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Pittsburgh/Western PA Summer 2022 Discussion


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  • 2 weeks later...
2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

The weather app is spitting out 94 on Wednesday, even for the airport, lol.  It just throws out these wild ass numbers after a model run.  Likely will settle around 84 in the end, lol.

I don't know. NWS PBZ seeing the potential for a "few 90 degree days" middle of next week.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A pattern shift is then expected next week as persistent upper
troughing eventually fills via an amplifying ridge across the
southeastern CONUS. Long range solutions indicate potential for
500mb heights ranging between 590-594 dam, which implies the
potential for a few 90 degree days by mid week. Meanwhile, with
the forecast area on the northern edge of this building ridge,
within continued, nwly flow aloft, unsettled conditions should
remain possible through at least mid-week with ongoing chances
for showers and thunderstorms.
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50 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I don't know. NWS PBZ seeing the potential for a "few 90 degree days" middle of next week.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A pattern shift is then expected next week as persistent upper
troughing eventually fills via an amplifying ridge across the
southeastern CONUS. Long range solutions indicate potential for
500mb heights ranging between 590-594 dam, which implies the
potential for a few 90 degree days by mid week. Meanwhile, with
the forecast area on the northern edge of this building ridge,
within continued, nwly flow aloft, unsettled conditions should
remain possible through at least mid-week with ongoing chances
for showers and thunderstorms.

Will be interesting then.  Some summer tracking for sure then.

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1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

How high realistically do we see it getting Wednesday.  I’d say our ceiling is 92 maybe 93, but the 95 being forecast will be tough.

Best support for eye-popping temps is probably that the latest GEFS ensemble mean for 18z Wednesday is 96. None of the op models or other ensembles have us quite that hot.

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2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

This would be crazy warm for 12Z. NAM shows mid 90s late Wednesday afternoon ahead of this, but I thought the forecast overnight temperatures Thursday morning were actually more noteworthy...

sfct.us_ne.png

 

 

For context, here are the record warm minimums at Pittsburgh. Every single one of them is from the old downtown station, with the exception of the 78 degree low on July 17, 1990. Of course, if the above map came to fruition, it almost certainly would not hold because there would likely be a rain-cooled low well below that the following evening. Even in the absence of rain, it probably would cool below those levels by 1:00 a.m. EDT.  This almost always happens in these situations, but even so I can't ever recall 80+ here in the morning. Usually, its like 75-77 type morning lows that fall to lows in the upper 60s/low 70s due to rain or a cool front passage later in the day.

82 Jul 1, 1901

81 Aug 6, 1918

80 Jul 21, 1930

79 Jul 28, 1901

79 Aug 5, 1918

79 Jul 20, 1930

79 Jul 25, 1934

79 Jul 28, 1901

78 Jun 20, 1924

78 Jul 6, 1911

78 Jul 10, 1881

78 Jul 17, 1990

78 Jul 18, 1887

78 Jul 26, 1892

78 Jul 27 1876

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10 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

This would be crazy warm for 12Z. NAM shows mid 90s late Wednesday afternoon ahead of this, but I thought the forecast overnight temperatures Thursday morning were actually more noteworthy...

sfct.us_ne.png

 

 

I can never remember what time of day those time stamps correspond to.  What time of day is 12z?  I mean it's morning, but what time?

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2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I can never remember what time of day those time stamps correspond to.  What time of day is 12z?  I mean it's morning, but what time?

8:00 A.M. EDT / 7:00 A.M. EST. Probably should have shown the prior map at 9Z (5:00 A.M. EDT/4:00 A.M. EST) for a pre-sunrise reading. It was about the same (82F in Pittsburgh).

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3 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Ron Smiley just said rain chance at about 11 am tomorrow, so that kills chances of 90 pretty much.

12z HRRR has us getting to 97 tomorrow but first of all, it’s the long range HRRR and second of all, everything else seems to have at least some rain/storms and 90 is indeed a struggle on some models.

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1 hour ago, TimB said:

12z HRRR has us getting to 97 tomorrow but first of all, it’s the long range HRRR and second of all, everything else seems to have at least some rain/storms and 90 is indeed a struggle on some models.

One thing to keep in mind is the HRRR is a mesoscale model, so it's designed to take into account small features like elevation changes and urbanization. The 97 shown on the Pivotal maps is centered on downtown. Looks to top out around 94 at the airport, where official records are kept. That's not too unreasonable for a high end estimate, but probably more like 90 or 91, maybe 92, given model consensus.

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12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Just to illustrate this. The KPIT ASOS is at 40.5N, 80.27W. Here's the temperature at that gridpoint when it's printing the 97 in Pittsburgh.

image.png.a8a51888d4cdd496c546548a915df981.png

Either way, still hot.  That makes sense though too.

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