BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2021 Author Share Posted October 31, 2021 The 3KM really pins down highest elevations south of Buffalo, just the hilltops some 6" totals up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2021 Author Share Posted October 31, 2021 This type of pattern would be pretty decent a month from now. First 2 weeks of November are usually a waste for lower elevations if the cold air gets here too early. Lets hope last 2 weeks we can get it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Quite a dreary day, only around 0.15" overnight but dealing with some mist/drizzle at the moment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 4 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Ggem back to a GFS like solution with HP suppressing the next system.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 My gosh, these extreme ridges! Waaaaaaaaaaay up to northern Canada.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Well looks like the euro caved to the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 It's also has the best shot of wintry precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday morning..It all comes down to overcoming the BL which torches due to the lake.. Warmer the lake=harder it is to snow close to the lake.. Obviously we do better the 2nd half of the month, we'll see how that goes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Lake induced equilibrium levels will rise from 10K feet Monday night to about 15K feet Tuesday, then rise further to over 20K feet Tuesday night into Wednesday as the core of coldest air aloft crosses the eastern Great Lakes. This will support a good chance of thunder at times in the stronger bands off both lakes. Lake Erie... Monday evening the lake response will still be limited by sparse synoptic scale moisture. Later Monday night a frontal wave will pass through the Ohio Valley and bring more synoptic scale moisture into play. At the same time a surface trough will cross Lake Erie, bringing an uptick in low level convergence. This will allow a band of lake effect to expand and intensify across the Southern Tier overnight, with the eastern end extending all the way across the Finger Lakes by late Monday night. Sufficient moisture and another surface trough will support a continuation of lake effect Tuesday and Tuesday night east of Lake Erie, mainly across the western Southern Tier. The eastern end will extend across the Finger Lakes at times with deep inland penetration. Finally by Wednesday, boundary layer flow will veer more WNW, with lighter upslope/lake effect persisting over the Southern Tier Wednesday through Wednesday night. Precipitation type will be all rain initially Monday evening. Later Monday night through Tuesday temperatures aloft and in the boundary layer will cool sufficiently to allow wet snow to mix in across the higher terrain inland from Lake Erie, with a few of the highest hills possibly going to all wet snow at times. There is a better chance of a change to all wet snow Tuesday night and Wednesday when the column cools further. The heaviest lake effect precip will fall Monday night through Tuesday when temperatures are still very marginal for accumulation, with lighter precipitation amounts Tuesday night and Wednesday. Given the marginal temperatures, accumulation potential looks limited, with minor accumulations on the higher hills. Lake Ontario... Dry air will limit the lake response through much of Monday night, with a relatively weak band over the Tug Hill moving north towards Watertown by late Monday night. Boundary layer moisture and instability improve late Monday night through Tuesday morning, so expect a more organized band of lake effect to center over central and northern Jefferson County as boundary layer flow becomes southwesterly. This band will tend to break up for awhile Tuesday afternoon and evening as drier air and shear move over eastern Lake Ontario. Tuesday night through Wednesday morning a stronger trough will bring a big increase in synoptic scale moisture and convergence to Lake Ontario. Expect a band of heavy lake effect to develop near Watertown initially, then move south across the Tug Hill later Tuesday night, reaching Oswego County by Wednesday morning. Boundary layer flow then becomes WNW Wednesday, with a broader area of lake effect showers southeast of Lake Ontario from the Niagara Frontier to Central NY by afternoon. Lake effect will continue east and southeast of Lake Ontario into Wednesday night. Precipitation type will be strongly influenced by terrain east of Lake Ontario through the event. The lower elevations close to Lake Ontario will stay mainly rain, with some graupel or wet flakes mixing in at times, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday when the coldest air aloft crosses overhead. The best accumulation potential for the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks will come Tuesday night when the strong band moves south across the area, with several inches of wet snow possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Rainy in Amsterdam tonight but not too cold, maybe 50... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Our exciting start to November is looking less and less exciting. It was always a long shot. Might be better to have a good pattern materialize later anyhow. Happy Halloween 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 4 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Our exciting start to November is looking less and less exciting. It was always a long shot. Might be better to have a good pattern materialize later anyhow. Happy Halloween Got that right. I still need a few more weeks to finish pre-winter tasks anyway. Hopefully December looks better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 8 hours ago, Syrmax said: Rainy in Amsterdam tonight but not too cold, maybe 50... Awesome stuff. What was traveling there like? What covid tests did you have to take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 New Thread! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Moon Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 20 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Holy ****. 100" in 12 hours? An average of 8" per hour rates? Is that what I've just read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 On 11/1/2021 at 12:03 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Awesome stuff. What was traveling there like? What covid tests did you have to take? Because I am fully vaxxed, just needed a rapid antigen test to get back into US (and for entry into Netherlands). I got it at Schiphol airport in Amsterdam the day prior. It cost €85. There were much cheaper options in the city but this was more convenient and i got results back in about 20 minutes, so it was a burden lifted and I enjoyed one last night in the city without worries. A lot of mask use in Europe, required on mass transit and planes and dining. Restaurants, pubs in the bigger cities were more rigorous about checking that you were vaxxed upon entry. Outlying areas...not so much. I didn't have a QR code as I'm not living in Eurooe but everyone accepted my US CDC vax card. I didn't want to bring it and risk losing it but def glad I did. A couple places were uneasy about the photo on phone so after that I brought it everywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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