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UK Met Office Forecasts 40C for the First Time


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Monday's maximum temperatures in France are running close to GFS forecast projections so this tends to indicate that 40-41 will likely happen in parts of England on Tuesday. The highest value I saw in England on Monday was 38 C at Cambridge, with 37 at a number of locations including around greater London. Ireland also came very close to breaking their all-time record on Monday, which is a mere 33.3 C from June, 1887. An amateur station in Dublin equalled that value but I think the official stations will top out a little lower. There has always been some doubt expressed about the situation of the thermometer (in Kilkenny) for the 1887 record, in 2006 it was 32.8 C for a more reliable record. 

Here's a link to the maximum temperatures for France from meteociel. You can zoom in on regions using the menu available at the link. These are preliminary values just in since the period for them is 06z to 18z. Note several locations between 42 and 43 C or around 108-109 F. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/tmaxi.php?region=

 

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5 hours ago, bdgwx said:

Wales shattered their all time high. The previous record was 35.2 C on Aug. 2nd, 1990. The new record is now 37.1 C in Hawarden just south of Liverpool.

12Z GFS from yesterday forecasted 37C for this area.

12Z ECMWF from yesterday forecasted 35C for this area.

 

 Here is the 37.1 C on a map I got from the @Roger Smith high temp. link. I saw that Hawarden also had that previous record of 35.2 C in 1990. Note that Hawarden clearly sticks out as a hot spot in NE Wales as nearby stations are all 35.5 C or cooler. Some of the variation may be due to elevation differences as Hawarden is low and other differences may be due to more modification from nearby water. Regardless, the fact that the previous hottest Wales location today was 1.9 C/3.4 F hotter is all we need to know to realize the history made.

071822ukHighs.thumb.png.e23b35a617176c4d5d6af6737108b539.png

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1 hour ago, bdgwx said:

Here is a reminder that the World Weather Attribution group is usually quick to publish their analysis of heatwaves.  I would expect something within a month or so regarding this event.

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/analysis/heatwave/

Also, this attribution study from the July 2019 heatwave in Europe is very likely representative. A key finding:
 
It is noteworthy that every heatwave analysed so far in Europe in recent years (2003, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2018, June 2019 and this study) was found to be made much more likely and more intense due to human-induced climate change. How much more depends very strongly on the event definition: location, season, intensity and durations. The July 2019 heatwave was so extreme over continental Western Europe that the observed magnitudes would have been extremely unlikely without climate change.
 

 

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 And not to forget much of France, Belgium, Luxembourg, southern Netherlands, and much of Germany: these areas on 7/19/22 had widespread highs from the upper 90s to low 100s F (37-40 C)! Although not posted, I should mention that Spain and Portugal were on fire earlier in the week as well as before that.

40E88805-E697-4AA9-83CD-1B209223B356.thumb.png.d07aa7414cb76806729477d3ec613c91.png

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HadCET just updated. The highest daily mean in the Central England Temperature record dating back to 1772 just got SHATTERED.

Here is the sequencing of the records of the highest daily mean.

Date Highest Daily Mean
1772-08-10 22.5
1783-07-11 22.6
1808-07-13 24.5
1948-07-29 25.1
2019-07-25 25.3
2022-07-19 28.1

Here is the full 251 year list sorted in descending order on the highest daily mean for that year.  Prior to 2022 the mean of this list was 21.0 C with a standard deviation of 1.6 C. 2022 is 4.4σ above the mean. Note that the distribution is right tailed so that 4.4σ figure may be a bit misleading.

Year Highest Daily Mean
2022 28.1
2019 25.3
2020 25.2
1948 25.1
1995 24.8
2015 24.7
2006 24.6
1808 24.5
1976 24.5
1990 24.4
1852 24.0
1923 24.0
1818 23.9
1911 23.9
2003 23.9
1975 23.8
1825 23.7
2016 23.6
1943 23.4
2005 23.2
1868 23.1
1930 23.1
1942 23.0
1989 23.0
1947 22.9
2001 22.9
1826 22.8
1858 22.8
1932 22.8
2013 22.8
1817 22.7
1921 22.7
2018 22.7
1783 22.6
1983 22.6
1997 22.6
2009 22.6
1773 22.5
1830 22.5
1847 22.5
1952 22.5
1876 22.4
1878 22.4
1884 22.4
1901 22.4
1949 22.4
1950 22.4
1834 22.3
1873 22.3
1900 22.3
1906 22.3
1912 22.3
1926 22.3
1941 22.3
1957 22.3
2021 22.3
1793 22.2
1859 22.2
1925 22.2
1933 22.2
1996 22.2
1836 22.1
1856 22.1
1935 22.1
1955 22.1
1779 22.0
1814 22.0
1846 22.0
1872 22.0
1893 22.0
1953 22.0
1820 21.9
1842 21.9
1869 21.9
2011 21.9
1780 21.8
1790 21.8
1792 21.8
1819 21.8
1986 21.8
2017 21.8
1800 21.7
1881 21.7
1897 21.7
1936 21.7
1968 21.7
2004 21.7
1778 21.6
1844 21.6
1871 21.6
1898 21.6
1961 21.6
1970 21.6
1984 21.6
1999 21.6
1798 21.4
1870 21.4
1937 21.4
1969 21.4
2002 21.4
1850 21.3
1874 21.3
1917 21.3
1959 21.3
2000 21.3
1797 21.2
1807 21.2
1837 21.2
1885 21.2
1924 21.2
1982 21.2
2008 21.2
1775 21.1
1822 21.1
1824 21.1
1854 21.1
1944 21.1
2014 21.1
1804 21.0
1857 21.0
1914 21.0
1929 21.0
1945 21.0
1781 20.9
1828 20.9
1886 20.9
1934 20.9
1973 20.9
1987 20.9
1772 20.8
1803 20.8
1899 20.8
1938 20.8
1786 20.7
1795 20.7
1827 20.7
1835 20.7
1896 20.7
1980 20.7
1794 20.6
1904 20.6
1918 20.6
1939 20.6
1967 20.6
1810 20.5
1848 20.5
1866 20.5
1994 20.5
1998 20.5
1788 20.4
1843 20.4
1916 20.4
1960 20.4
1991 20.4
1992 20.4
2012 20.4
1776 20.3
1784 20.3
1838 20.3
1851 20.3
1855 20.3
1867 20.3
1940 20.3
1774 20.2
1801 20.2
1813 20.2
1831 20.2
1887 20.2
1782 20.1
1880 20.1
1894 20.1
1981 20.1
1985 20.1
1791 20.0
1833 20.0
1909 20.0
1958 20.0
2010 20.0
1787 19.9
1832 19.9
1865 19.9
1895 19.9
1902 19.9
1971 19.9
1977 19.9
1802 19.8
1821 19.8
1946 19.8
2007 19.8
1905 19.7
1796 19.6
1840 19.6
1845 19.6
1864 19.6
1877 19.6
1888 19.6
1903 19.6
1785 19.5
1806 19.5
1861 19.5
1863 19.5
1908 19.5
1919 19.5
1951 19.5
1966 19.5
1978 19.5
1979 19.5
1777 19.4
1922 19.4
1928 19.4
1964 19.4
1913 19.3
1927 19.3
1988 19.3
1993 19.3
1789 19.2
1823 19.2
1875 19.2
1915 19.2
1972 19.2
1963 19.1
1812 19.0
1829 19.0
1849 19.0
1805 18.9
1839 18.9
1883 18.9
1892 18.9
1841 18.8
1853 18.8
1910 18.8
1799 18.7
1889 18.7
1931 18.7
1956 18.7
1811 18.6
1891 18.6
1965 18.6
1974 18.6
1809 18.5
1816 18.5
1815 18.4
1879 18.4
1882 18.2
1920 18.2
1954 18.2
1907 18.1
1890 18.0
1962 18.0
1862 17.3
1860 17.2
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 Germany was the hottest country of this relentless European heatwave today (see image below). 40.3 C/104.5 F was the hottest and 7 of the 16 states set new all-time record highs within the 39.4-40.3 C range! However, the country's all-time hottest of 41.2 C, set 7/25/2019, wasn't reached.

 Tomorrow is expected to be Poland's hottest day of this awful heatwave as the heat continues to move eastward while areas further west get a reprieve.

017F51A6-2E73-4981-829F-6EDEE4B95E6B.thumb.png.47df6b6882ff5f127294bff70a87e995.png

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

The last four day's worth of nightly EPS means have been amplifying another NW European, 500 mb non-hydrostatic anomaly - roughly centered on August 11th.

As of last night, it has breached the 590 dm in/and continuing along that established trend. 

As for now, this is really more of a hot couple of days by their standards, but it is noted that there are still 5 days - the erstwhile trend to amplify further may not be finished yet...  

image.png.2ad812a8935aee62aea3357e57729381.png 

This could be more an operational effort, but ...seeing as these 'synergistic' heat waves are very much a part of CC - as per well documented attribution studies - and this is beginning to take on the appearance of being a potential intra-seasonal analog ( meaning it happened once, it can happen again before we exit the hemispheric summer), it's sharing contextual space with forecasting efforts.  

The 850s mb has also been maturing along the same trend, showing a 'river' of hot air origined over the NW African Continent, ... passing over the Iberian Peninsula, where there is less means to modify, circumstantially.  

This won't take much more modulation of these synoptic metrics to become another headline event for much of France and the UK.  

image.png.1995d03d4d7502babb8f7e06d5ea0129.png

Even if this does not destined to produce ( ..in fact, it's getting kind of late for their latitude), it is note-worthy that this look is materializing again.

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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The last four day's worth of nightly EPS means have been amplifying another NW European, 500 mb non-hydrostatic anomaly - roughly centered on August 11th.

As of last night, it has breached the 590 dm in/and continuing along that established trend. 

As for now, this is really more of a hot couple of days by their standards, but it is noted that there are still 5 days - the erstwhile trend to amplify further may not be finished yet...  

image.png.2ad812a8935aee62aea3357e57729381.png 

This could be more an operational effort, but ...seeing as these 'synergistic' heat waves are very much a part of CC - as per well documented attribution studies - and this is beginning to take on the appearance of being a potential intra-seasonal analog ( meaning it happened once, it can happen again before we exit the hemispheric summer), it's sharing contextual space with forecasting efforts.  

The 850s mb has also been maturing along the same trend, showing a 'river' of hot air origined over the NW African Continent, ... passing over the Iberian Peninsula, where there is less means to modify, circumstantially.  

This won't take much more modulation of these synoptic metrics to become another headline event for much of France and the UK.  

image.png.1995d03d4d7502babb8f7e06d5ea0129.png

Even if this does not destined to produce ( ..in fact, it's getting kind of late for their latitude), it is note-worthy that this look is materializing again.

 Interesting. However, by this point (5-6 days out), the models were already largely onto the record heat. Also, although the progged 500 mb peak in southern England (591-2 dm) is very similar to the 592 dm peak last month as you implied, the progged E surface winds late next week (due to the sfc high center being to the NE over the N Sea/Denmark along with it ridging westward) vs the SSE sfc winds bringing in the very hot air last month (due to the sfc high center being over Switz. in concert with sfc low to SSW of UK) (see below) are currently limiting S. England progged highs to more ordinary hot as you said (low 90s vs low-mid 100s then). So, I agree with you that it is looking like just a couple of hot days rather than anything approaching last month:

 

7/18/22 very hot SSE winds from France into S Eng. (along with 592 dm 500 mb peak):

 071922UKHeatwave500mbPeak18Z011722Euro.thumb.png.1b871f868d7347dae5baefad152084e7.png

 

8/11/22 prog: only more ordinary heat due to E winds from Netherlands/Germany into S. Eng. despite 500 mb hts 591-2 dm (nearly as high as 7/18/22):

ecmwf_z500_mslp_eu_37.thumb.png.6eb1decb4b6fdd20d52d3dacdb50b45d.png

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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Interesting. However, by this point (5-6 days out), the models were already largely onto the record heat. Also, although the progged 500 mb peak in southern England (591-2 dm) is very similar to the 592 dm peak last month as you implied, the progged E surface winds late next week (due to the sfc high center being to the NE over the N Sea/Denmark along with it ridging westward) vs the SSE sfc winds bringing in the very hot air last month (due to the sfc high center being over Switz. in concert with sfc low to SSW of UK) (see below) are currently limiting S. England progged highs to more ordinary hot as you said (low 90s vs low-mid 100s then). So, I agree with you that it is looking like just a couple of hot days rather than anything approaching last month:

 

7/18/22 very hot SSE winds from France into S Eng. (along with 592 dm 500 mb peak):

 071922UKHeatwave500mbPeak18Z011722Euro.thumb.png.1b871f868d7347dae5baefad152084e7.png

 

8/11/22 prog: only more ordinary heat due to E winds from Netherlands/Germany into S. Eng. despite 500 mb hts 591-2 dm (nearly as high as 7/18/22):

ecmwf_z500_mslp_eu_37.thumb.png.6eb1decb4b6fdd20d52d3dacdb50b45d.png

Right...but the trend may not be finished.  It's a rapid trend onset. ..I'm not sure as a Meteorologist, 'they new by 5 days out' really means that much to me personally.  These things can manifest at different rates. It doesn't preclude this becoming that. 

They have a history of this sort of thing in recent years and this season already ... seeing this same thing with a closed low near the Azores and that big 500 mb non-hydrostatic ridge in the region is too similar in the broader scope to gloss over for me.   - just nuanced and it is very risky to rely on that.  Morph that in 5 days into something more?  not hard to do at all.. 

But honestly.. I'm really more interested in the recurrent nature of that general set up... being one reproducible, and apparently...increasing in frequency the deeper we get into CC future.  That may be the deeper point to make.  

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