2025 forecast contests -- enter for November 2025 contest (deadline 06z November 1st)

[wxallannj]

DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

1.0       1.0      1.0       2.8    2.5    2.9      3.1      2.6     1.0

 

November

[Ephesians2]

DCA: -1.5

NYC: -1.0

BOS: -1.5

ORD: -2.5

ATL: 0.5

IAH: 1.5

DEN: 2.0

PHX: 4.0

SEA: 3.0

[Roger Smith]

-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 __ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _ +3.5 _ +0.8

[yoda]

DCA: +1.0

NYC: +0.8

BOS: +0.6

ORD: +0.4

ATL:  +1.3

IAH: +1.9

DEN: +2.2

PHX: +2.4

SEA: +0.7

[bkviking]

DCA: +1.3

NYC: +1.1

BOS: +1.0

ORD: +1.0

ATL: +1.4

IAH: +1.8

DEN: +2.1

PHX: +1.9

SEA: +0.5

[so_whats_happening]

DCA     NYC   BOS    ORD    ATL    IAH    DEN    PHX     SEA   

  1.1        1.4       1.9      1.4       1.1       2.1     2.4      2.4       .8

[wxdude64]

This will be ugly, completely forgot!

DCA: -2.2

NYC: -3.0

BOS: -2.7

ORD: -3.3

ATL: -1.5

IAH: -0.4

DEN: +0.5

PHX: +0.8

SEA: +2.1

[Roger Smith]

On 11/2/2025 at 6:32 PM, wxdude64 said:

This will be ugly, completely forgot!

DCA: -2.2

NYC: -3.0

BOS: -2.7

ORD: -3.3

ATL: -1.5

IAH: -0.4

DEN: +0.5

PHX: +0.8

SEA: +2.1

I have lost track of what late penalties I applied to whom in the past so, given the fact your position is identical to mine (hopelessly adrift of the leaders) I won't bother to penalize this one. If we keep going in 2026, I am going to have to bring late penalties up to date with current practices and expectations, what I said in the past was going to result in quite a few very large late penalties in 2025 but there are some forecasters here who are never late and they probably feel a bit put out by overly lenient policies too. The problem for me is, the contest is well supported by a loyal group but at the same time we have pretty close to the bare minimum number participating to make it worthwhile, and I am trying to balance the fairness aspect with the existence altogether of the contest. 

Anyway, same goes for StormchaserChuck who has not posted yet, he's in the chase-the-chase pack with you and me, it really doesn't matter much if we reduce our scores even further, any one of us could win November and December and still finish 700 points back of Tom and hudsonvalley21 and 300 back of the chase pack behind the leaders. I am just trying to stay clear of Normal at this point.

 

General note -- all scoring updated and checked over, back in the thread before November forecasts. 

[wxdude64]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I have lost track of what late penalties I applied to whom in the past so, given the fact your position is identical to mine (hopelessly adrift of the leaders) I won't bother to penalize this one. If we keep going in 2026, I am going to have to bring late penalties up to date with current practices and expectations, what I said in the past was going to result in quite a few very large late penalties in 2025 but there are some forecasters here who are never late and they probably feel a bit put out by overly lenient policies too. The problem for me is, the contest is well supported by a loyal group but at the same time we have pretty close to the bare minimum number participating to make it worthwhile, and I am trying to balance the fairness aspect with the existence altogether of the contest. 

Anyway, same goes for StormchaserChuck who has not posted yet, he's in the chase-the-chase pack with you and me, it really doesn't matter much if we reduce our scores even further, any one of us could win November and December and still finish 700 points back of Tom and hudsonvalley21 and 300 back of the chase pack behind the leaders. I am just trying to stay clear of Normal at this point.

 

General note -- all scoring updated and checked over, back in the thread before November forecasts. 

LOL, yeah, this is NOT my year. I have no issue in some form of a penalty, it just slipped my brain. Maybe it was because I was home! I remembered twice this year to get picks in before the date while away but being home, it just went *poof*.

[Roger Smith]

 

 

__ Table of forecasts for November 2025 __

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___DEN _PHX _SEA

hudsonvalley21 ___________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___+0.1 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +2.2 _+1.5 _ -0.3

BKViking __________________ +1.3 _+1.1 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.5

so_whats_happening _____+1.1 _ +1.4 _+1.9 ___+1.4 _ +1.1 _+2.1 ___ +2.4 _+2.4 _+0.8

Tom _______________________ +1.1 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+1.1 _+1.4 _+1.7 ___  +1.9 _ +2.1 _+0.3

wxallannj __________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.8_+2.5 _+2.9 ___ +3.1 _+2.6 _+1.0

RJay ______________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.8_+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +3.8 _+3.5 _+1.7

Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __0.0

___ consensus ____________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.5 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+2.4 _+0.8

yoda ______________________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.6 ___+0.4 _+1.3 _+1.9 ___ +2.2 _+2.4 _+0.7

DonSutherland1 __________ +0.8 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.1 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+0.9 

___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0

RodneyS __________________ -0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 ___ +1.5 _-0.5 _+1.9 ___ +3.3 _+1.0 _+1.5

Roger Smith _______________-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 ___ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _+3.5 _+0.8

Ephesians2 _______________ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.5 ___ -2.5 _ -0.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _+4.0 _+3.0

wxdude64 ________________ -2.2 _-3.0 _-2.7 ___ -3.3 _ -1.5 _ -0.4 ___ +0.5 _+0.8 _+2.1

--------------

Persistence (Oct 2025) ___ -0.5 _+0.6 _+1.6 ___+4.1 _+1.3 _+4.2 ___+2.4 _+0.9 _-0.5

---------------

Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded; Normal is colder than all forecasts for DEN and PHX.

 

 

[Scotty Lightning]

On 11/3/2025 at 9:53 PM, wxdude64 said:

LOL, yeah, this is NOT my year. I have no issue in some form of a penalty, it just slipped my brain. Maybe it was because I was home! I remembered twice this year to get picks in before the date while away but being home, it just went *poof*.

As a fellow competitor I say that there should not be any penalty applied this month. 

[Roger Smith]

The old penalty structure was probably too harsh and would tend to inhibit people from posting relatively not-so-late forecasts, but having absolutely no late penalties is not that good either long-term, I will give it some thought for 2026 if we keep going, and have late penalties that make sense. Other contests that I am involved with have much more routine late penalties that are applied automatically (whether by me or some other person running a contest). The turnout for those is larger, which tends to mean that the contest organizer(s) are not as wary of annoying people with late penalties. I think as a scientific question, there is usually no more skill shown on 2nd or 3rd than there is on 1st or day before that. The late penalty concept for a monthly forecast contest is mostly to encourage on-time entries so everyone feels equally likely to do well and also so the organizer can get the table of forecasts done and move on to their normal routines. Sooner or later somebody is going to crush that 810 barrier, this could be the month, never know.  

[Roger Smith]

The anomalies to mid-month are roughly near normal in the east to +5 F in parts of the west. A somewhat colder interval lies ahead for most regions, with variations the final anomalies look likely to be near normal east to +3 west. I will track this more precisely in about a week and post some preliminary scoring. 

[Roger Smith]

Anomalies to 23rd and projections to end of November ...

______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

___ (anom 1___________+0.4 _ -1.1 _ -1.6 __ +2.3 _+4.7 _ +5.6 __+8.3 _+4.2 _ +2.8

___ ( p anom 1-30) ___-0.5 _ -1.5 _-2.0 __ +1.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 __ +5.0 _+3.0 _ +1.5

 

Very cold air is going to spread into DEN after 28th knocking down that large positive considerably; otherwise just a bit colder in most locations than it has been on average ... will post the preliminary scoring and adjust it on the 1st of December when these values are better defined. (Note DCA anom includes two missing days, not looking like it would be much different if those days were included). 

DEN has also been very dry, precip to date is only 0.08" for November. Some snow is expected with the cold wave. I notice NYC is also running quite dry at just over one inch of rain to date. 

[Roger Smith]

 

Preliminary scoring for November 2025

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA _ west __TOTAL

hudsonvalley21 __________ 62 _ 38 _34 _ 134 _ 82 _76 _44 _202_ 336_ 44 _70 _64 _ 178 ___ 514

BKViking _________________ 64 _ 48 _40 _ 152 _100_68 _56 _224_ 376_ 42 _78 _80 _ 200 ___ 576

so_whats_happening _____68 _ 42 _22 _ 132 _ 92 _62 _62 _216 _ 348_ 48 _88 _86 _ 222 ___ 570

Tom ______________________ 68 _ 54 _46 _ 168 _ 98 _68 _54 _220_ 388_ 38 _82 _76 _ 196 ___ 584

wxallannj _________________ 70 _ 50 _40 _ 160 _ 64 _90 _78 _232_ 392_ 62 _92 _90 _ 244 ___ 636 

RJay ______________________70 _ 50 _40 _ 160 _ 96 _90 _70 _256 _ 416_ 76 _90 _96 _ 262 ___ 678

Scotty Lightning __________70 _ 50 _40 _ 160 _ 90 _70 _50 _210 _ 370 _ 10 _60 _70 _ 140 ___ 510

___ consensus ____________ 70 _ 54 _46 _ 170 _ 90 _68 _56 _214 _ 384 _ 42 _88 _86 _ 216 ___ 600

yoda ______________________70 _ 54 _48 _ 172 _ 88 _66 _58 _212 _ 384 _ 44 _88 _86 _ 218 ___ 602

DonSutherland1 __________ 74 _ 54 _46 _ 174 _ 82 _80 _64 _226 _ 400 _60 _90 _88 _ 238 ___ 638 

___ Normal ________________90 _ 70 _60 _ 220 _ 80 _60 _20 _160 _ 380 _ 00 _40 _70 _ 110 ___ 490

RodneyS __________________98 _ 68 _66 _ 232 _ 90 _30 _58 _178 _ 410 _ 66 _ 60_100_ 226 ___ 636

Roger Smith ______________ 82 _ 98 _94 _ 274 _ 34 _00 _38 _072 _ 346 _ 30 _90 _86_ 206 ___ 552

Ephesians2 _______________ 80 _ 90 _90 _ 260 _ 30 _30 _50 _ 110 _ 370 _ 40 _80 _70 _ 190 ___ 560

wxdude64 ________________ 66 _ 70 _ 86 _ 222 _ 14 _ 10 _12 _ 036 _ 258 _ 10 _56 _88 _ 154 ___ 412 

--------------

Persistence (Oct 2025) ___100 _ 58 _ 28 _ 186 _ 38 _66 _96 _ 200 _ 386 _ 48 _58 _60 _ 166 ___ 552

---------------

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

NYC, BOS _ On current projections, wins for Roger Smith (second lowest forecasts) and losses for wxdude64 (lowest forecasts), would change to wins if actual values are below -2.2).

ATL, IAH _ On current projections, wins for wxallannj (for ATL tied with RJay) for highest forecasts.

DEN _ On current projection, win for RJay (highest forecast)

PHX _ too close to call at this point, may be a win-loss situation or a straight win.

DCA, ORD, and SEA currently not extreme forecasts.

 

 

(forecasts)

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___DEN _PHX _SEA

hudsonvalley21 ___________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___+0.1 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +2.2 _+1.5 _ -0.3

BKViking __________________ +1.3 _+1.1 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.5

so_whats_happening _____ +1.1 _ +1.4 _+1.9 ___+1.4 _ +1.1 _+2.1 ___ +2.4 _+2.4 _+0.8

Tom _______________________ +1.1 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+1.1 _+1.4 _+1.7 ___  +1.9 _ +2.1 _+0.3

wxallannj __________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.8_+2.5 _+2.9 ___ +3.1 _+2.6 _+1.0

RJay ______________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.8_+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +3.8 _+3.5 _+1.7

Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __0.0

___ consensus ____________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.5 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+2.4 _+0.8

yoda ______________________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.6 ___+0.4 _+1.3 _+1.9 ___ +2.2 _+2.4 _+0.7

DonSutherland1 __________ +0.8 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.1 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+0.9 

___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0

RodneyS __________________ -0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 ___ +1.5 _-0.5 _+1.9 ___ +3.3 _+1.0 _+1.5

Roger Smith _______________-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 ___ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _+3.5 _+0.8

Ephesians2 _______________ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.5 ___ -2.5 _ -0.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _+4.0 _+3.0

wxdude64 ________________ -2.2 _-3.0 _-2.7 ___ -3.3 _ -1.5 _ -0.4 ___ +0.5 _+0.8 _+2.1

--------------

Persistence (Oct 2025) ___ -0.5 _+0.6 _+1.6 ___+4.1 _+1.3 _+4.2 ___+2.4 _+0.9 _-0.5

---------------