mikeeng92 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Looks like the 18z Euro gets sleet into central Virginia but only after an absolute pounding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Yep, some mix at the end but the damage is pretty much done by then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Still a great run but it phases more which brings more WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 would take this even if we mix some at the end 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 No more moves north for those south of 64. Otherwise, it will be a 6"+ snowfall plus several inches of sleet and maybe a touch of the nasty stuff. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Will need see at 00z if this is a trend or a one off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Nothing good about the euro at all. 2 more days of this and its 55 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 “Gotta smell the sleet to get the goods”….lol stole that line from NOVA forum. We still do just as good as DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, ldub23 said: Nothing good about the euro at all. 2 more days of this and its 55 and rain EPS was still good for us. Ensembles tell the story. The operational can flip around some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Nothing good about the euro at all. 2 more days of this and its 55 and rain Definitely concerning if you’re in ORF and southside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Conway7305 said: EPS was still good for us. Ensembles tell the story. The operational can flip around some. The euro AI was still good too. Why I say need to see if this is start of a trend or just a bad run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
migratingwx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 It’s probably a good idea to expect 4 to 8 inches of snow before any mixing occurs. The mixing signal we observe on the Euro model is hard to overlook, and in the past, warmer air has typically moved in quickly. The interesting question is whether RIC will receive 6.0 inches of snow, as that hasn’t happened since December 2018, even though ORF has experienced two or three such events since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 18z AIFS Ensembles Folks were still good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 A few runs ago the euro snuck in a little bit of sleet , but then backed it down again so I think it’s gonna waiver. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
migratingwx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: 18z AIFS Ensembles Folks were still good So much can still change when you're four days out, but there are warning signs that this may not be an all snow event. Not saying anything people don't already know, but something to keep in mind, especially if you are south of CHO to an EZF line and certainly if you are on southside Hampton Roads, those areas are typically the most vulnerable to mixing during these events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 18z AIFS Ensembles Folks were still good Thats worse. When the heavy snow gets to DC that always means the rain line moves further NW in VA, Sunday will end up 65 here, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Euro had sleet reaching close to Fredericksburg. The HP was weaker. Something to keep an eye on. Mixing seems likely though southside and into HR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Ukmet has the 32 line getting to RIC sunday morning. Its done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
migratingwx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 This is why you can't get too excited until you're about 48 hours out, which isn't until Thursday. Rooting for you all even though I no longer live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 EPS took a step back too. Hopefully not a trend but we’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Need the HP to be stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Here is 18z Ukmet Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Here is 18z EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Looks like things are about to come back to reality. Still hopeful for solid storm before the sleet takes over like it always does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Both of those are a bit of step back from 12z. See if it continues at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
migratingwx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: Looks like things are about to come back to reality. Still hopeful for solid storm before the sleet takes over like it always does Lately, the only place that seems to get over 6" without any mixing is ORF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Hope I’m wrong but just have a bad feeling. We’ve seen this too many times before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Sorry to jump in from the NOVA forum. I am out in Winchester. Dont sweat the mixing too much. This is a really rare airmass we are going to be dealing with. CAD is all the way down to SC. Even if you mix all of you will get buried before the switch. This is going to be one historic storm for VA. Possibly the biggest ever as far as the number of counties hit. Crazy stuff. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Y’all all need to take a chill pill, respectfully.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 15 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: Looks like things are about to come back to reality. Still hopeful for solid storm before the sleet takes over like it always does If anyone really believed 24+ inches then they really are an RVA rookie .. lol Anything over 6+ with sleet is gonna be around here for awhile… 4-8 is just about a lock at this point anything more is a bonus imo… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now