RVASnowLover Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: GFS 12z definitely coming in south...it looks like a couple runs ago Major suppression but at least wouldn't have to worry about mixing. Suppression is a concern given the strong hi pressure 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 They gotta be panicking on the main thread lol. I don't trust the GFS at all at this far out and it's not just that I'm just making this up. If you go back and look at the last couple weeks I've been saying it. This winter season and last season, the European model has just absolutely crushed every other model and until that changes I will absolutely ride Euro-no matter what it does as we get towards the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: They gotta be panicking on the main thread lol. I don't trust the GFS at all at this far out and it's not just that I'm just making this up. If you go back and look at the last couple weeks I've been saying it. This winter season and last season, the European model has just absolutely crushed every other model and until that changes I will absolutely ride Euro-no matter what it does as we get towards the weekend. Unfortunately, the GFS is a terrible model. It's still in its lost phase with this system. CMC is a lot better but it was way north yesterday. See what UK and Euro show 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 as much as the GFS was suppressed, I’m glad we didn’t have a significant N shift 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GEFS still looks good. UK looked good too except for HR...lots of sleet verbatim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: GEFS still looks good. UK looked good too except for HR...lots of sleet verbatim Compromise between GFS and UKMET/CMC would be ideal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: Compromise between GFS and UKMET/CMC would be ideal GFS usually comes around closer to gametime 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Euro holds and crushes everyone 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I just wish it was Thursday. I just can't stand the pit in my stomach where RVA, and Short Pump, are in the crosshairs this far out. Shoot, I am 55, I should not be worrying about this stuff, but weenieism knows no age limit. I feel like the TV mets have been burned enough that they are tempering as well, Frieden "snow likely, major possible" same Zach D and Matty D., very careful in their messaging. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 11 minutes ago, JB Fins said: I just wish it was Thursday. I just can't stand the pit in my stomach where RVA, and Short Pump, are in the crosshairs this far out. Shoot, I am 55, I should not be worrying about this stuff, but weenieism knows no age limit. I feel like the TV mets have been burned enough that they are tempering as well, Frieden "snow likely, major possible" same Zach D and Matty D., very careful in their messaging. Going to be a long week of tracking. A lot can change between now and Saturday. I would be cautious too. We don't get snow events like this much anymore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Safe to say we are in a good spot at moment 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 AIFS even better some with 30+ inches 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORFDawg2013 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 6 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Safe to say we are in a good spot at moment Do you have this in the bar graph format for ORF and RIC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 10 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Do you have this in the bar graph format for ORF and RIC? no, I just copied and pasted it from the main thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 this is the national blend of all models, pretty awesome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 40 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: this is the national blend of all models, pretty awesome That is wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Yep, sign me up for that, then some cold so it sticks around, and I won't care what it does the rest of the season, I will have had my fix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GFS continues to be all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GFS WAY BETTER this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORFDawg2013 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 12 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: GFS continues to be all over the place We go over to sleet on the Southside towards the end according to the 18z GFS. Still a nice front thump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Happy hour GFS will come through big time. Verbatim it snows for about 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, chris624wx said: We go over to sleet on the Southside towards the end according to the 18z GFS. Still a nice front thump! Yes towards the end but that’s after dumping possibly 2’ of snow…again verbatim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORFDawg2013 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, chris624wx said: We go over to sleet on the Southside towards the end according to the 18z GFS. Still a nice front thump! And then another burst of snow as the low departs so this run would be a crunchy mess by the end! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 No, I am not buying the GFS. Not after what it showed at 12z. Need to see consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 31 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: GFS continues to be all over the place I really think the European model had to have a little discussion with the GFS if you know what I mean. So now it came into line this time it needs to continue to come into line with King euro lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 25 minutes ago, chris624wx said: And then another burst of snow as the low departs so this run would be a crunchy mess by the end! I think this stays as all snow for RIC 20+. For here in south Newport News an ORF this reminds me of the 2nd storm in late Jan 1966. That was an amazing 2 week period. Storm 1 happened around 25jan and i got a foot with thundersnow. 4 days later storm 2 came along and it started as heavy snow, went to sleet and changed back to snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, ldub23 said: I think this stays as all snow for RIC 20+. For here in south Newport News an ORF this reminds me of the 2nd storm in late Jan 1966. That was an amazing 2 week period. Storm 1 happened around 25jan and i got a foot with thundersnow. 4 days later storm 2 came along and it started as heavy snow, went to sleet and changed back to snow. 8 inches here with bitter cold afterward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GEFS looked good…obviously 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 This ORF for jan 1966. More mixing for storm 2 than i had. 2nd to right is the snow accu 1966-01-25 32 28 30.0 -11.8 35 0 T T 0 1966-01-26 33 27 30.0 -11.8 35 0 1.34 7.1 2 1966-01-27 35 25 30.0 -11.9 35 0 0.24 2.3 9 1966-01-28 33 19 26.0 -15.9 39 0 0.00 0.0 8 1966-01-29 33 18 25.5 -16.5 39 0 0.96 4.6 8 1966-01-30 24 12 18.0 -24.1 47 0 0.06 0.2 8 1966-01-31 31 10 20.5 -21.7 44 0 0.00 0.0 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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