2025 hurricane season forecast contest -- entries will be accepted to Tuesday June 10, 06z 11th

[bkviking]

16/9/4

[Normandy Ho]

17/8/5

[jmearroz]

17/8/4

[nvck]

18/9/4

[NC US Geological Survice]

14/10/2

[hudsonvalley21]

18/9/5

 

[George BM]

17/8/4

ACE: 140

[Roger Smith]

_________Table of forecasts______________

 

FORECASTER (order of entry) ______________ TS _ H _ M

matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 22 _ 11 _ 6 

Metwatch (NW-1, 13) _______________________ 21 _ 10 _ 4 

Roger Smith (27) ___________________________ 20 _ 11 _ 3

CHSVol (13) ________________________________ 20 _ 10 _ 4

The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) ______________ 20 __ 9 _ 5 

NeffsvilleWx (10) ____________________________19 __ 8 _ 5

marsman (14) _______________________________19 __ 5 _ 3 

ldub23 (5) __________________________________ 18 _ 10 _ 5 

Rhino16 (24) ________________________________ 18 _ 10 _ 4

Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) ________________18 _ 10 _ 3

hudsonvalley21 (34) ________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 5

Yanksfan (8) ________________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 4 

nvck (32) ___________________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 4

WYorksWeather (NW-4) ____________________ 17 _ 12 _ 6

Tallis Rockwell (18) __________________________ 17 _ 11 _ 5 

Torch Tiger (17) _____________________________ 17 __ 9 _ 4

yoda (22) ____________________________________17 __ 9 _ 4

___ consensus _______________________________ 17 __ 9 _ 4 (median)

Normandy Ho (30) __________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 5

BarryStantonGBP (1) ________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4

wxallannj (21) ________________________________17 __ 8 _ 4

jmearroz (31) ________________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4

George BM (35) _____________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4

Kaari (NW-7) ________________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4

cnimbus (6) _________________________________ 17 __ 7 _ 4

FPizz (9) ____________________________________ 17 __ 7 _ 4

wxdude64 (28) ______________________________17 __ 7 _ 3

jconsor (3) __________________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 5 

BKViking (29) _______________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 4

___ UKMO ___________________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 4

LakeNormanStormin (7) _____________________16 __ 8 _ 4

Floydbuster (12) ____________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4

WxWatcher007 (25) ________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4

___ NOAA ___________________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4 

Newman (15) ________________________________ 16 __ 7 _ 3

vpbob21 (19) _________________________________15 __ 7 _ 4

ineedsnow (2) _______________________________15 __ 7 _ 3

cardinalland (14) _____________________________15 __ 6 _ 3 

NC USGS^ (33) ______________________________ 14 _ 10 _ 2

Ga Wx (20) __________________________________ 14 __ 9 _ 3

LongBeachSurfFreak (4) ____________________ 14 __ 8 _ 4

Retrobuc (11) ________________________________ 14 __ 6 _ 3

StormchaserChuck (23) _____________________ 13 __ 7 _ 4

Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) ___________________ 12 __ 9 _ 4

Hotair (26) ___________________________________ 11 __ 4 _ 2 

=================

mean (excl expert fcsts) is 16.8 __ 8.3 _ 4.0

^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d.

For NW entries, an equivalent order of entry to Am-Wx entries is provided for first and second entries 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Anyone who missed the contest notice and wants in, or who wishes to amend a forecast as given above, can do so today ... after that the contest is closed to further entries for scoring purposes. As of present moment, I had received six entries on Net-weather and none on the Irish site which provided four or five in past years. I am a member there so I guess I will be their sole representative unless somebody shows an interest today. 

[Roger Smith]

• _________Table of current forecast errors (over and above current count 10 4 3) ____________

 

... ... ... alternate scoring in brackets is for 10 5 3 which would occur if Jerry becomes a hurricane.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ errors to date __ points deducted _ TOTAL SCORE

FORECASTER (order of entry) _____________TS _ H _ M _ errors (scoring) _ 10 4 3 (alt 10 5 3)

matty40s (NW-3) __________________________12 __ 7 _ 3 __-39 _-28_-6 ___ 27 (34)

Metwatch (NW-1, 13) ______________________ 11 __ 6 _ 1 __ -33 _-21_-1 ____ 45 (51)

Roger Smith (27) ___________________________10 __ 7 _ 0___-27.5_-28_0 ___ 44.5 (51.5)

CHSVol (13) ________________________________10 __ 6 _ 1___-27.5_-21_-1 ___ 50.5 (56.5)

The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) ______________10 __ 5 _ 2___-27.5_-15_-3___ 54.5 (59.5)

NeffsvilleWx (10) ____________________________9 __4 _ 2___-22.5_-10_-3__ 64.5 (68.5)

marsman (14) _______________________________9 __ 1 _ 0___-22.5 _-1 _ 0 __ 76.5 (77.5)

ldub23 (5) __________________________________ 8 __ 6 _ 2___-18_-21_-3 __ 58 (64)

Rhino16 (24) ________________________________ 8 __ 6 _ 1___-18_-21_-1 __  60 (66)

Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) _______________ 8 __ 6 _ 0___-18_-21_ 0 __ 61 (67)

hudsonvalley21 (34) ________________________ 8 __ 5 _ 2___-18_-15_-3 __ 64 (69)

Yanksfan (8) ________________________________ 8 __ 5 _ 1___-18_-15_-1 __ 66 (71)

nvck (32) ___________________________________ 8 __ 5 _ 1___ -18_-15_-1 __ 66 (71)

WYorksWeather (NW-4) ____________________7 __ 8 _ 3___ -14_-36_-6___ 44 (52)

Tallis Rockwell (18) _________________________ 7 __ 7 _ 2___ -14_-28_-3___ 55 (62)

Torch Tiger (17) _____________________________7 __ 5 _ 1___ -14_-15_-1____ 70 (75)

yoda (22) ____________________________________7 __ 5 _ 1___ -14_-15_-1____ 70 (75)

___ consensus __ (median) ___________________ 7 __ 5 _ 1___ -14_-15_-1 ____ 70 (75)

Normandy Ho (30) ___________________________7 __ 4 _ 2___ -14_-10_-3____ 73 (77)

BarryStantonGBP (1) _________________________ 7 __ 4 _ 1___ -14_-10_-1____ 75 (79)

wxallannj (21) ________________________________ 7 __ 4 _ 1___ -14_-10_-1____ 75 (79)

jmearroz (31) _________________________________7 __ 4 _ 1___ -14_-10_-1____ 75 (79)

George BM (35) ______________________________7 __ 4 _ 1___ -14_-10_-1____ 75 (79)

Kaari (NW-7) _________________________________7 __ 4 _ 1___ -14_-10_-1____ 75 (79)

cnimbus (6) __________________________________7 __ 3 _ 1___ -14_-6_-1____ 79 (82)

FPizz (9) _____________________________________7 __ 3 _ 1___ -14_-6_-1____ 79 (82)

wxdude64 (28) ______________________________ 7 __ 3 _ 0___ -14_-6_ 0____ 80 (83)

jconsor (3) ___________________________________ 6 __ 5 _ 2___ -10.5_-15_-3 __71.5 (76.5)

BKViking (29) ________________________________ 6 __ 5 _ 1___ -10.5_-15_-1 __ 73.5 (78.5)

___ UKMO ____________________________________ 6 __ 5 _ 1___ -10.5_-15_-1 __ 73.5 (78.5)

LakeNormanStormin (7) ______________________ 6 __ 4 _ 1___ -10.5_-10_-1 __ 78.5 (82.5)

Floydbuster (12) ______________________________ 6 __ 4 _ 1___ -10.5_-10_-1 __ 78.5 (82.5)

WxWatcher007 (25) __________________________ 6 __ 4 _ 1___ -10.5_-10_-1 __ 78.5 (82.5)

___ NOAA _____________________________________ 6 __ 4 _ 1___ -10.5_-10_-1 __ 78.5 (82.5)

Newman (15) __________________________________6 __ 3 _ 0___ -10.5 _-6 _0 __ 83.5 (86.5)

vpbob21 (19) __________________________________ 5 __ 3 _ 1___ -7.5 _-6_-1 __ 85.5 (88.5)

ineedsnow (2) _________________________________5 __ 3 _ 0 ___-7.5 _-6 _0 __ 86.5 (89.5)

cardinalland (14) _______________________________5 __ 2 _ 0 ___-7.5_ -3 _0 __89.5 (91.5)

NC USGS^ (33) ________________________________ 4 __ 6 _ 1 ___ -5_-21 _-1 __ 73 (79)

Ga Wx (20) ____________________________________ 4 __ 5 _ 0___ -5_-15_ 0 __ 80 (85)

LongBeachSurfFreak (4) _______________________4 __ 4 _ 1___ -5_-10 _-1 ___84 (88)

Retrobuc (11) ___________________________________4 __ 2 _ 0___ -5 _-3 _ 0 ___ 92 (94)

StormchaserChuck (23) _______________________ 3 __ 3 _ 1___ -3 _-6 _-1 ___ 90 (93)

Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) _____________________ 2 __ 5 _ 1___ -1.5 _-15_-1 ___82.5 (87.5)

Hotair (26) _____________________________________ 1 __ 0 _ 1 __ -1 __-0 __-1 ___ 98 (97)

=================

mean now required (excl expert fcsts) is 6.8 _ 4.3 _ 1.0  = 100 -13 -12 -1 = 74.0 (78.3)

^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d.

For NW entries, an equivalent order of entry to Am-Wx entries is provided for first and second entries 

________________________________

Above represents storms still required. 

Because these are residues of initial forecasts, some are now inconsistent with possible reality, meaning more hurricanes than storms (nobody is yet stuck with more majors than hurricanes required). 

The scores based on this being end of season are shown. These scores can still improve going forward (except where errors are now zero or +1 shown in red type for two forecasts of 2 majors -- these are the first forecasts to fall below the current count). Scores will be shown in rank order as we get closer to end of contest season. 

(Scoring is based on a formula where errors (E) are scored by (E+E^2)/2 in each category, with storms then divided again by 2. An error of 3 _ 2 _ 1 is scored 

100 - (0.5) * ((3+9)/2) - ((2+4)/2) - ((1+1)/2)

100 - (0.5) * 6 - 3.0 - 1.0

100 - 3.0 - 3.0 - 1.0 = 93.0 

 

[Roger Smith]

Your current implied forecasts for rest of season are shown in previous post -- where it is assumed Gabrielle will become a non-major hurricane at some future point. 

We are past the halfway point of climatology for seasonal totals, although a few seasons can be found where this was before the halfway point (not many). Some of us are going to need a finish like 1887 to get anywhere near our forecasts. I would have to say the two forecasts scored in the table (Hotair, retrobuc) are looking like the favorites at this point. 

[Roger Smith]

Well unexpectedly Gabrielle did intensify all the way to major (cat 4) so I have modified the table of storms required.

Will probably be modifying it again soon to get the 8th named storm into the table. 

[Roger Smith]

Humberto brings the count to 8/2/2 and the forecast gives me enough confidence to score from 8/3/2. Apparently there is some potential to go to 8/3/3 eventually and if so the scoring will be adjusted. It will improve all scores except two already at zero error for two majors; those two scores would drop by 1.0. Scores with errors of 1  for major hurricanes will improve by 1; scores with errors of 2 will improve by 2 (from 3 to 1 error deductions); scores with errors of 3 will improve by 3, etc.

 

[Roger Smith]

Once again revised scoring table to account for (a) Humberto now a major hurricane, and (b) Imelda very likely to form and reach at least tropical storm status.

As no forecasters have fewer than 4 hurricanes forecast, for Imelda to reach hurricane status will improve scores by 1 if you predicted 4 hurricanes, by 2 if you predicted five, by 3 if you predicted six, etc. (errors reduced from -1 to 0; -3 to -1; -6 to -3; -10 to -6, etc). 

I have added a potential score for that possible outcome, in brackets, after the indicated score. 

UPDATE edit Sep 30 06z ... Imelda about to become a hurricane apparently so I have edited the scoring table to reflect that likely outcome and to edit the H components of error and score deduction. Onwards and ever upwards. 

[Roger Smith]

Jerry has now arrived, and is predicted to become a hurricane briefly southeast of Bermuda. This causes me to edit the table of scoring above, the potential for 10 5 3 is still in brackets and now 10 4 3 is scored. If we get further action in October I will post an actual scoring table in correct order, this one is basically upside down with a few exceptions.