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Texas/Oklahoma 2023 Obs and Discussion


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No posts but mine in 2 weeks, the severe weather of the last few days in severe threads.  Since there doesn't appear to be a way for the OP to rename the thread, and it has been a while, I'll start it now.  I do wonder if 2022 in a thread title helps people ignore it even when it is the newest in the subforum.  I'll try to add 2024 to the thread title in January.

 

  The ridge shifts around a bit, but heights at or above 588 decameters seems a constant state wide through the end of the month on the ensemble and exceeds 594 dm over much of the state much of the op run.  Most of the rain on the op model in Texas and Oklahoma fall in the next couple of days.

BiggusRidgeus.png

EstadoSeco.png

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The last half of May was pretty dry in my neck of the woods. I've been thankful for almost 7" rain over the last 10 days. Still could get some more through tomorrow. That will help get through the upcoming heat wave - provided the rain doesn't completely shut off for a prolonged period of time.

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Either 108F in Houston nest Tuesday is too warm, or rain cooled temps in the 80s around Austin and Dallas are just not happening.  I suspect both.  I tend to believe the 103F NWS FWD forecast for Euless.  Same temp for my house in Houston, which sounds more reasonable, per NWS HGX.  108F would break the monthly record.  103F is probably a daily record locally, DFW, I'm guessing in 1980 it was a lot higher than that.

BitToasty.png

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This "heat wave" is definitely looking to be a lot more messy for DFW and Oklahoma as a whole than what was depicted last week.

Still plenty of heat/humidity to be had (seasonably-speaking), but with the upper level low parked over the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley forcing the jet so far south, these areas will seemingly remain susceptible to convective episodes that will force the surface front further SW than what the global models show (thus keeping high temps and solar insolation in check).

The extreme stuff still appears to be a lock for SA / Austin and possibly Houston though.

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My weather station in Longview is reading a temp of 92F, DP of 81F (!), and heat index of 112F. It might be a degree or so high on the dewpoint but that's pretty crazy. You usually don't see that kind of dewpoint unless you're in the middle of an Iowa cornfield in July during a hot/wet year.

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It's kind of funny, really.

Last week, it was looking like DFW would be seeing days upon days of 100*F+ weather and sunny/dry conditions with no end in sight. There was so much hype about record-breaking oppressive heat.

Fast forward to today and not only has DFW yet to hit 100*F+, but it's only been "seasonably warm" and there's a good chance the first 100*F+ day may not even happen at all with this "heat wave" before it ends on Wednesday. Plus, much of the period has been pretty cloudy due to persistent convective debris and/or post-outflow stratus clouds.

EDIT: The long-advertised heat wave did verify for San Antonio, Austin and (to a lesser extent) Houston though. And granted, the humidity was certainly imrpessive althugh actual temps fell well short of expectations.

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On 6/18/2023 at 11:29 AM, Powerball said:

It's kind of funny, really.

Last week, it was looking like DFW would be seeing days upon days of 100*F+ weather and sunny/dry conditions with no end in sight. There was so much hype about record-breaking oppressive heat.

Fast forward to today and not only has DFW yet to hit 100*F+, but it's only been "seasonably warm" and there's a good chance the first 100*F+ day may not even happen at all with this "heat wave" before it ends on Wednesday. Plus, much of the period has been pretty cloudy due to persistent convective debris and/or post-outflow stratus clouds.

EDIT: The long-advertised heat wave did verify for San Antonio, Austin and (to a lesser extent) Houston though. And granted, the humidity was certainly imrpessive althugh actual temps fell well short of expectations.

Another 99*F for the books at DFW, unless a sneaky spike to 100*F happens within the next hour.

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18 hours ago, Powerball said:

DFW only topped off at 92*F today due to more cloud covers and now the unexpected cap busters.

Any shot at the first 100*F high is now off the table until Saturday at the earliest.

Houston beating Dallas to the first 100° day of the year is not something that happens every year.   Only 99° on the hours, will have to see if we reached it between hours.  40% chance of your storms arriving after midnight.  (Edited- 114° was all time record tying temp in San Angelo)

 

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1 hour ago, Powerball said:

Official high yesterday at DFW was an intra-hour 101*F, warmest of the year so far.

Perhaps the most impressive part about this heat wave is that were getting temps 100*F or greater while dewpoints hold in the low/mid 70s through peak heating. It's not often that happens, especially this far NW from the Gulf / swamp land (though maybe in Houston / Louisiana / Arkansas / Mississipi)...

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I'm trying to talk my wife into a few days in Galveston.  Morning low at Galveston was 83.  The dewpoints have been bouncing between 79 and 80 since yesterday afternoon.  89F with 79F dewpoint currently.  Beach water temps are perfect for hours of surf fishing.

 

 

Conditions at GTOT2 as of
(10:30 am CDT)
1530 GMT on 06/26/2023:
Unit of Measure:   Imperial  Metric    Time Zone:  Station Local Time Greenwich Mean Time [GMT] British Summer Time [GMT+1] Eastern Greenland [GMT-1] Azores [GMT-2] Western Greenland [GMT-3] Atlantic Standard [GMT-4] US/Eastern Standard US/Central Standard US/Mountain Standard US/Pacific Standard Alaska Standard [GMT-9] Hawaii-Aleutian Standard [GMT-10] Samoa Standard [GMT-11] International Date Line West [GMT-12] Western European [GMT+0] Central European [GMT+1] Eastern European [GMT+2] Moscow [GMT+3] GMT+4 Pakistan Standard [GMT+5] GMT+6 Indochina Time [GMT+7] China Coast [GMT+8] Japan Standard [GMT+9] Guam Standard [GMT+10] GMT+11 International Date Line East [GMT+12]    

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 180 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 6.0 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 9.9 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.99 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 87.3 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.9 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 5.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 20 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 5.8 kts
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1 hour ago, Powerball said:

I just can't understand for the life of me why FWD is being pedantic about a Excessive Heat Warning, especially given HOU has issued one despite relatively less oppressive ambient temps and heat indices.

They must have saw my post, as they finally pulled the trigger...:lol:

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