Global Average Temperature 2025

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Yeah, just saw that on Twitter/X. Professor Jacobson noted it. So much for all that cooling... although, looking at the actual numbers, it does look to be a little low hanging fruit compared to the weeks before and after.

 

Overall, July 1-14, 2025 ranks 4th warmest. I suspect that July 2025 will finish third.

[donsutherland1]

The July 14 reading was revised up to 16.86°C. The preliminary July 15 temperature was 16.86°C (second warmest for the date on the ERA5 dataset).

[bluewave]

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

 

It's interesting for me ...

...just eyeballing the data over at climatereanalyzer.org's interface ... I've noticed this in the past and this above is reminding me. There seems to be a vague, albeit non-zero, positive correlation coefficient among the various years of the aggregate graph.  Namely, a downward trend 'tendency' shared among them, around the last week of Junes through the first week's of Julys.  Then, most years resume an upward result that arcs over an apex during the last week of July and first week ( ~) of August.   

The latter is understandable and intuitive. But why there'd be this subtle tendency to offset seasonal rise around July 1 ... it may be just sample size related, true.  I mean there's only 20 or so years out of the last 2,000,000 presented. Ha.  Perhaps it is about as interesting as it is subtle, then.  It might interesting to see the deeper historical sample size.  

Oh ... just as an after thought - maybe even obvious?  The southern polar contribution in the solar "step latitudes" where the sun briefly dips below the horizon ( not from Earth's rotation, but because of the geometry of it's revolution around the sun), might be related to that.   In that 10 or so day period ... there's say, a 'shock' proficiency of energy loss in that ring latitude. The sun then reappearing during the day, however feeble, is enough to add decimals back, and that no longer offsets the total and the previous dynamic resumes.. 

Heh, as another after-observation ... there's a tendency at the other end, last week of Dec's, to see a trend up. That may be the mirror effect in the other direction. 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

 

I think it's useful to note that higher average temperatures does not necessarily mean more extreme temperatures.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I think it's useful to note that higher average temperatures does not necessarily mean more extreme temperatures.

We have been seeing both an increase in extreme high temperatures and flooding across the Northern Hemisphere this summer. That’s why the global average temperatures and moisture content is so high.

Even our area experienced record moisture content with record dew points and PWATS. Plus we just saw the highest June temperatures ever recorded for the month of June at many spots.

This month has seen the highest July Dew points on record for many spots. Plus record low temperatures. The all-time highs this month for maximum temperatures have been on other continents.

So these daily global temperatures are a great marker for the record local heat and rainfall extremes since a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have been seeing both an increase in extreme high temperatures and flooding across the Northern Hemisphere this summer. That’s why the global average temperatures and moisture content is so high.

Even our area experienced record moisture content with record dew points and PWATS. Plus we just saw the highest June temperatures ever recorded for the month of June at many spots.

This month has seen the highest July Dew points on record for many spots. Plus record low temperatures. The all-time highs this month have been on other continents.

So these daily global temperatures are a great marker for the record heat and rainfall extremes since a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. 

Isn't the moisture content going to put a blanket on the most extreme temperatures though? The wetter the air is the harder it is to heat up.

As an example (besides the usual onshore flow stuff), Death Valley (as an example) has not exceeded its all time record of 134 set in 1913.  Even if that record is eventually proven to be too high, their all time record has *stalled* in the 129-130 degree range.  Same goes for the other global hot spot on the planet, the Middle and Near East (which have all time record highs in the 129-130 region also.)  Do you think that the planet has a cap for how hot it can actually get? And would this be because of the amount of water that we have on the planet that will be a barrier to the highest temperatures on the planet from getting much hotter?  So, for example, if we eventually see 3C of warming, would the hottest temperatures on the planet be limited to a 1C rise on the high end?

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Isn't the moisture content going to put a blanket on the most extreme temperatures though? The wetter the air is the harder it is to heat up.

As an example (besides the usual onshore flow stuff), Death Valley (as an example) has not exceeded its all time record of 134 set in 1913.  Even if that record is eventually proven to be too high, their all time record has *stalled* in the 129-130 degree range.  Same goes for the other global hot spot in the planet, the Middle and Near East (which have all time record highs in the 129-130 region also.)  Do you think that the planet has a cap for how hot it can actually get? And would this be because of the amount of water that we have on the planet that will be a barrier to the highest temperatures on the planet from getting much hotter?  So, for example, if we eventually see 3C of warming, would the hottest temperatures on the planet be limited to a 1C rise on the high end?

Hey Liberty,

 If the average relative humidity were to have risen, then I’d agree. Whereas the avg dewpoint has risen (reflecting increased moisture content), there’s no indication the RH has also risen as the temps have risen along with the dewpoints.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Isn't the moisture content going to put a blanket on the most extreme temperatures though? The wetter the air is the harder it is to heat up.

As an example (besides the usual onshore flow stuff), Death Valley (as an example) has not exceeded its all time record of 134 set in 1913.  Even if that record is eventually proven to be too high, their all time record has *stalled* in the 129-130 degree range.  Same goes for the other global hot spot in the planet, the Middle and Near East (which have all time record highs in the 129-130 region also.)  Do you think that the planet has a cap for how hot it can actually get? And would this be because of the amount of water that we have on the planet that will be a barrier to the highest temperatures on the planet from getting much hotter?  So, for example, if we eventually see 3C of warming, would the hottest temperatures on the planet be limited to a 1C rise on the high end?

What ends up happening at many locations is that they alternate between extreme heat and extreme flooding. We saw a microcosm of this global pattern with the 103° to 105° heat back in June in our area. Then the recent severe flooding centered just inland from the coast around our area. Now multiply this across the entire Northern Hemisphere this summer to see the scope of what is going on. 

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

What ends up happening at many locations is that they alternate between extreme heat and extreme flooding. We saw a microcosm of this global pattern with the 103° to 105° heat back in June in our area. Then the recent severe flooding centered just inland from the coast around our area. Now multiply this across the entire Northern Hemisphere this summer to see the scope of what is going on. 

I wonder if that heat had occurred a month later we would have challenged the records we set in 2011 on this date.  Late July is usually about 5 degrees hotter than late June.

 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Hey Liberty,

 If the average relative humidity were to have risen, then I’d agree. Whereas the avg dewpoint has risen (reflecting increased moisture content), there’s no indication the RH has also risen as the temps have risen along with the dewpoints.

But for example, temperatures rise quicker here during the day and fall quicker here at night with a lower dew point..... doesn't dew point indicate actual moisture content while relative humidity is relative to the saturation point at that temperature?

 

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But for example, temperatures rise quicker here during the day and fall quicker here at night with a lower dew point..... doesn't dew point indicate actual moisture content while relative humidity is relative to the saturation point at that temperature?

 

yes