RIC Airport Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 9 hours ago, Conway7305 said: 18z ECMWF Ensembles are a big improvement with trough placement further east on 13th leading up to event on 17th. 00z Euro was a nice hit. It's too bad it was at the end of the run, and we know there will be fluctuations in the days ahead. Heck, 12Z could have it back west again. Verbatim, surface temperatures remain below freezing at Richmond for the entire event. Starts as +SN, but as you can see by hour 216, the model shows a mix as the 850mb temps begin to rise and probably get above 0C for a time from about Farmville to about Tappahannock, which are the typical areas that tend to mix in the height of the bigger storms. Afterwards, there is a return to snow on the back side of the storm including coastal areas. EPS overall wasn't that impressive, but there are a couple members with more southern solutions that crushed Norfolk. There were only 4 members that gave Richmond over 6" of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 00z Euro was a nice hit. It's too bad it was at the end of the run, and we know there will be fluctuations in the days ahead. Heck, 12Z could have it back west again. Verbatim, surface temperatures remain below freezing at Richmond for the entire event. Starts as +SN, but as you can see by hour 216, the model shows a mix as the 850mb temps begin to rise and probably get above 0C for a time from about Farmville to about Tappahannock, which are the typical areas that tend to mix in the height of the bigger storms. Afterwards, there is a return to snow on the back side of the storm including coastal areas. EPS overall wasn't that impressive, but there are a couple members with more southern solutions that crushed Norfolk. There were only 4 members that gave Richmond over 6" of snow. GFS now showing a lack of cold air now for that system. Do you think we still have a chance to get the needed cold air? What has to happen? Or maybe the better question is what should I be looking for? @RIC Airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 24 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: GFS now showing a lack of cold air now for that system. Do you think we still have a chance to get the needed cold air? What has to happen? Or maybe the better question is what should I be looking for? @RIC Airport I'm no pro, but I like the ridge out west and the -NAO block. But, the cold delivery will depend on the placement of the polar vortex lobe that trails next weekend's cutter. We need that in the area where the Euro shows, even more south and east for an even colder outcome, as it could be a 50/50 feature to keep cold entrenched east of the mountains as the storm approaches. We don't want it too far south because it'll end up surpressing the storm south of us. There has been a lot of flexibility in the models on where each feature ends up, which is frustrating. More southern solutions are a possibility. Looking at the EPS charts I posted earlier, these two members gave Norfolk 15" and 10", respectively. You can see how far south these are and how NC even gets a lot of snow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 In the immediate we need to look out for possible spin-ups along that Squall line tomorrow evening. Not so sure about the winds even at the vulnerable Coastal locations but some widespread severe may be possible. Interested to see what happens down south later today. The once modeled widespread Heavy Rain event looks more like some showers during the day then a concentrated Squall line to finish it off. I don't think our locales will have any issues with Urban Street flooding. Severe is something to watch for sure. Great job @Ric Airport chasing down possible winter scenarios for the region. Always a nice read. Thank you for that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 4 hours ago, Stormpc said: In the immediate we need to look out for possible spin-ups along that Squall line tomorrow evening. Not so sure about the winds even at the vulnerable Coastal locations but some widespread severe may be possible. Interested to see what happens down south later today. The once modeled widespread Heavy Rain event looks more like some showers during the day then a concentrated Squall line to finish it off. I don't think our locales will have any issues with Urban Street flooding. Severe is something to watch for sure. Great job @Ric Airport chasing down possible winter scenarios for the region. Always a nice read. Thank you for that. From what I can glean, the 12Z HRRR and 3K NAM had tomorrow’s rain arriving between 6 am and 8 am, with it being off and on and steady in spots from its onset. Wind gusts also increase to 20-30mph after sunrise but will start exceeding 40mph and approach 60mph, especially along the coast. As the squall line approaches, higher gusts could be embedded in storm cells. The squall line looks to enter our region between 5 pm and 1 am. 12Z HRRR had an earlier arrival, and NAM a bit later. The 3K NAM was aggressive with the winds showing widespread 60-75mph even for places west of Richmond. I'm unsure if winds that high will couple down to the surface though. HRRR wasn't as high as it had generally 40-50mph inland and 50-60mph along the immediate coastal areas. Nonetheless, it looks like tomorrow afternoon and evening will be windy. With respect to severe, SPC has a marginal risk up to about RIC. Although the risk of tornadoes isn't 0% for east-central and SE VA, the highest risk for tornadoes looks to be interior Eastern NC along and east of I-95. That is where I am seeing the highest surface CAPE (> 500 J/kg) and SCI values on the NAM. Unfortunately, I am not versed on tracking severe so I will defer to others to bail me out. I am more of a winter guy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 The 12Z GEFS still showed a signal for a decent event around the 16th to 17th. Curious to see what the Euro and EPS does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Im out till the NWS has snow in its 7 day forecast. Might till 2025 lol Nothing and now the consensus is at the end of the run it warms up so now we have to wait till feb for the pattern change while the seasonal warmup begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 FWIW, 12Z EPS outputs for RIC and ORF. Definitely a step back from 00z. Afternoon runs as a whole did not increase confidence. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 This seems so much like last seasons snowless winter. A 2-3 day cold spell followed by warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 7 hours ago, RIC Airport said: The 12Z GEFS still showed a signal for a decent event around the 16th to 17th. Curious to see what the Euro and EPS does. I know we are tired of looking at these maps with no result. But, FYI, there was a slight uptick with the 18z GEFS snowfall mean compared to the 12Z run. The 16th-17th and then around the 20th is where you see the upticks when looking at the individual members. We are ways out, so much can still change. Keep the faith. Winter is far from over. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6z GFS promising for midweek next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 36 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 6z GFS promising for midweek next week. Last night's EPS also werent bad, certainly an improvement from yesterday's 12Z EPS. A handful of decent hits. I would not rely on a single scenario right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 37 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 6z GFS promising for midweek next week. Unfortunately, todays 6z GEFS were not as great as the previous 4 runs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 16 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Last night's EPS also werent bad, certainly an improvement from yesterday's 12Z EPS. A handful of decent hits. I would not rely on a single scenario right now. Thank you! For sure not counting on, just saying it was encouraging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 A lot harder to get snow down my way so I don't even bother looking that far until I see a cold pattern established in the east. Richmond and West can LUCK into certain events but not for us down in the Tidewater or outer banks. We need a hefty Continental snow pack and established cold with Southern stream riding underneath us to hope to grasp anything. Let's see how the deck is shuffled after these two cutter bombs clear. Anyway it might be an active day. Be safe out there. Check in later if anything interesting is happening. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 More cold overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 3 hours ago, Stormpc said: A lot harder to get snow down my way so I don't even bother looking that far until I see a cold pattern established in the east. Richmond and West can LUCK into certain events but not for us down in the Tidewater or outer banks. We need a hefty Continental snow pack and established cold with Southern stream riding underneath us to hope to grasp anything. Let's see how the deck is shuffled after these two cutter bombs clear. Anyway it might be an active day. Be safe out there. Check in later if anything interesting is happening. I agree with this, and hopefully we all, including NE NC, can cash in soon. 12Z GFS, at least verbatim, liked SE VA and NE NC. Steadier rains off and on into the Richmond area, but nothing too crazy yet. Certainly the higher winds have yet to arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: More cold overall Our area is still in the game for snow, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Wind is verifying. And the short term models swing a squall line through around 7pm. Could get ugly. Hopefully once this cutter swings through some snow threats show themselves next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 That line looks very active as it approaches. Lots of activity over SW VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 there are a lot more hits for our area on the 12z EURO Ensemble members. Trends are nice so far. Still have a ways to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 I was just looking at the EPS, some good hits and the mean is among the highest we've seen. Charts are still processing but I'll post everything within the hour. Definitely encouraging. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 Here are the 12Z EPS snowfall outputs. Definitely a handful of big hits. E-11, 14, and 32 were the snowiest members for the January 16th-17th period, especially for Richmond. Sharing the individual member snow maps for your enjoyment! Lets hope the EPS improves and the GFS/GEFS get on board in the coming days. For our entire region, including all of SE VA and NE NC, E-22 and E-47 were the snowiest from what seems to be another threat around the 20th-21st. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 27 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Here are the 12Z EPS snowfall outputs. Definitely a handful of big hits. E-11, 14, and 32 were the snowiest members for the January 16th-17th period, especially for Richmond. Sharing the individual member snow maps for your enjoyment! Lets hope the EPS improves and the GFS/GEFS get on board in the coming days. For our entire region, including all of SE VA and NE NC, E-22 and E-47 were the snowiest from what seems to be another threat around the 20th-21st. Getting better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 Getting into the thick of it. Flash Flood Warning now. And there is a Tornado south of Petersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 On 1/9/2024 at 6:16 PM, mikeeng92 said: Power outages are starting to add up. KRIC is officially up to 1.53" of rain through 7pm and counting. The daily rainfall record was 1.41" set back in 1932. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Was a good storm, gusts over 50 with power flashes. And the roar of the wind was really something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 3 hours ago, ldub23 said: Getting better The 18Z GEFS mean was a step back from 12Z, but it still has an accumulating snow signal for the 16-17th and around the 20-21st. Hopefully, the 12z's numbers are closer to reality. The 18Z operational run was unremarkable. 12Z GEFS MEAN 18Z GEFS MEAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Soon it will be February. Hard to believe we will have 1000+days without an inch of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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