jwilson Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 To add to the test of this progressive system: SREF plumes last three runs have averaged between 3.5" and 4.5" total. Even taking off the top two outliers from last run the average remains almost four inches. Be interesting to see which blend wins. SREFs are typically overdone, only four members have less than two inches, but that's an interesting discrepancy compared to the NBM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 23 minutes ago, jwilson said: I don't think those point-and-click forecasts are made by people plugging in data. I think it's automatic from their backend software / system. I want to test the NBM. Right now, it says 9% chance of snow exceeding 4" and 43% chance of snow exceeding 2" (this is in the city). Making a note now. Yeah, you’re most likely right. It’s just this looks…strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Nws refuses to hoist an advisory. They give us a 4% chance to see more than 4 inches of snow. Hopefully they bust hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Nws refuses to hoist an advisory. They give us a 4% chance to see more than 4 inches of snow. Hopefully they bust hard. That's how they are. Wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with 3" and no advisory. Vice versa they'll keep an advisory for far too long after they've busted low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 13 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Nws refuses to hoist an advisory. They give us a 4% chance to see more than 4 inches of snow. Hopefully they bust hard. They’ve busted hard with the last few rainstorms forecasting way more rain than we actually got so maybe a little gun shy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Ahoff said: That's how they are. Wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with 3" and no advisory. Vice versa they'll keep an advisory for far too long after they've busted low. The last snowstorm we had was that 9” event in March 2022 and they rolled with an advisory. Sure, it was a weekend in the middle of the night and most fell in a few hours so they probably didn’t have time to change it before it was too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 25 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Nws refuses to hoist an advisory. They give us a 4% chance to see more than 4 inches of snow. Hopefully they bust hard. I haven't had time to dig deep into latest runs. How do thermals look? They might be concerned mixing reduces totals especially if Allegheny doesn't get the heavier rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 21 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I haven't had time to dig deep into latest runs. How do thermals look? They might be concerned mixing reduces totals especially if Allegheny doesn't get the heavier rates. I'm guessing that's the case honestly. HRRR looks warm although another met said it usually verifies a few degrees colder than depicted. Our area is ridiculously hard to forecast and idt people understand that. Our forecast could literally be 1-6 with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Areas of Ohio starting to get advisories. Going to guess KPIT stubbornly goes down with the ship here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I'm not gonna lie I just got home and checked the HRRR and i don't think it's ideal that we are seeing signs of the WTOD. I guess we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Oh for god’s sake…the 0z hrrr has the double whammy over us of a precip hole AND rain. I should have known better than to think we wouldn’t get screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Oh for god’s sake…the 0z hrrr has the double whammy over us of a precip hole AND rain. I should have known better than to think we wouldn’t get screwed It's over no cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Rd9108 said: It's over no cold air. We needed heavy rates and for a bit models were showing that. Now though it’s a disorganized mess and it will drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I’m even more annoyed because I let this bait me back in, thinking we could potentially salvage a 4-6 inch event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Would you relax and wait til tomorrow morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, dj3 said: Would you relax and wait til tomorrow morning Shhh I enjoy the meltdown. This is a nowcasting event imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 0z HRRR was garbage but sometimes it has bad runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Yet the HRRR still puts down 3.7”. Just wait and see, and if it doesn't produce then you shouldn’t be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/2/2024 at 5:03 PM, Rd9108 said: Gfs 18z and it's gone Fuck this hobby Hopefully once this is sampled we get better trends Hush. You’ve melted down way more than me during this event. stop being a troll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 15 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Yet the HRRR still puts down 3.7”. Just wait and see, and if it doesn't produce then you shouldn’t be surprised. 3.7” at 10:1. All the mixing issues and shit cut the kuchera in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 NAM mixes it to hell too. Stick a fork in it. WHAT THE FUCK DO WE HAVE TO DO TO GET AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AROUND HERE? IT’S BEEN 22 FUCKING MONTHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Lol once the WTOD shows up its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Lol once the WTOD shows up its over. It’s done. Rain while a low is centered in North Carolina, in January. Our climo is misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Christ, the goddamn rain is on every short range model that is currently running. Fuck this shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 This hobby might not be for you, especially in our current drought. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 663 days and counting since our last advisory level event. By far the longest such streak since 1990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I think we’ll get several hours of moderate snow tomorrow. If it is too warm to stick who cares. Let’s just try to get some snow flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, dj3 said: I think we’ll get several hours of moderate snow tomorrow. If it is too warm to stick who cares. Let’s just try to get some snow flying It shouldn’t be too warm to stick, it’s prime January climo with a storm passing well to our south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 That’s what’s upsetting. It’s the type of storm that would have NEVER produced a drop of rain 30 years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, TimB said: That’s what’s upsetting. It’s the type of storm that would have NEVER produced a drop of rain 30 years ago. The storm is a POS compared to what was modeled 5 days ago. It would be a POS shit now or in 1992. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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