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Major Hurricane Helene


BooneWX
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12 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Rain will be the big story in the Carolinas but with ample pre-event rainfall this week, even shaving 10% off of these numbers is nerve wrecking for many 

Screenshot 2024-09-24 at 8.12.25 AM.jpeg

I think winds are a big concern for the higher elevations of the southern Apps, even if Helene is not as strong as some of the models sugguest at landfall. I am hopeful that winds will have lost their punch by the time they get to the Northern Piedmont 

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As I say the above just to help keep things grounded but the way things look currently we are in fact in the bullseye with this thing and as mentioned from previous post in the tropical thread this thing might be moving at 25mph. Good for cutting down on rainfall rates a but but bad because the wind field will be mostly intact and that could be very damaging to the area.

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3 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

This predecessor rainfall event may be a death blow to us. This keeps inching more and more into our area for heavy rainfall from this first upper low. 12z NAM...qpf_acc-imp.us_ma.jpg

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

We’ve been so very fortunate in recent tropical setups over the past few years to have borderline drought conditions preceding the higher wind threat. Not this time.

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Just now, BooneWX said:

You hate to see rain totals that would get you excited if they were snow totals. Never good!

Bad thing is that's probably underdone too for upslope areas. I say 12-14" is likely unless the track changes drastically and the Precursor event totally misses us.

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4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Much weaker GFS run incoming after it interacts heavily with the Yucatán. We’ll see if it has any downstream impacts. 

Update: Very little difference. GFS is closer to the 00Z run but we still get zero metered by a reasonably strong tropical storm. 

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Looking more closely at the GFS, it shows the system struggling to stack vertically with the mid level and llc displaced until it’s well into the Gulf. Taking that with a grain of salt considering the sw sheer its feeling is abating quickly. 

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