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TV Severe Weather2025-?


jaxjagman
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Maybe we will see thunderstorms anyways in the upcoming days,seems like we fixing to see a ERW along with maybe a CCKW,in which the Rossby wave will kick off the strong WWB EAST of the IDL, This would kick off a more monsoonal flow and put us in a wet unstable pattern in a few days more or less.Least we should see some much needed rains here 

 

Tropical-Monitoring-North-Carolina-Institute-for-Climate-Studies-05-23-2026_07_21_PM.png

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Oh wow I was mainly kidding about the obligatory Upper Plateau tornado, posts from Thursday and early Friday.

Anybody still have the radar shots from the time?

I doubt they missed an obvious signature. Maybe it was one of those difficult spin-ups.

UPDATE for Sunday: So close yet so blob. No chase attempt is being made. We are safe in East Brainerd, not even in the severe polygon. Looks windy on US-27 where TN-153 comes in. Signal Mtn members check in when you can!

image.png.d1bbb2cdd3936c5c5066d1b9b20d67ea.png

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3 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Oh wow I was mainly kidding about the obligatory Upper Plateau tornado, posts from Thursday and early Friday.

Anybody still have the radar shots from the time?

I doubt they missed an obvious signature. Maybe it was one of those difficult spin-ups.

UPDATE for Sunday: So close yet so blob. No chase attempt is being made. We are safe in East Brainerd, not even in the severe polygon. Looks windy on US-27 where TN-153 comes in. Signal Mtn members check in when you can!

 

It seems like every time you mention the upper Plateau tornado spin ups, one happens close to me. You may have something figured out for this region. 

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yeah wake me up when football starts. 

North America pattern is really going to the dogs. Rex block will be replaces by an Omega block. Anything underneath is trash, no wind shear, plus too much rain. Plains is totally shut down east of the Rockies foothills. 

Should still get thunderstorms around here with systems passing through. Probably not much severe. Breaking the drought takes several rounds, so that's probably the good part of all this mess. 

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A New Hope?

12z EURO
image.png.f2ec2d79e75d29e8a0e4c3226ef347f8.png

While this chase season has not been ideal for myself and probably for others as well, the EURO model does have an interesting feature that could provide myself an opportunity to chase and maybe salvage this year's chase season as well. This feature was also showing up in the 00z model run which suggest that this is not just a one-off model run and something to potentially keep in the back of one's mind for the moment. Will be very interesting to see how the EURO model trends over the next several days before making any real decision. I will say for the time being that location, timing and placement appears to be favorable with the 00z and 12z runs. 

12z GFS
image.png.b6a74a33ecc1d49e581da0a961fe4c7b.png


As for the GFS, the signal is weak and not as apparent. This does cause for some concern as the two models do not agree on the overall solution and appear to have two different setups. The GFS also indicates that the system could be a mid-latitude cyclone coming out of the Great Plains rather than a tropical based system that the EURO is currently showing. In addition, placement of the synoptic forcing appears to be more focus towards the Plains and potentially the rugged terrain of AR and portions of MO which is not ideal for chasing.

In short, will need to watch and monitor model guidance and model trends closely as this could be my new and probably last hope for a potential chase for the 2026 spring season, especially locally. Will need to see how the next few days pan out before making any real plans to chase. This is something I also thought would be worth noting for the time being as the severe weather season is winding down and chances for any chasing looks very dim outside of this for the time being.

 

Date:5/28/26 @ 7:45 PM

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