Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[D-Money]

46 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

06Z NAM  says  its SEVA'S turn to hit the  jackpot. 24-30 inches for  Peninsula and southside 

Kuchera 

[eaglesin2011]

Would be one hell of way to end the season but as always, most of us are right on that line of rain /snow mix …Also, this time the roads have all warmed up… Tonight’s runs will be key….

Best case is we get more precip overnight Sunday..

being  on the boarder-line usually dosnt end well around here…will see soon enough ..

 

[JB Fins]

Would love to to cap this winter this way, however, thinking it ends up like it did for those guys in the pic.

[eaglesin2011]

I think our over a foot snow chance just got lost  with this current rain storm.. Can you imagine how much snow this would have been? ..Lol 

[ORFDawg2013]

2 hours ago, D-Money said:

Kuchera 

Do not feel good hugging the NAM at all. 6z GFS is a total shut out for us down here

[mikeeng92]

Out of all the way RVA misses out on snow , this potential way is the most painful to me, being just too far west. 

[D-Money]

1 hour ago, ORFDawg2013 said:

Do not feel good hugging the NAM at all. 6z GFS is a total shut out for us down here

The reality is that models will start to reduce totals and consolidate more, probably north of us. For a fun event we need to see a 0z or 6z Nam nuke. Surface temperatures are marginal at best and soil temps are bad. Need that 2+ inch an hour rates to dump a nice wet concrete base, then build on top that when rates decrease. Expectations are white rain for now. 

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, D-Money said:

The reality is that models will start to reduce totals and consolidate more, probably north of us. For a fun event we need to see a 0z or 6z Nam nuke. Surface temperatures are marginal at best and soil temps are bad. Need that 2+ inch an hour rates to dump a nice wet concrete base, then build on top that when rates decrease. Expectations are white rain for now. 

This is ON THE MONEY! (sorry haha)

Any snow during daytime hours at 34-37° will be "white rain" in RVA, south and east.

Winds could be interesting tho, and if wet snow gathers on trees and power lines it will be an issue. 

[mikeeng92]

If it’s snowing it’s cause of heavy precipitation and it will accumulate. Except for roads 

[wasnow215]

7 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said:

If it’s snowing it’s cause of heavy precipitation and it will accumulate. Except for roads 

Some of our higher totals on the models -GFS mainly-are only showing about 1/4 of those 10:1 or Kuchera totals on "snow depth", which no one ever shows on the maps on any thread lol, but really is the only thing that matters.

For good accumulations, we need this thing to not get going until after like 2-3pm and THEN go 12 hours with good rates for several hours or at least a few hours.

[wasnow215]

Canadian is terrible -except for the Jersey Shore

[eaglesin2011]

[eaglesin2011]

Seems about right for our area at this time..  As we watch the Nor’easter form right over us.lol

[ldub23]

Euro is an improvement for  eastern VA

[ORFDawg2013]

2 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Euro is an improvement for  eastern VA

[ORFDawg2013]

[eaglesin2011]

Still allot of white rain for most of the area especially with the surface temps

[RVASnowLover]

Going to need great rates to overcome marginal temps

[ldub23]

28 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

Going to need great rates to overcome marginal temps

Im just hoping for an inch of slush. Anything more will be a  bonus

[mikeeng92]

We need the storm tucked in just offshore of Delmarva to maximize potential with a deform band, like in 2016.  GEFS has this.

[mikeeng92]

NAMed!

[D-Money]

NAMs kuchera 

[ORFDawg2013]

Latest from Wakefield

Quote

KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong coastal low pressure likely impacts the
region Sunday into early Monday resulting in the potential for
accumulating snow along with hazardous marine conditions.

A strong upper trough dives SE through the Midwest Saturday
night and digs into the Mid-South and Carolinas Sunday, before
becoming a closed low off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night.
Strong surface low pressure quickly develops off the coast later
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Confidence has increased.
However, there are some differences in the deterministic models
and ensemble spread with regard to how close the low develops to
the coast. This casts some uncertainty with sensible weather
impacts, especially where the heaviest snow band sets up Sunday
night/early Monday and how much accumulating snow falls across
primarily NE portions of the local area. The 20/12Z GFS/GEFS
remain on the higher end of the guidance and are overall more
amplified and push accumulating snow much farther W/SW into
central VA. 12z EPS probs for >3" (10:1 SLR) of snow are
generally 70-90% from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore,
with the CMC GEPS 50-80%. For >6" probs, the EPS is mainly 40-
60% from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore, with the GEPS
similar but primarily on the Eastern Shore. Of note, there was a
westward shift and increase in the EPS probs. The 12z EPS 50th
percentile is 4-5" the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore, with
the GEPS similar for the Northern Neck and 5-7" for the Eastern
Shore. With the westward shift in the EPS, a 3-4" median shifts
into the northern portion of the I-95 corridor.

All these probs assume a 10:1 SLR and accumulate snow as soon
as the model changes precipitation to snow. The heaviest
precipitation likely occurs Sunday evening into the early
overnight hours, and this is when cold air is initially pulled
into the system changing rain to snow. This will limit some
accumulation at the onset with snow falling on relatively warm
and wet ground. SLRs were nudged down to ~8:1 for this period,
and then gradually trend upward as colder air is pulled into the
storm. The latest forecast has 4-5" over SE MD, 2-3" from the
Northern Neck to the VA Eastern Shore, and 0.5-2" back into
central VA, and 0.5" or less elsewhere. Snow could accumulate on
roads where snowfall rates and amounts are higher and
accumulation will mainly be on the grass and elevated surfaces
where rates/amounts are lower. With an event like this, it is
possible or even likely that we see a sharp cut-off from several
inches of snow to little to no snow. A Winter Storm Watch will
not be issued at this time given enough uncertainty on exact
details, and that the event is still beyond 48 hours. In
addition rain and snow, strong gusty winds are likely,
especially along the coast.

 

[EverythingisEverything]

3 minutes ago, ORFDawg2013 said:

Latest from Wakefield

 

Mum on Hampton Roads?

[ORFDawg2013]

5 minutes ago, EverythingisEverything said:

Mum on Hampton Roads?

yeah, I guess we're "elsewhere?"...........

[wasnow215]

13 minutes ago, ORFDawg2013 said:

Latest from Wakefield

 

Can you sum this up for RVA? Driving home from work lol

[wasnow215]

If they are talking about accumulations the only way that's gonna happen for anybody south of Stafford County Virginia as if we get incredible rates after dark. And the temperatures have to drop to at least 31° or 32° during those incredible rates. Other than that it's white rain and milk toast 

[jlewis1111]

[mikeeng92]

If something like this verifies , with the upper low dynamics I think we will pile up snow quick regardless of daytime (except for roads). Depends where the bands set up. It won’t be any crazy amounts but should be a fun storm. 

[jlewis1111]

could see 4-8 in ric