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May 3-5 Severe


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Euro shows this... which is why SPC seems unsure. All depends on low placement and development... Here is the Euro as an example.. other runs don’t necessarily show this same set up. This set up has more shear! Has parts of TN with over 60kts

DC5458B2-821B-41C9-BD50-4BB68B3DEEAB.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

12Z NAM Nest has decent Helicity swaths over TN and KY Tuesday afternoon at the end of the run at 00z Weds

 

Do you mind posting the graphics?

 

 

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New GFS. Near Plateau area.. after reviewing all the information I honestly feel that we could have a few lower end tornadoes here. The Helicity values support EF 2 Tornado potential 

481CC6CE-5340-48A4-BE65-5BD72A8466F8.jpeg

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Monday and Tuesday the low levels will be veered off; so, the tornado threat is fairly low. 2-5% is reasonable. Don't expect them to raise it.

Waste of CAPE I know. However I'd watch for hail. Of course straight line winds are on the table too both days. Honestly though my mind is out in the Plains the following week.

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