________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 5 BKViking (29) _______________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 4 ___ UKMO ___________________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 4 LakeNormanStormin (7) _____________________16 __ 8 _ 4 Floydbster (12) ______________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4 WxWatcher007 (25) ________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4 ___ NOAA ___________________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4 Newman (15) ________________________________ 16 __ 7 _ 3 vpbob21 (19) _________________________________15 __ 7 _ 4 ineedsnow (2) _______________________________15 __ 7 _ 3 cardinalland (14) _____________________________15 __ 6 _ 3 NC USGS^ (33) ______________________________ 14 _ 10 _ 2 Ga Wx (20) __________________________________ 14 __ 9 _ 3 LongBeachSurfFreak (4) ____________________ 14 __ 8 _ 4 Retrobuc (11) ________________________________ 14 __ 6 _ 3 StormchaserChuck (23) _____________________ 13 __ 7 _ 4 Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) ___________________ 12 __ 9 _ 4 Hotair (26) ___________________________________ 11 __ 4 _ 2 ================= mean (excl expert fcsts) is 16.8 __ 8.3 _ 4.0 ^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d. For NW entries, an equivalent order of entry to Am-Wx entries is provided for first and second entries 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 11 Author Share Posted June 11 Anyone who missed the contest notice and wants in, or who wishes to amend a forecast as given above, can do so today ... after that the contest is closed to further entries for scoring purposes. As of present moment, I had received six entries on Net-weather and none on the Irish site which provided four or five in past years. I am a member there so I guess I will be their sole representative unless somebody shows an interest today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 22 Author Share Posted August 22 _________Table of forecasts (over and above projected 7 2 1) ______________ ... edited for Gabrielle becoming a hurricane (major is not yet predicted) ... FORECASTER (order of entry) _____________ TS _ H _ M matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________15 __ 9 _ 5 Metwatch (NW-1, 13) _______________________ 14 __ 8 _ 3 Roger Smith (27) ___________________________ 13 __ 9 _ 2 CHSVol (13) ________________________________ 13 __ 8 _ 3 The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) ______________ 13 __ 7 _ 4 NeffsvilleWx (10) ____________________________12 __ 6 _ 4 marsman (14) _______________________________12 __ 3 _ 2 ldub23 (5) __________________________________ 11 __ 8 _ 4 Rhino16 (24) ________________________________ 11 __ 8 _ 3 Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) ________________11 __ 8 _ 2 hudsonvalley21 (34) ________________________ 11 __ 7 _ 4 Yanksfan (8) ________________________________ 11 __ 7 _ 3 nvck (32) ___________________________________ 11 __ 7 _ 3 WYorksWeather (NW-4) ____________________ 10 __10 _ 5 Tallis Rockwell (18) __________________________ 10 __ 9 _ 4 Torch Tiger (17) _____________________________ 10 __ 7 _ 3 yoda (22) ____________________________________10 __ 7 _ 3 ___ consensus _______________________________10 __ 7 _ 3 (median) Normandy Ho (30) __________________________ 10 __ 6 _ 4 BarryStantonGBP (1) ________________________ 10 __ 6 _ 3 wxallannj (21) ________________________________10 __ 6 _ 3 jmearroz (31) ________________________________ 10 __ 6 _ 3 George BM (35) _____________________________ 10 __ 6 _ 3 Kaari (NW-7) ________________________________ 10 __ 6 _ 3 cnimbus (6) _________________________________ 10 __ 5 _ 3 FPizz (9) ____________________________________ 10 __ 5 _ 3 wxdude64 (28) ______________________________10 __ 5 _ 2 jconsor (3) ___________________________________ 9 __ 7 _ 4 BKViking (29) ________________________________ 9 __ 7 _ 3 ___ UKMO ____________________________________ 9 __ 7 _ 3 LakeNormanStormin (7) ______________________ 9 __ 6 _ 3 Floydbster (12) _______________________________ 9 __ 6 _ 3 WxWatcher007 (25) __________________________ 9 __ 6 _ 3 ___ NOAA _____________________________________ 9 __ 6 _ 3 Newman (15) __________________________________9 __ 5 _ 2 vpbob21 (19) __________________________________ 8 __ 5 _ 3 ineedsnow (2) _________________________________8 __ 5 _ 2 cardinalland (14) _______________________________8 __ 4 _ 2 NC USGS^ (33) ________________________________ 7 __ 8 _ 1 Ga Wx (20) ____________________________________ 7 __ 7 _ 2 LongBeachSurfFreak (4) ______________________ 7 __ 6 _ 3 Retrobuc (11) __________________________________ 7 __ 4 _ 2 ___ -14_-10_-3 __ 73 pts StormchaserChuck (23) _______________________ 6 __ 5 _ 3 Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) _____________________ 5 __ 7 _ 3 Hotair (26) _____________________________________ 4 __ 2 _ 1 ___ -5 _ -3 _ -1 ___ 91 pts ================= mean now required (excl expert fcsts) is 9.8 _ 6.3 _ 3.0 ^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d. For NW entries, an equivalent order of entry to Am-Wx entries is provided for first and second entries ________________________________ Above represents storms still required assuming Gabrielle achieves hurricane status; not factoring in major hurricane status for Gabrielle yet. Because these are residues of initial forecasts, some are now inconsistent with possible reality, meaning more hurricanes than storms (nobody is yet stuck with more majors than hurricanes required). The two highest scores based on this being end of season are shown. These scores can still improve going forward. More scores will be shown as we get closer to end of contest season. (Scoring is based on a formula where errors (E) are scored by (E+E^2)/2 in each category, with storms then divided again by 2. An error of 3 _ 2 _ 1 is scored 100 - (0.5) * ((3+9)/2) - ((2+4)/2) - ((1+1)/2) 100 - (0.5) * 6 - 3.0 - 1.0 100 - 3.0 - 3.0 - 1.0 = 93.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Your current implied forecasts for rest of season are shown in previous post -- where it is assumed Gabrielle will become a non-major hurricane at some future point. We are past the halfway point of climatology for seasonal totals, although a few seasons can be found where this was before the halfway point (not many). Some of us are going to need a finish like 1887 to get anywhere near our forecasts. I would have to say the two forecasts scored in the table (Hotair, retrobuc) are looking like the favorites at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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