Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[ldub23]

This  ORF for  jan 1966. More  mixing  for storm 2 than i had. 2nd to right  is the  snow accu

 

1966-01-25	32	28	30.0	-11.8	35	0	T	T	0
1966-01-26	33	27	30.0	-11.8	35	0	1.34	7.1	2
1966-01-27	35	25	30.0	-11.9	35	0	0.24	2.3	9
1966-01-28	33	19	26.0	-15.9	39	0	0.00	0.0	8
1966-01-29	33	18	25.5	-16.5	39	0	0.96	4.6	8
1966-01-30	24	12	18.0	-24.1	47	0	0.06	0.2	8
1966-01-31	31	10	20.5	-21.7	44	0	0.00	0.0	7

[mikeeng92]

Looks like the 18z Euro gets sleet into central Virginia but only after an absolute pounding. 

[RVASnowLover]

Yep, some mix at the end but the damage is pretty much done by then 

[RVASnowLover]

Still a great run but it phases more which brings more WAA 

[RVASnowLover]

would take this even if we mix some at the end 

[benjammin]

No more moves north for those south of 64. Otherwise, it will be a 6"+ snowfall plus several inches of sleet and maybe a touch of the nasty stuff.

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[RVASnowLover]

Will need see at 00z if this is a trend or a one off 

[ldub23]

Nothing good about the euro at  all. 2 more days  of this and  its  55 and rain

[Conway7305]

“Gotta smell the sleet to get the goods”….lol stole that line from NOVA forum.   We still do just as good as DC. 

[Conway7305]

1 minute ago, ldub23 said:

Nothing good about the euro at  all. 2 more days  of this and  its  55 and rain

EPS was still good for us.  Ensembles tell the story. The operational can flip around some.

[RVASnowLover]

2 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Nothing good about the euro at  all. 2 more days  of this and  its  55 and rain

Definitely concerning if you’re in ORF and southside. 

[RVASnowLover]

Just now, Conway7305 said:

EPS was still good for us.  Ensembles tell the story. The operational can flip around some.

The euro AI was still good too. Why I say need to see if this is start of a trend or just a bad run 

[migratingwx]

It’s probably a good idea to expect 4 to 8 inches of snow before any mixing occurs. The mixing signal we observe on the Euro model is hard to overlook, and in the past, warmer air has typically moved in quickly. The interesting question is whether RIC will receive 6.0 inches of snow, as that hasn’t happened since December 2018, even though ORF has experienced two or three such events since then.

[Conway7305]

18z AIFS  Ensembles 

Folks were still good 

 

[Conway7305]

A few runs ago the euro snuck in a little bit of sleet , but then backed it down again so I think it’s gonna waiver. 

[migratingwx]

1 minute ago, Conway7305 said:

18z AIFS  Ensembles 

Folks were still good

So much can still change when you're four days out, but there are warning signs that this may not be an all snow event. Not saying anything people don't already know, but something to keep in mind, especially if you are south of  CHO to an EZF line and certainly if you are on southside Hampton Roads, those areas are typically the most vulnerable to mixing during these events.

[ldub23]

8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

18z AIFS  Ensembles 

Folks were still good 

 

Thats worse. When the  heavy snow gets to DC that always  means the rain line moves  further NW in VA, Sunday will end  up 65 here, lol

[RVASnowLover]

Euro had sleet reaching close to Fredericksburg. The HP was weaker. Something to keep an eye on. Mixing seems likely though southside and into HR 

[ldub23]

Ukmet  has the  32 line  getting to RIC sunday morning. Its done

[migratingwx]

This is why you can't get too excited until you're about 48 hours out, which isn't until Thursday. Rooting for you all even though I no longer live there. 

[RVASnowLover]

EPS took a step back too. Hopefully not a trend but we’ll see 

[RVASnowLover]

Need the HP to be stronger. 

[Conway7305]

Here is 18z Ukmet

Image

[Conway7305]

Here is 18z EPS

[Rvarookie]

Looks like things are about to come back to reality. Still hopeful for solid storm before the sleet takes over like it always does 

[RVASnowLover]

Both of those are a bit of step back from 12z. See if it continues at 00z 

[migratingwx]

3 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Looks like things are about to come back to reality. Still hopeful for solid storm before the sleet takes over like it always does 

Lately, the only place that seems to get over 6" without any mixing is ORF. 

[RVASnowLover]

Hope I’m wrong but just have a bad feeling. We’ve seen this too many times before 

[clskinsfan]

Sorry to jump in from the NOVA forum. I am out in Winchester. Dont sweat the mixing too much. This is a really rare airmass we are going to be dealing with. CAD is all the way down to SC. Even if you mix all of you will get buried before the switch. This is going to be one historic storm for VA. Possibly the biggest ever as far as the number of counties hit. Crazy stuff. 

[SoCoWx]

Y’all all need to take a chill pill, respectfully.


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