Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[D-Money]

46 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

06Z NAM  says  its SEVA'S turn to hit the  jackpot. 24-30 inches for  Peninsula and southside 

Kuchera 

[eaglesin2011]

Would be one hell of way to end the season but as always, most of us are right on that line of rain /snow mix …Also, this time the roads have all warmed up… Tonight’s runs will be key….

Best case is we get more precip overnight Sunday..

being  on the boarder-line usually dosnt end well around here…will see soon enough ..

 

[JB Fins]

Would love to to cap this winter this way, however, thinking it ends up like it did for those guys in the pic.

[eaglesin2011]

I think our over a foot snow chance just got lost  with this current rain storm.. Can you imagine how much snow this would have been? ..Lol 

[ORFDawg2013]

2 hours ago, D-Money said:

Kuchera 

Do not feel good hugging the NAM at all. 6z GFS is a total shut out for us down here

[mikeeng92]

Out of all the way RVA misses out on snow , this potential way is the most painful to me, being just too far west. 

[D-Money]

1 hour ago, ORFDawg2013 said:

Do not feel good hugging the NAM at all. 6z GFS is a total shut out for us down here

The reality is that models will start to reduce totals and consolidate more, probably north of us. For a fun event we need to see a 0z or 6z Nam nuke. Surface temperatures are marginal at best and soil temps are bad. Need that 2+ inch an hour rates to dump a nice wet concrete base, then build on top that when rates decrease. Expectations are white rain for now. 

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, D-Money said:

The reality is that models will start to reduce totals and consolidate more, probably north of us. For a fun event we need to see a 0z or 6z Nam nuke. Surface temperatures are marginal at best and soil temps are bad. Need that 2+ inch an hour rates to dump a nice wet concrete base, then build on top that when rates decrease. Expectations are white rain for now. 

This is ON THE MONEY! (sorry haha)

Any snow during daytime hours at 34-37° will be "white rain" in RVA, south and east.

Winds could be interesting tho, and if wet snow gathers on trees and power lines it will be an issue. 

[mikeeng92]

If it’s snowing it’s cause of heavy precipitation and it will accumulate. Except for roads 

[wasnow215]

7 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said:

If it’s snowing it’s cause of heavy precipitation and it will accumulate. Except for roads 

Some of our higher totals on the models -GFS mainly-are only showing about 1/4 of those 10:1 or Kuchera totals on "snow depth", which no one ever shows on the maps on any thread lol, but really is the only thing that matters.

For good accumulations, we need this thing to not get going until after like 2-3pm and THEN go 12 hours with good rates for several hours or at least a few hours.

[wasnow215]

Canadian is terrible -except for the Jersey Shore

[eaglesin2011]

[eaglesin2011]

Seems about right for our area at this time..  As we watch the Nor’easter form right over us.lol

[ldub23]

Euro is an improvement for  eastern VA

[ORFDawg2013]

2 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Euro is an improvement for  eastern VA

[ORFDawg2013]

[eaglesin2011]

Still allot of white rain for most of the area especially with the surface temps

[RVASnowLover]

Going to need great rates to overcome marginal temps

[ldub23]

28 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

Going to need great rates to overcome marginal temps

Im just hoping for an inch of slush. Anything more will be a  bonus

[mikeeng92]

We need the storm tucked in just offshore of Delmarva to maximize potential with a deform band, like in 2016.  GEFS has this.