2025-2026 ENSO

[TheClimateChanger]

10 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

@donsutherland1, what do you think of this projection? When I see a week-long, ensemble average showing an areal anomaly of +3.66F over that big of an area - keep in mind, it's not averaging just the CONUS, but that entire map inset - that looks significant to me. Like possible record-breaking warmth in places.

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

@donsutherland1, what do you think of this projection? When I see a week-long, ensemble average showing an areal anomaly of +3.66F over that big of an area - keep in mind, it's not averaging just the CONUS, but that entire map inset - that looks significant to me. Like possible record-breaking warmth in places.

It's impressive, especially when one considers that the cool anomalies over the Atlantic bring down the areal average. My guess is that near record/record warmth could be possible in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. 

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow! Those were legitimate cold months. Surprised 2015 isn't on that short list as well!

February 2015 had exceptional warmth in the western third of the CONUS.

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm not sure what data was used to for the run-up in the price, much less the plunge. I suspect that the dramatic shift in the CFSv2 started the sell-off. The latest ECWMF weeklies were not yet available.

In the larger scheme of things, this was not looking like a Top 3 coldest February since 2010 nationwide.

Using AmWx's Top 10 forecasters from 2025, here were the expected February numbers:

IMO, that consensus consistently beats most of what is posted on Social Media for long-range ideas, perhaps because there is no incentive to hype for clicks, views, etc.

Here are the Top 5 coldest Februaries since 2010:

#1: 2021

#2: 2010

#3: 2019

 

 

 

Today’s Euro Weeklies are if anything even worse than yesterday’s if you want a cold pattern in the E US. Also, the 10 mb has pulled up somewhat on the mid Feb reversal chance.

 Cue the folks that say the EW shouldn’t run daily lol, which is irrelevant unless you’d prefer to keep your head in the sand:

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies are if anything even worse than yesterday’s if you want a cold pattern in the E US. Also, the 10 mb has pulled up somewhat on the mid Feb reversal chance.

 Cue the folks that say the EW shouldn’t run daily lol, which is irrelevant unless you’d prefer to keep your head in the sand:

Yes, they're definitely a step back (continuing the trend from recent days). I actually prefer the daily data, as one can better evaluate what's happening than if one had to make guesses over 3- and 4-day intervals.

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, they're definitely a step back (continuing the trend from recent days). I actually prefer the daily data, as one can better evaluate what's happening than if one had to make guesses over 3- and 4-day intervals.

Don, Do you mean the WxBell 850 mb maps? What daily data are you referring to? Be careful with their 2m temp maps because I’ve been saying they’re colder than ECMWF’s in house data.

[donsutherland1]

Just now, GaWx said:

Don, Do you mean the WxBell 850 mb maps? What daily data are you referring to? Be careful with their 2m temp maps because I’ve been saying they’re colder than ECMWF’s in house data.

I was referring to the ECMWF weekly maps in general. I prefer the ECMWF chart to vendors.

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

6 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

We had April torches in 2017 and 2019 (those were two of the warmest Aprils ever), as well as the first half of April 2023 (before we turned cold, which lasted until the end of June).

Thing about February is that it's only 28 days. The cold beginning is going to eat a good chunk of the month. For the warmer days to eventually outweigh the colder days, we're going to need to string together some record-breaking, 70+ heat. I just don't see it happening.

Honestly wouldn't rule that out at some point during the month, based on recent trends.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I was referring to the ECMWF weekly maps in general. I prefer the ECMWF chart to vendors.

Obviously very early, but what are your thoughts on March Don? I really hate to disagree with Ray because him and I have basically agreed on almost everything since November, but as of right now, I just don’t see more solidly below normal cold for March, which would make it 5 months in a row. While I’m certainly on board for a colder than normal February, as of today, I just don’t see a persistent cold onslaught into the east for a 5th month in a row (March)….we are extremely lucky to have seen the last 4 months do that during a -ENSO/Nina in this new climate era. The last -ENSO/Nina winter that did it was 30 years ago (1995-96). To be clear, I’m NOT suggesting it isn’t possible. What say you?

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Obviously very early, but what are your thoughts on March Don? I really hate to disagree with Ray because him and I have basically agreed on almost everything since November, but as of right now, I just don’t see more solidly below normal cold for March, which would make it 5 months in a row. While I’m certainly on board for a colder than normal February, as of today, I just don’t see a persistent cold onslaught into the east for a 5th month in a row (March)….we are extremely lucky to have seen the last 4 months do that during a -ENSO in this new climate era. The last -ENSO winter that did it was 30 years ago (1995-96). What say you?

Ray has done an awesome job so far. Statistically, a cold March seems less likely, but it's still in play. I think March's outcome depends on whether the modeled SSWE can occur and, if so, whether it can propagate in a favorable fashion. If not, even if March starts cool, things could quickly break to the warm side. New England would probably hold onto the cold longer than the Mid-Atlantic.

A strong EPO-/AO- pattern would probably be needed to deliver a 2018-style outcome. At this stage, the WPO becomes less important due to the shorter wave lengths.