2025 forecast contests -- enter for November 2025 contest (deadline 06z November 1st)

[wxallannj]

DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

1.0       1.0      1.0       2.8    2.5    2.9      3.1      2.6     1.0

 

November

[Ephesians2]

DCA: -1.5

NYC: -1.0

BOS: -1.5

ORD: -2.5

ATL: 0.5

IAH: 1.5

DEN: 2.0

PHX: 4.0

SEA: 3.0

[Roger Smith]

-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 __ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _ +3.5 _ +0.8

[yoda]

DCA: +1.0

NYC: +0.8

BOS: +0.6

ORD: +0.4

ATL:  +1.3

IAH: +1.9

DEN: +2.2

PHX: +2.4

SEA: +0.7

[bkviking]

DCA: +1.3

NYC: +1.1

BOS: +1.0

ORD: +1.0

ATL: +1.4

IAH: +1.8

DEN: +2.1

PHX: +1.9

SEA: +0.5

[so_whats_happening]

DCA     NYC   BOS    ORD    ATL    IAH    DEN    PHX     SEA   

  1.1        1.4       1.9      1.4       1.1       2.1     2.4      2.4       .8

[wxdude64]

This will be ugly, completely forgot!

DCA: -2.2

NYC: -3.0

BOS: -2.7

ORD: -3.3

ATL: -1.5

IAH: -0.4

DEN: +0.5

PHX: +0.8

SEA: +2.1

[Roger Smith]

On 11/2/2025 at 6:32 PM, wxdude64 said:

This will be ugly, completely forgot!

DCA: -2.2

NYC: -3.0

BOS: -2.7

ORD: -3.3

ATL: -1.5

IAH: -0.4

DEN: +0.5

PHX: +0.8

SEA: +2.1

I have lost track of what late penalties I applied to whom in the past so, given the fact your position is identical to mine (hopelessly adrift of the leaders) I won't bother to penalize this one. If we keep going in 2026, I am going to have to bring late penalties up to date with current practices and expectations, what I said in the past was going to result in quite a few very large late penalties in 2025 but there are some forecasters here who are never late and they probably feel a bit put out by overly lenient policies too. The problem for me is, the contest is well supported by a loyal group but at the same time we have pretty close to the bare minimum number participating to make it worthwhile, and I am trying to balance the fairness aspect with the existence altogether of the contest. 

Anyway, same goes for StormchaserChuck who has not posted yet, he's in the chase-the-chase pack with you and me, it really doesn't matter much if we reduce our scores even further, any one of us could win November and December and still finish 700 points back of Tom and hudsonvalley21 and 300 back of the chase pack behind the leaders. I am just trying to stay clear of Normal at this point.

 

General note -- all scoring updated and checked over, back in the thread before November forecasts. 

[wxdude64]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I have lost track of what late penalties I applied to whom in the past so, given the fact your position is identical to mine (hopelessly adrift of the leaders) I won't bother to penalize this one. If we keep going in 2026, I am going to have to bring late penalties up to date with current practices and expectations, what I said in the past was going to result in quite a few very large late penalties in 2025 but there are some forecasters here who are never late and they probably feel a bit put out by overly lenient policies too. The problem for me is, the contest is well supported by a loyal group but at the same time we have pretty close to the bare minimum number participating to make it worthwhile, and I am trying to balance the fairness aspect with the existence altogether of the contest. 

Anyway, same goes for StormchaserChuck who has not posted yet, he's in the chase-the-chase pack with you and me, it really doesn't matter much if we reduce our scores even further, any one of us could win November and December and still finish 700 points back of Tom and hudsonvalley21 and 300 back of the chase pack behind the leaders. I am just trying to stay clear of Normal at this point.

 

General note -- all scoring updated and checked over, back in the thread before November forecasts. 

LOL, yeah, this is NOT my year. I have no issue in some form of a penalty, it just slipped my brain. Maybe it was because I was home! I remembered twice this year to get picks in before the date while away but being home, it just went *poof*.

[Roger Smith]

 

 

__ Table of forecasts for November 2025 __

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___DEN _PHX _SEA

hudsonvalley21 ___________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___+0.1 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +2.2 _+1.5 _ -0.3

BKViking __________________ +1.3 _+1.1 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.5

so_whats_happening _____+1.1 _ +1.4 _+1.9 ___+1.4 _ +1.1 _+2.1 ___ +2.4 _+2.4 _+0.8

Tom _______________________ +1.1 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+1.1 _+1.4 _+1.7 ___  +1.9 _ +2.1 _+0.3

wxallannj __________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.8_+2.5 _+2.9 ___ +3.1 _+2.6 _+1.0

RJay ______________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.8_+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +3.8 _+3.5 _+1.7

Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __0.0

___ consensus ____________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.5 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+2.4 _+0.8

yoda ______________________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.6 ___+0.4 _+1.3 _+1.9 ___ +2.2 _+2.4 _+0.7

DonSutherland1 __________ +0.8 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.1 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+0.9 

___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0

RodneyS __________________ -0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 ___ +1.5 _-0.5 _+1.9 ___ +3.3 _+1.0 _+1.5

Roger Smith _______________-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 ___ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _+3.5 _+0.8

Ephesians2 _______________ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.5 ___ -2.5 _ -0.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _+4.0 _+3.0

wxdude64 ________________ -2.2 _-3.0 _-2.7 ___ -3.3 _ -1.5 _ -0.4 ___ +0.5 _+0.8 _+2.1

--------------

Persistence (Oct 2025) ___ -0.5 _+0.6 _+1.6 ___+4.1 _+1.3 _+4.2 ___+2.4 _+0.9 _-0.5

---------------

Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded; Normal is colder than all forecasts for DEN and PHX.

 

 

[Scotty Lightning]

On 11/3/2025 at 9:53 PM, wxdude64 said:

LOL, yeah, this is NOT my year. I have no issue in some form of a penalty, it just slipped my brain. Maybe it was because I was home! I remembered twice this year to get picks in before the date while away but being home, it just went *poof*.

As a fellow competitor I say that there should not be any penalty applied this month. 

[Roger Smith]

The old penalty structure was probably too harsh and would tend to inhibit people from posting relatively not-so-late forecasts, but having absolutely no late penalties is not that good either long-term, I will give it some thought for 2026 if we keep going, and have late penalties that make sense. Other contests that I am involved with have much more routine late penalties that are applied automatically (whether by me or some other person running a contest). The turnout for those is larger, which tends to mean that the contest organizer(s) are not as wary of annoying people with late penalties. I think as a scientific question, there is usually no more skill shown on 2nd or 3rd than there is on 1st or day before that. The late penalty concept for a monthly forecast contest is mostly to encourage on-time entries so everyone feels equally likely to do well and also so the organizer can get the table of forecasts done and move on to their normal routines. Sooner or later somebody is going to crush that 810 barrier, this could be the month, never know.