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Thursday, April 14, 2022 Gusty Thunderstorms


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While there remains some uncertainty, there has been a strengthening consensus that a warm front boundary will penetrate at least Connecticut and the western half of Massachusetts Thursday with anomalously warm low-level airmass within the warm sector. Given the likelihood for partly sunny skies within the warm sector, this should yield temperatures climbing into the 70's to even near 80 away from coastal influences. While moisture will be lacking (dewpoints only into the 50's) the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates (6.5 - 7 C/KM) will help contribute to modest instability (~250 J/KG of MLCAPE). Combination of modest forcing from the approaching cold front and instability should aid in the development of a broken line of showers and thunderstorms. Given low-level jet ~30 knots plus inverted-V profiles this will result in the potential for some localized strong-to-damaging wind gusts within the line with the greatest potential west of the I-84 corridor. 

I am shocked at the Slight risk. Thought we would only see marginal. The forcing doesn't look that impressive (with only aid from the front) and the LLJ actually weakens through the day. 

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