Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[mikeeng92]

GFS is beautiful 

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Nam has some nice banding late coming through.. definitely need a stall and early development to get into the warning area into Richmond .

Of course it's predicated totally on the heavier bands falling after dark. The reason why I think we get several inches of snow and not just one or two is because I think a lot of the models are now showing that pinwheel effect still over RVA when the storm starts really winding up. So I really feel we could get 5 inches in spots if that happens, and on eastern parts of the area up to 7 inches but we shall see obviously

[Inudaw]

Ultimately think surface temps will be the ultimate issue for Richmond for most of this.    Not sure if the cab can cool surface enough for a good storm for the metro. 

[jlewis1111]

Can someone post the 12z GFS snow map please

[jlewis1111]

2 hours ago, mikeeng92 said:

GFS is beautiful 

do you have the clown map ?

[ORFDawg2013]

3 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

Can someone post the 12z GFS snow map please

[wasnow215]

Euro was much better too if somebody wants to post that map! Talking about it on the main thread

[ldub23]

2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Euro was much better too if somebody wants to post that map! Talking about it on the main thread

It wallops RIC

[jlewis1111]

Id take 2-4 inches here in midlothian on the grass

[wasnow215]

1 minute ago, ldub23 said:

It wallops RIC

I need to take my phone to Verizon because I used to be able to post maps easily and now I can't I always feel like I have to rely on people sorry about that folks. But I need y'all again ha ha

[wasnow215]

Just now, jlewis1111 said:

Id take 2-4 inches here in midlothian on the grass

After dark with rates could stick to some roads or at least slushy

[ldub23]

1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

I need to take my phone to Verizon because I used to be able to post maps easily and now I can't I always feel like I have to rely on people sorry about that folks. But I need y'all again ha ha

Everytime  i try to post a  map it shows  up as a tiny box

[ORFDawg2013]

6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I need to take my phone to Verizon because I used to be able to post maps easily and now I can't I always feel like I have to rely on people sorry about that folks. But I need y'all again ha ha

I don't subscribe to any of the model sites so I just have to hope other people post our region. Wasn't an issue in the last storm since NC was in on it, but the other MA folks don't throw us a bone.

[D-Money]

Euro

[wasnow215]

So close to warning snow!

[ldub23]

4 minutes ago, D-Money said:

Euro

Another tough one for  wakefield. Warnings? Advisories? or the dreaded Hazardous WX  outlook

[ldub23]

Just now, wasnow215 said:

So close to warning snow!

So close  in South NN  i can see the warning snow, lol

[D-Money]

GFS

 

[wasnow215]

2 minutes ago, D-Money said:

GFS

 

I think 4-10 is the window to get good rates

[ldub23]

2 minutes ago, D-Money said:

GFS

 

A period  of  very  heavy wet snow. I  have a feeling wakefield will be  conservative this time after the  last storm bust then play catch-up if they need to tomorrow.

[Stormpc]

4 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

A period  of  very  heavy wet snow. I  have a feeling wakefield will be  conservative this time after the  last storm bust then play catch-up if they need to tomorrow.

I agree. I could see spots along the peninsulas on the East sides over toward the eastern shore of Virginia getting into warning snows easily. You are on the edge of all guidance but trending. I may even see a wet flake or two.

[mikeeng92]

[wasnow215]

9 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

A period  of  very  heavy wet snow. I  have a feeling wakefield will be  conservative this time after the  last storm bust then play catch-up if they need to tomorrow.

Do you mean the bust a couple Fridays ago when they had less than an inch of snow and I got almost 4 inches in west Central Chesterfield 23120?

[ldub23]

Just now, wasnow215 said:

Do you mean the bust a couple Fridays ago when they had less than an inch of snow and I got almost 4 inches in west Central Chesterfield 23120?

Where they were talking  about  blizzard warnings for SEVA and even right  up to the snow starting they somehow  had  3-7 for the  Peninsula.

[wasnow215]

1 minute ago, ldub23 said:

Where they were talking  about  blizzard warnings for SEVA and even right  up to the snow starting they somehow  had  3-7 for the  Peninsula.

You guys definitely were forecasted even the models had you in the good snows. The suppression was epic unfortunately.

[ldub23]

2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

You guys definitely were forecasted even the models had you in the good snows. The suppression was epic unfortunately.

Luckily, Currituck did  cash in!!

[D-Money]

1 hour ago, Inudaw said:

Ultimately think surface temps will be the ultimate issue for Richmond for most of this.    Not sure if the cab can cool surface enough for a good storm for the metro. 

On the 12z GFS surface temps for our area dip to 33-34 degrees under heavy rates. The storm is generating its own cold air by dragging down colder air aloft. It is the issue, as we really don’t have a true cold air source, so high bust potential if you take snow maps literal. It all comes down to where banding sets up or heavy rates occur. 

[Stormpc]

20 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

You guys definitely were forecasted even the models had you in the good snows. The suppression was epic unfortunately.

They really classic big ones always throw a few surprises along the way. Let's see how far back to the Southwest the deform band can get. Will there be more movement west and south with the low? Can it bomb quicker? There's still time for adjustments.

[mikeeng92]

Long range HRRR but this would be LEGIT

[ldub23]

They extended a storm watch for all the  Peninsula. Just  few  miles east on the eastern shore a  blizzard warning and across the JR a hazardous  outlook. My best guess  is they will extend things a  little south and west tomorrow.