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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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It's also has the best shot of wintry precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday morning..It all comes down to overcoming the BL which torches due to the lake.. Warmer the lake=harder it is to snow close to the lake.. Obviously we do better the 2nd half of the month, we'll see how that goes lol

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qpf_acc.us_ne - 2021-10-31T144324.039.png

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Lake induced equilibrium levels will rise from 10K feet Monday night
to about 15K feet Tuesday, then rise further to over 20K feet
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the core of coldest air aloft
crosses the eastern Great Lakes. This will support a good chance of
thunder at times in the stronger bands off both lakes.

Lake Erie...

Monday evening the lake response will still be limited by sparse
synoptic scale moisture. Later Monday night a frontal wave will pass
through the Ohio Valley and bring more synoptic scale moisture into
play. At the same time a surface trough will cross Lake Erie,
bringing an uptick in low level convergence. This will allow a band
of lake effect to expand and intensify across the Southern Tier
overnight, with the eastern end extending all the way across the
Finger Lakes by late Monday night. Sufficient moisture and another
surface trough will support a continuation of lake effect Tuesday
and Tuesday night east of Lake Erie, mainly across the western
Southern Tier. The eastern end will extend across the Finger Lakes
at times with deep inland penetration. Finally by Wednesday,
boundary layer flow will veer more WNW, with lighter upslope/lake
effect persisting over the Southern Tier Wednesday through Wednesday
night.

Precipitation type will be all rain initially Monday evening. Later
Monday night through Tuesday temperatures aloft and in the boundary
layer will cool sufficiently to allow wet snow to mix in across the
higher terrain inland from Lake Erie, with a few of the highest
hills possibly going to all wet snow at times. There is a better
chance of a change to all wet snow Tuesday night and Wednesday when
the column cools further. The heaviest lake effect precip will fall
Monday night through Tuesday when temperatures are still very
marginal for accumulation, with lighter precipitation amounts
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Given the marginal temperatures,
accumulation potential looks limited, with minor accumulations on
the higher hills.

Lake Ontario...

Dry air will limit the lake response through much of Monday night,
with a relatively weak band over the Tug Hill moving north towards
Watertown by late Monday night. Boundary layer moisture and
instability improve late Monday night through Tuesday morning, so
expect a more organized band of lake effect to center over central
and northern Jefferson County as boundary layer flow becomes
southwesterly. This band will tend to break up for awhile Tuesday
afternoon and evening as drier air and shear move over eastern Lake
Ontario. Tuesday night through Wednesday morning a stronger trough
will bring a big increase in synoptic scale moisture and convergence
to Lake Ontario. Expect a band of heavy lake effect to develop near
Watertown initially, then move south across the Tug Hill later
Tuesday night, reaching Oswego County by Wednesday morning. Boundary
layer flow then becomes WNW Wednesday, with a broader area of lake
effect showers southeast of Lake Ontario from the Niagara Frontier
to Central NY by afternoon. Lake effect will continue east and
southeast of Lake Ontario into Wednesday night.

Precipitation type will be strongly influenced by terrain east of
Lake Ontario through the event. The lower elevations close to Lake
Ontario will stay mainly rain, with some graupel or wet flakes
mixing in at times, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday when the
coldest air aloft crosses overhead. The best accumulation potential
for the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks will
come Tuesday night when the strong band moves south across the area,
with several inches of wet snow possible.
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4 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Our exciting start to November is looking less and less exciting. It was always a long shot. Might be better to have a good pattern materialize later anyhow. 
Happy Halloween

Got that right. I still need a few more weeks to finish pre-winter tasks anyway. Hopefully December looks better.

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On 11/1/2021 at 12:03 AM, BuffaloWeather said:

Awesome stuff. What was traveling there like? What covid tests did you have to take?

Because I am fully vaxxed, just needed a rapid antigen test to get back into US (and for entry into Netherlands).  I got it at Schiphol airport in Amsterdam the day prior.  It cost €85. There were much cheaper options in the city but this was more convenient and i got results back in about 20 minutes, so it was a burden lifted and I enjoyed one last night in the city without worries. 

A lot of mask use in Europe, required on mass transit and planes and dining.  Restaurants, pubs in the bigger cities were more rigorous about checking that you were vaxxed upon entry. Outlying areas...not so much.  I didn't have a QR code as I'm not living in Eurooe but everyone accepted my US CDC vax card. I didn't want to bring it and risk losing it but def glad I did.  A couple places were uneasy about the photo on phone so after that I brought it everywhere.  

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