Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations

[aggiegeog]

Temps in NE TX range from 6 to 15 this morning and shaded spots are still very slick.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Still time for things to change for Monday, but GFS still shows the warm sector confined to the immediate coast and a near saturated sounding from the surface to 200 mb.  Greater than 50 knot LLJ and PW's near 1.6 inches and a divergent jet means heavy rain, which all the important globals have been seeing for several days.  GFS/CMC/Euro differ in exact amounts and locations, but all show widespread 2 inch plus amounts.  Differences become more pronounced with succeeding rain events, but the neg tilt trough is in no hurry to move out.  By Thursday evening the rain events have dropped a large area of 5 inches with some 10 inch amounts showing up.  Not ruling out severe, the warm sector coming a bit farther inland opens up SETX and the Coastal Bend, and there are hints of that for Wednesday. 

[vwgrrc]

Some freezing rain seems likely for Monday AM in DFW metro. Still could change a lot at this point.

 

[aggiegeog]

Would t be surprised to see a WWA for NW half of N TX and possibly expanded a bit SE from there. 

[vwgrrc]

36 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Would t be surprised to see a WWA for NW half of N TX and possibly expanded a bit SE from there. 

Interestingly tho i don't think it's common to see NAM being so strong for a FZRN event in NTX while all other models keep that in OK, especially given it's now only 48 hr out. It normally the opposite! Curious to see how AFD gonna interpret the divergence. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Models have backed off a smidge on next week's rain in S/SE Texas, but widespread >3 inch rains still look possibly.  FWD not going with a WWA, models came in a smidge less precip and slightly warmer temps per AFD.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Light rain been going on since very early this morning around here. 12Z BRO/CRP soundings this morning (and 0Z yesterday evening) already showing steep mid-level LRs 7 - 8, as I suspected. And deep/efficient WAA near 40 kts all the way up to 700Mb, above this still chilly but extremely shallow residual polar airmass. It doesn't even look like it's at least a kilofoot in depth from the surface around here.

Thunder does look to get going here in STX and north toward San Antonio tonight ahead of that first significant and seemingly pretty strong 500Mb shortwave coming out of northern Mex. Both globals & CAMs have been showing this pretty well, and thunder initiation near the Rio Grande around midnight (but can be sooner in the evening with all the WAA already going on observed soundings).

Parameters Tuesday - Wednesday still look interesting for stronger storms with hail & maybe damaging wind for the southern half of state. Multi-global model output still has maxed-out thunder probabilities over mid-upper coast in that timeframe also.

Tomorrow there should be thunder with >7C ML lapse rates, but they won't be surface based.  Now, SPC has outlooked a Marginal for Wednesday.  Tuesday looks sort of interesting S of I-10.

[Stx_Thunder]

4 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Tomorrow there should be thunder with >7C ML lapse rates, but they won't be surface based.

Houston, probably no thunder till daytime Monday. But in Southern TX tonight, CAMs honing in around midnight from around Rio Grande City - San Antonio (but could be earlier with deeper cells forming out west over Mex this evening). Euro has been consistent on this also the past several days. But even GFS showing stronger stuff now around that same timeframe in that area also.

It already looks to be a pretty strong incoming 500Mb and at least neutrally-tilted shortwave (seeing southeasterly lower-level flow @ 35kts on BRO/CRP radar VWP right now), so could be more organized/near sfc-based storms on mid-upper coast early Monday as at least 60 DPs on coast in most models including GFS & Euro with surface low/warm front nearby. But even further inland could have a few at minimum frequent lightning and small hail producing elevated storms with 40 - 50 kts DL shear also being shown and pretty cool 700Mb/500Mb temps (along with already steep mid-level lapse rates).

[Stx_Thunder]

 

- Thunder picking up out over ol' Mexico, 'n getting closer..

Can also see that mid/upper level Low spinning on top left (near Arizona)

[aggiegeog]

The freezing line is pushing SE it's down along Hwy 80 into Wood County then up towards Texarkana. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Training storms in a SW-Ne axis looking to actually be shifting North from E of SAT up to near SHV.  That line will never make Houston, but latest HRRR has more development over S Texas that should be approaching the HOU metro early morning.

[Powerball]

I am so over this Seattle-esque weather...

[Chargers09]

50 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I am so over this Seattle-esque weather...

We need the rain 

[Powerball]

At last, the Sun (and possibly 70s) has returned!!!

[Sydney Claridge]

On 1/28/2024 at 10:28 AM, Powerball said:

At last, the Sun (and possibly 70s) has returned!!!

It’s 75 here in Fort Worth today! Absolutely beautiful.

Seems like we’re expected to see highs in the 70s through Thursday, with rain (and thunderstorms) returning Friday.

[Stx_Thunder]

Mostly boring wx this week into early next week. Though more cloud cover should be coming back and maybe some fog the next 2 days ahead of Friday night's incoming trough.

Convective parameters not looking impressive Friday night and with 500Mb High out over the southern Gulf, will likely limit the quality of moisture/instability return for better storms or severe. 500Mb heights are currently above 580 here in STX on 0Z observed upper air data this evening (which is fairly high for this time of year).

Models kind of over-performed on last week's thunder coverage/intensity (probly rainfall too). And the main trough that brought the last round of storms over the southern half of state last Wednesday night turned out to be more positively-tilted than forecast. I ended up missing all of that action off to the north in San Antonio & Houston regions.

Though, it was funny how it cleared out very nicely on Thursday here in STX (behind that departing trough), then all the lower level clouds and dampness came right back all day on Friday ahead of another trough that caused some other storms over NTX & SETX ahead of the cold front that evening last week.

----------

Later next week could get pretty interesting as main globals/ensembles have been showing some persistent troughing setting up out west going into week of Feb 12th.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Rumble of thunder just now N suburbs of Houston.  Earlier than expected.  Radar not that impressive.  I don't expect severe, it is just too cool (I still don't know how 60sF work further N but not here- confirmed rope tornado with temps in the low 60s), although I suppose marginally severe hail is possible (latest HRRR shows ~1000 mb of MUCAPE.  HRRR is less enthusiastic with midnight/just after severe in the AUS-SAT corridor.

[Stx_Thunder]

-  Pretty long/sharp frontal convective line moving through the northern half (will likely affect DFW later on) and some pretty large discrete clusters moving fairly rapidly around San Antonio now.

Some severe hail reports (< 2 in), few wind reports and a tornado report out there over the Rio Grande plains/Western hill country, but nothing too significant from what I'm seeing on report data feed so far this evening. And not seeing any real powerful lightning strikes on analysis anywhere.

[Stx_Thunder]

5 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Rumble of thunder just now N suburbs of Houston.  Earlier than expected.  Radar not that impressive.  I don't expect severe, it is just too cool (I still don't know how 60sF work further N but not here- confirmed rope tornado with temps in the low 60s), although I suppose marginally severe hail is possible (latest HRRR shows ~1000 mb of MUCAPE.  HRRR is less enthusiastic with midnight/just after severe in the AUS-SAT corridor.

 

Incoming mid-upper trough into Plains is indeed a bit negatively-tilted (looking at that backed south-southeasterly flow up there in that region) on observed 0Z 500Mb & 300Mb data this evening. That could also be because of that Omega block High that's off to the northeast near the Great Lakes region now. 500Mb Heights are now < 570 in most of TX. And we're pretty much getting into the LFQ down here of that pretty strong ULL jet streak nosing in from the west. So can't rule out some persistent stronger storms through the rest of the night at least over the southern half of state.

The clusters in San Antonio region have a good chance of sustaining themselves/becoming more organized toward Houston with all the SSE inflow going on now around there too on HGX radar VWP in the lower levels this evening. And mid-level LRs are quite steep on 0Z CRP sounding (> 8 C/km between 700Mb & 500Mb) too, but.. there's that typical stout cap/EML just above 850Mb down here (though it's below 850Mb on BRO). So thunder action again doesn't look too great here in STX because of that & the incoming front tonight as there'll likely be more high-based cells like the CAMs were showing since yesterday.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

31 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

 

Incoming mid-upper trough into Plains is indeed a bit negatively-tilted (looking at that backed south-southeasterly flow up there in that region) on observed 0Z 500Mb & 250Mb data this evening. That could also be because of that Omega block High that's off to the northeast near the Great Lakes region now. 500Mb Heights are now < 570 in most of TX. And we're pretty much getting into the LFQ down here of that pretty strong ULL jet streak nosing in from the west. So can't rule out some persistent stronger storms through the rest of the night at least over the southern half of state.

The clusters in San Antonio region have a good chance of sustaining themselves/becoming more organized toward Houston area with all the SSE inflow going on now around there too on radar VWP in the lower levels this evening. And mid-level LRs are quite steep on 0Z CRP sounding (> 8 C/km between 700Mb & 500Mb) too, but there's that typical stout cap/EML just above 850Mb down here (though it's below 850Mb on BRO). So thunder action again doesn't look too great because of that & the incoming front in STX tonight as they'll likely be more high-based cells like the CAMs were showing since yesterday.

 

I didn't mention the DYX area tornado was in low 60sF dewpoint,  Temps that cool never support surface based severe in HGX.  Noticing for years Wyoming having tornadoes with 65/50.  cc; @Chinook

Rainfall with earlier storms may exceed forecast Houston area 1-2"  

[Stx_Thunder]

 

-  Main thunder line developing west of San Antonio. Latest 6Z HRRR and 0Z FV3 both showing it slicing through mid-upper coast (CRP - HOU) before sunrise.

Can also clearly see that developing mid-upper level Low up there off to the west of Amarillo/southeast NM/CO border.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I-35 corridor from just S of Austin to San Antonio and westward toward the Mexican border has a sig severe hail risk.  I'm wondering about Houston tomorrow, little low level instability or shear but >7C lapse rates above a slight warm nose and shear with slight turning but increasing from ~40 knots at 850 mb to 70 knots at 500 mb should mean at least a chance for hail here.  Ensembles show a fairly strong looking trough in the sub tropical jet approaching California and the Baja late this week into the weekend.  Strong signal on the big 3 ensembles for significant rain down @Stx_Thunder's direction.

[cstrunk]

Southern Tyler had up to 2 inch hail about 30 mins ago. It's headed towards Longview now but should focus on the central/southern part of town and the worst should miss me.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

 

[Powerball]

This wekeend will hopefuly be the last freeze of the season, and we can transition into Spring mode.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

17 hours ago, Powerball said:

This weekend will hopefully be the last freeze of the season, and we can transition into Spring mode.

I noticed during Spring Break (all years but one I was working in Austin, but it applied to South Party Island as well) there was usually one final 2 or 4 day break of 40s at night and 50s day, and more seasons than not that was the final really depressing cool (but not cold enough to snow) snap of winter.  I remember the Central Texas Easter weekend snow of 2007 (I had to check Google for the year).

[Stx_Thunder]

On 2/11/2024 at 7:30 AM, cstrunk said:

Southern Tyler had up to 2 inch hail about 30 mins ago. It's headed towards Longview now but should focus on the central/southern part of town and the worst should miss me.

Apparently baseball size hail (2.75 in. diameter) was reported a little further southwest of Tyler on superbowl Sunday morning:

It turned out to be more severe wx active than I thought it was going to be in ETX. Especially being early in the morning.

I was a little under the weather, so I wasn’t aware of how potent the environment aloft actually was for large hail. But I definitely see why it happened around there (despite the very limited CAPE in the region), looking at the 12 Z DFW/Fort Worth sounding from that morning:

 

- I circled the parameters of note. But particularly the FZL (freezing level), and WBZ (wet-bulb zero height) ones were definitely both in that SIG hail range. WBZ height wasn’t any higher further east/southeast on SHV & LCH soundings (Shreveport & Lake Charles LA). But anything between 7000’ - 10500’ means a heightened large hail risk. Also have to note that fairly impressive BRN (Bulk Richardson number) shear value @ 200 concerning supercell risk.

(from NWS glossary: https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php)

*  Shreveport LA observed sounding:

 

- Pretty deep, well-defined 500Mb Low out west over NM on 12Z observed sounding compiled data that morning also.

 

[Stx_Thunder]

Looks like Laredo is going to reach & potentially exceed its first 100 F mark of 2024 tomorrow (before end of February), looking at those latest GFS/Euro runs today. And seeing the actual high of 98 F today (even mid 90s in DFW) out there with all this ridging/subtropical high influence that’s been going on aloft since earlier last week.

It’s not extremely unusual on record in February for Laredo to reach 100 F, but there may be a 50+ degree difference further behind Wednesday’s incoming Polar or Canadian front, on Thursday.

Overrunning precip activity in the state late this week not looking impressive on models, but both GFS/Euro showing mid-level LRs will be steep Thursday night with rising PW ahead of some incoming mid-upper level southern stream shortwave energy. So can’t rule some thunder activity over the southern half/coastal region. But any severe storms with the front itself entering the state Tuesday night should stay east/northeast, this time. But, things could get more convectively active again with more severe potential starting early next week as it looks like the more active subtropical jet pattern from Jan - early Feb looks to be coming back at least to an extent in March.

 

On 2/17/2024 at 12:07 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I noticed during Spring Break (all years but one I was working in Austin, but it applied to South Party Island as well) there was usually one final 2 or 4 day break of 40s at night and 50s day, and more seasons than not that was the final really depressing cool (but not cold enough to snow) snap of winter.  I remember the Central Texas Easter weekend snow of 2007 (I had to check Google for the year).

 

Polar air mass intrusions aren’t really uncommon in the whole state during March and even somewhat in April, at least during the past 2 decades. I also recall the 2007 Easter weekend cold snap (which was more unusual as it got into the 30s in STX that Saturday night going into Easter Sunday). There was another notable one in 2004 Easter weekend and it was interesting both had decent elevated thunder events down here at night going into Easter Sunday.

Though I can definitely recall a number of March cold snaps during the 2010s. But most notably in 2014 (March 3rd to be exact), where that was an actual Arctic origin airmass that came into the whole state. It only managed around 40 F during daytime down here in STX (and solid overrunning low-level cloudiness), so the airmass was obviously very shallow. Though I do remember looking at the 0Z March 4, 2014 BRO & CRP observed soundings.

Not only that and even more interesting and awesome this time, there were actual (still elevated) thunderstorms (some fairly strong near the lower Rio Grande on VIL) going on around here in the abnormally cold overrunning environment. And north-northeast from San Antonio - SE/ETX (all sub-severe in the state as far as I can remember even though SPC was monitoring when they got going in the state that evening). As a stout mid-level southern stream shortwave was coming in from Mex. It was definitely cold enough aloft in ETX for all winter precip types (thunder sleet/graupel, snow, and freezing rain).

But seeing actual CG lightning bolts going on a couple miles just behind my backyard and 38 F actual temp outside down here…, man that was just crazy awesome.

There was also ample MUCAPE with that activity back then (around 1000 j/kg), to note as well. Not like these Low/very low CAPE severe events that have been happening in the state recently earlier this month and in January. Which could be concerning going into spring this year.

- - - - -

Here’s a snapshot of the archived mesoscale discussion SPC had put up for freezing rain that evening back in March 2014:

[Stx_Thunder]

On 2/17/2024 at 12:07 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I noticed during Spring Break (all years but one I was working in Austin, but it applied to South Party Island as well) there was usually one final 2 or 4 day break of 40s at night and 50s day, and more seasons than not that was the final really depressing cool (but not cold enough to snow) snap of winter.

By the way, I’m assuming that was a typo for ‘South Padre Island’.

But the way you wrote it is legit pretty much what it is anyway there in deep STX  lol

[aggiegeog]

On 2/26/2024 at 8:34 PM, Stx_Thunder said:

Looks like Laredo is going to reach & potentially exceed its first 100 F mark of 2024 tomorrow (before end of February), looking at those latest GFS/Euro runs today. And seeing the actual high of 98 F today (even mid 90s in DFW) out there with all this ridging/subtropical high influence that’s been going on aloft since earlier last week.

It’s not extremely unusual on record in February for Laredo to reach 100 F, but there may be a 50+ degree difference further behind Wednesday’s incoming Polar or Canadian front, on Thursday.

Overrunning precip activity in the state late this week not looking impressive on models, but both GFS/Euro showing mid-level LRs will be steep Thursday night with rising PW ahead of some incoming mid-upper level southern stream shortwave energy. So can’t rule some thunder activity over the southern half/coastal region. But any severe storms with the front itself entering the state Tuesday night should stay east/northeast, this time. But, things could get more convectively active again with more severe potential starting early next week as it looks like the more active subtropical jet pattern from Jan - early Feb looks to be coming back at least to an extent in March.

 

 

Polar air mass intrusions aren’t really uncommon in the whole state during March and even somewhat in April, at least during the past 2 decades. I also recall the 2007 Easter weekend cold snap (which was more unusual as it got into the 30s in STX that Saturday night going into Easter Sunday). There was another notable one in 2004 Easter weekend and it was interesting both had decent elevated thunder events down here at night going into Easter Sunday.

Though I can definitely recall a number of March cold snaps during the 2010s. But most notably in 2014 (March 3rd to be exact), where that was an actual Arctic origin airmass that came into the whole state. It only managed around 40 F during daytime down here in STX (and solid overrunning low-level cloudiness), so the airmass was obviously very shallow. Though I do remember looking at the 0Z March 4, 2014 BRO & CRP observed soundings.

Not only that and even more interesting and awesome this time, there were actual (still elevated) thunderstorms (some fairly strong near the lower Rio Grande on VIL) going on around here in the abnormally cold overrunning environment. And north-northeast from San Antonio - SE/ETX (all sub-severe in the state as far as I can remember even though SPC was monitoring when they got going in the state that evening). As a stout mid-level southern stream shortwave was coming in from Mex. It was definitely cold enough aloft in ETX for all winter precip types (thunder sleet/graupel, snow, and freezing rain).

But seeing actual CG lightning bolts going on a couple miles just behind my backyard and 38 F actual temp outside down here…, man that was just crazy awesome.

There was also ample MUCAPE with that activity back then (around 1000 j/kg), to note as well. Not like these Low/very low CAPE severe events that have been happening in the state recently earlier this month and in January. Which could be concerning going into spring this year.

- - - - -

Here’s a snapshot of the archived mesoscale discussion SPC had put up for freezing rain that evening back in March 2014:

 

That early March 2014 In Tyler featured a night of heavy thundersleet followed by a day with highs around 20 and lake effect flurries.