TimB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 12 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Euro is doing what is most likely gonna happen and forming the wave on further east most likely on the arctic front. Unless this amps up from a phase I just don't see this being a threat for us. Maybe we sneak an inch or two atleast but I wouldn't expect much more. Now the models this far out are gonna change so who knows. We did the bitter cold with bare ground thing twice last winter, why not do it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 National blend of models fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 27 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: National blend of models fwiw That’d be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Euro is doing what is most likely gonna happen and forming the wave on further east most likely on the arctic front. Unless this amps up from a phase I just don't see this being a threat for us. Maybe we sneak an inch or two atleast but I wouldn't expect much more. Now the models this far out are gonna change so who knows. Pretty chaotic with all the shortwaves in play, honestly pretty low ROI tracking right now, at least until the big midwest low does it's thing. Just glancing at the different runs at 500 there are some pretty big run to run changes. It is a weather discussion board though, so if your here, what else are you going to do right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 We are so overdo for a 12"+ calendar day, it's not even funny. I'm not sure this streak will ever end. Might be permanent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: We are so overdo for a 12"+ calendar day, it's not even funny. I'm not sure this streak will ever end. Might be permanent. We just hit 30 years on this streak last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: We are so overdo for a 12"+ calendar day, it's not even funny. I'm not sure this streak will ever end. Might be permanent. thats is insane... 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Still, it’s slightly skewed by the fact that 2010 happened to be split pretty evenly between two days, which is just bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: thats is insane... 1994 I guess it was just bad luck that it didn't fall during the 2010 storm. Straddled two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said: I guess it was just bad luck that it didn't fall during the 2010 storm. Straddled two days. 2018 also was a two day thing but I'm pretty sure we eclipsed 12 inches. Maybe this is our year... This might a case of 2010 where the Mid-Atlantic needs 40 for us to see 20. It is what it is. 1994 is not a normal low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Also been since February 6, 2010, since we have had 10" or better in a calendar day. The February 5-6, 2010 storm ended the longest streak of no double digit daily snowfall, or we'd really be in uncharted territory on that metric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: 2018 also was a two day thing but I'm pretty sure we eclipsed 12 inches. Maybe this is our year... This might a case of 2010 where the Mid-Atlantic needs 40 for us to see 20. It is what it is. 1994 is not a normal low track. Highest 2-day total since February 2010 is 10.7 inches, on December 16-17, 2020. March 20-21, 2018 saw 10.5 inches at the airport. Highest 3-day total is 11.0 inches, from December 16-18, 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 GFS, Canadian and ICON all look acceptable for Mon/Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Wouldn't be mad at this. Honestly we need this to amp up more. I'm still worried about suppression. Still won't know much until probably Sunday. It's only Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I’d rather be out of it early than in it early if history is any indication. Can only trended better if we aren’t in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro says what storm. Holds too much energy back in the SW ( I feel like it does this a lot) and allows the wave to get squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Took the wind right out of my sails. 10 days of mostly cold weather and no snow in sight. It even makes it get above freezing next Thursday without even needing the help of a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 11 minutes ago, TimB said: Took the wind right out of my sails. 10 days of mostly cold weather and no snow in sight. It even makes it get above freezing next Thursday without even needing the help of a cutter. Don't jump off the ledge yet. Still 3/4 days out from anything. Yeah the trends were terrible today with the risk of suppression, which makes sense. I'm sure it's gonna look totally different at 0z and 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Don't jump off the ledge yet. Still 3/4 days out from anything. Yeah the trends were terrible today with the risk of suppression, which makes sense. I'm sure it's gonna look totally different at 0z and 12z tomorrow. Meh, GEFS ensemble mean looked horrific. About 3” over the entire 16 days. That’s like 50% of climo for that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Pretty strong signal for a ridge beyond day 10. If next week doesn’t pan out we could be in dire straits by the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 11 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Don't jump off the ledge yet. Still 3/4 days out from anything. Yeah the trends were terrible today with the risk of suppression, which makes sense. I'm sure it's gonna look totally different at 0z and 12z tomorrow. That's about the only certainty you can get from 12z. Pretty much all solutions from medium impact snowfall to nothing. Glad I don't have to bet on this cause I don't know which way I'd go. 4 minutes ago, TimB said: Pretty strong signal for a ridge beyond day 10. If next week doesn’t pan out we could be in dire straits by the end of January. I wouldn't say dire straights. That might not be a super warm look, and signs the blocking wants to reload. I get your point though, by then we are entering the last 3rd of winter needing some big wins to hit climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 No precipitation after the 2 monster cutter rainstorms this week would be cruel. But it has been consistently shown as an option with the PV dropping in and suppressing the STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: That's about the only certainty you can get from 12z. Pretty much all solutions from medium impact snowfall to nothing. Glad I don't have to bet on this cause I don't know which way I'd go. I wouldn't say dire straights. That might not be a super warm look, and signs the blocking wants to reload. I get your point though, by then we are entering the last 3rd of winter needing some big wins to hit climo. I'd bet on suppression. That's some cold air coming in with the polar vortex. Eventually it will be our turn we just have to be patient and deal with a shit stretch of winter. I still think we atleast score a warning level storm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 10 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: That's about the only certainty you can get from 12z. Pretty much all solutions from medium impact snowfall to nothing. Glad I don't have to bet on this cause I don't know which way I'd go. I wouldn't say dire straights. That might not be a super warm look, and signs the blocking wants to reload. I get your point though, by then we are entering the last 3rd of winter needing some big wins to hit climo. February isn’t the best month to try and make up ground either, you’re battling climo as normals rise into the 40s by mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 8 minutes ago, dj3 said: No precipitation after the 2 monster cutter rainstorms this week would be cruel. But it has been consistently shown as an option with the PV dropping in and suppressing the STJ. Not saying it would be a shock, just that it’d be a real kick in the nuts. It’s really hard to get a win around here anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 13 minutes ago, TimB said: Not saying it would be a shock, just that it’d be a real kick in the nuts. It’s really hard to get a win around here anymore. It's a bad stretch I'm sure we've had some bad stretches in decades prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: It's a bad stretch I'm sure we've had some bad stretches in decades prior. Depends how you define bad stretches tbh. If this year ends up being less than 20” like last year, there’s only one time that’s happened back to back (the first 3 winters of the 1930s). So something no one here has lived through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, TimB said: Depends how you define bad stretches tbh. If this year ends up being less than 20” like last year, there’s only one time that’s happened back to back (the first 3 winters of the 1930s). So something no one here has lived through. But it's happened before is what I'm getting at. We could follow up a low year this year with 60 inches next year. I don't believe any of that nonsense that this is the norm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Rd9108 said: But it's happened before is what I'm getting at. We could follow up a low year this year with 60 inches next year. I don't believe any of that nonsense that this is the norm now. I mean logically, no, I don’t believe sub-20” winters have suddenly become the norm when we just had close to 60” a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 That said, the day will come in just 7 short years when last winter replaces 92-93 in the normals and this winter replaces 93-94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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