Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[benjammin]

Light flurries in Lynchburg.

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[Stormpc]

About ready to start here in Currituck.  Got dark and ceiling is fuzzy. North winds need to turn NE and inject some Atlantic moisture. 

[jlewis1111]

Flurries in Midlo

[D-Money]

HRDPS shows a brand setting up from Edenton - Hertford - Elizabeth city - currituck to knots island. These areas should see accumulations. 

[Ephesians2]

57 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Does anyone know if that snow is reaching the ground in Lynchburg and Chatham and Halifax?

yeah, but just barely. it's actually been snowing at incredibly slow rates since about 7:00 this morning. Only a dusting though, it's just been that dry.

[D-Money]

Latest RAP Crap

decent hit for southside and NE NC 

[ldub23]

More  useless  misery  coming. I dont think we will ever  waste a  pattern so perfect again

 

[Stormpc]

HRRRRRR also likes the south side and Northeast North carolina.

[wasnow215]

I just wanna add an inch to the winter totals lol. See it blow around in the big gusts. That's all I'm asking for with this one 

[Stormpc]

First flurries reported in currituck. 24°. 

[Stormpc]

Just now, wasnow215 said:

I just wanna add an inch to the winter totals lol. See it blow around in the big gusts. That's all I'm asking for with this one 

I don't have anything to report this winter except for a coating that happened one evening. So I am yet to get on the board

[jlewis1111]

The radar is playing tricks on me. Looks like it should be snowing by the radar but the sun is peaking thru the clouds lol

[D-Money]

5 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

First flurries reported in currituck. 24°. 

Radar is indicating dry layers are becoming saturated. Donut hole is reducing now. 

[ldub23]

5 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

I don't have anything to report this winter except for a coating that happened one evening. So I am yet to get on the board

I am pulling for you

[ldub23]

HRRR gives  Currituck 6-8 very  nice

[VARTV]

Wakefield dropping warnings for WWAs, lowering snow totals... again...

[Stormpc]

8 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

HRRR gives  Currituck 6-8 very  nice

If that comes together that will be fine. It won't be too hard to clear. We'll see. Snow growth is terrible right now. Flurries have stopped!

[ldub23]

14 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

If that comes together that will be fine. It won't be too hard to clear. We'll see. Snow growth is terrible right now. Flurries have stopped!

Heavy  snow  on radar  headed your way

[Rsheely88]

No idea what Wakefield is seeing maybe Synoptics??

-- Changed Discussion --
As of 935 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong winter storm impacts the region today.
Significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and drifting snow
due to strong winds, coastal flooding, and major marine impacts
are expected. The highest confidence is across south and
southeastern portions of the area. There will be a very sharp
gradient in total snowfall amounts, southeast of the US-360
corridor.

Made significant adjustments to the forecast this morning after
reviewing current conditions/radar trends and the 6/12z model
guidance. Snowfall amounts have been lowered for much of the
western and northwestern half of the area. Winter Storm Warnings
have been replaced with Winter Storm Advisories across south
central VA as well as western Tidewater/western Hampton Roads.

First, there is a ton of dry air to our north and northwest.
Currently at AKQ (Wakefield), the dewpoint is 3F and at OFP
(Ashland) it is -2F. Any precipitation will need to overcome
this dry, Arctic airmass. Also believe we may be trying to
downslope the incredibly dry and cold air, located over the Ohio
Valley, across the Appalachians and Blue Ridge...further drying
out the local airmass. The latest 12z high-res model guidance
is also significantly drier, especially north/northwest, with
certain solutions even struggling to bring much more than an
inch past the VA/NC border. Still think there will be a decent
snowfall 4-8"+ for many areas across southside Hampton Roads
into our northeastern North Carolina counties. There may even be
a "jackpot" of 5-10"+ from far southern Virginia Beach down
into Currituck County, NC. Northwest of these locations, there
will be a very sharp gradient in snow amounts, and it is not out
of the realm of possibilities that places such as Wakefield and
Williamsburg (and northwest) may not see much more than a
dusting. Didn`t go quite this low with the forecast, but would
not be shocked. Thought about canceling the far northern tier
of Winter Weather Advisories, but we are concerned that even a
dusting of snow combined with the very cold temperatures could
result in travel impacts.


.

[wasnow215]

Looks like not only do you have to be south but you have to be east also, because it is showing snow in Petersburg but no snow here in 23120 by Magnolia Green.

[D-Money]

Latest cRAP

[ldub23]

12 minutes ago, D-Money said:

Latest cRAP

Sweet. 

[ldub23]

18 minutes ago, Rsheely88 said:

No idea what Wakefield is seeing maybe Synoptics??

-- Changed Discussion --
As of 935 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong winter storm impacts the region today.
Significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and drifting snow
due to strong winds, coastal flooding, and major marine impacts
are expected. The highest confidence is across south and
southeastern portions of the area. There will be a very sharp
gradient in total snowfall amounts, southeast of the US-360
corridor.

Made significant adjustments to the forecast this morning after
reviewing current conditions/radar trends and the 6/12z model
guidance. Snowfall amounts have been lowered for much of the
western and northwestern half of the area. Winter Storm Warnings
have been replaced with Winter Storm Advisories across south
central VA as well as western Tidewater/western Hampton Roads.

First, there is a ton of dry air to our north and northwest.
Currently at AKQ (Wakefield), the dewpoint is 3F and at OFP
(Ashland) it is -2F. Any precipitation will need to overcome
this dry, Arctic airmass. Also believe we may be trying to
downslope the incredibly dry and cold air, located over the Ohio
Valley, across the Appalachians and Blue Ridge...further drying
out the local airmass. The latest 12z high-res model guidance
is also significantly drier, especially north/northwest, with
certain solutions even struggling to bring much more than an
inch past the VA/NC border. Still think there will be a decent
snowfall 4-8"+ for many areas across southside Hampton Roads
into our northeastern North Carolina counties. There may even be
a "jackpot" of 5-10"+ from far southern Virginia Beach down
into Currituck County, NC. Northwest of these locations, there
will be a very sharp gradient in snow amounts, and it is not out
of the realm of possibilities that places such as Wakefield and
Williamsburg (and northwest) may not see much more than a
dusting. Didn`t go quite this low with the forecast, but would
not be shocked. Thought about canceling the far northern tier
of Winter Weather Advisories, but we are concerned that even a
dusting of snow combined with the very cold temperatures could
result in travel impacts.


.

Maybe they saw that RAP and decided  to stay put. 

[Rsheely88]

Maybe they saw that RAP and decided  to stay put. 

Maybe but i thought the rap was not a reliable model?


.

[jlewis1111]

all models been such crap on this storm

[Rsheely88]

all models been such crap on this storm

That’s the truth…sad with the technology we have these days.


.

[ldub23]

4 minutes ago, Rsheely88 said:

Maybe but i thought the rap was not a reliable model?


.

Latest  RDPS and SREF look really  good  for southside

[ldub23]

[wasnow215]

SREF terrible model never verifies -maybe the "broken clock" theory can apply haha

[Stormpc]

Just now, ldub23 said:

Latest  RDPS and SREF look really  good  for southside

Thats all true. Let's see if we can get some ground truth. Radar is solid over me with little coming down. Having a hard time saturating with those North winds pulling the dry air down