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Chip

May 3-5 Severe

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Well after looking through models this morning I figured I better put this up. Good parameters for a decent event over a large area I would think.

917C61F6-3EC9-495B-BB04-2E0E32CDDBF8.jpeg

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SPC has moved the 15% forward for a Slight Risk on Sunday. I like their use of pattern recognition. ECMWF is more bullish (ENH material). GFS is slop (Marginal verbatim). Sothern stream wave in early May certainly calls for Slight Risk.

For those on the forum who get anxious about severe, I'm not at all worried about a big tornado day. Looks like straight wind mostly. However in early May we can't take a few tornadoes off the table.

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47 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


Where’s that T Skew from? Location?


.

Central TN. 

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Here is the new GFS sounding… A couple things I noticed is the critical angle is rather high and in the zone you look for strong tornadoes based on research. I also noticed the STP came up a little bit on this new run of GFS. Granted looking at all the small stuff is really pointless at this juncture (way too far out) however I will be curious to see how this trends going forward.

AF64CEA2-D33D-4853-8243-F85340B6BDCD.jpeg

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I understand that the NAM tends to be very bullish this far out however given the current trends I am actually kind of surprised that this hasn’t gotten a little bit more attention yet. I added the part about critical angle because I noticed that the majority of the soundings are around 90. 

FE047D34-C55C-4E4D-98ED-B8885539DDB3.jpeg

00C86C27-7EDE-47AD-A0BF-2289CC437A32.jpeg

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Here is its evolution in comparison. I will be interested to see how this looks in the morning.

May 3 GFS.gif

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54 minutes ago, Chip said:

New NAM run

3153D044-7E14-4368-860C-B9853AB657EC.jpeg

Hey Chip,when you post a sounding would you please post where the sounding is at,i noticed some people don't know where it's at,i know by the long and lat that is Middle Tn,but some folks that pop in won't have a clue,thanks

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7 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Hey Chip,when you post a sounding would you please post where the sounding is at,i noticed some people don't know where it's at,i know by the long and lat that is Middle Tn,but some folks that pop in won't have a clue,thanks

Yes absolutely!!

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8 minutes ago, Chip said:

STP 

17E69643-7A5B-4031-82D2-7FC3B2725D31.jpeg

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            12Z MAY01   * - APPROXIMATED
                 SFC     SFC    BNDRY    SFC    BEST     SFC    BNDRY   3000M
                 PWW    CAPE    CAPE     LIX     LIX     CIN     CIN     HEL 
                (IN)    J/KG    J/KG     (C)     (C)    J/KG    J/KG    M2/S2
SAT 12Z 01-MAY   0.7       0       0      13      10       0       0      41    
SAT 18Z 01-MAY   0.8       0       0       7       8       0       0      33    
SUN 00Z 02-MAY   0.9       3       0       5       6     -22       0      18    
SUN 06Z 02-MAY   1.3       0       0       7       6       0       0      35    
SUN 12Z 02-MAY   1.5       0       0       8       4       0       0     145    
SUN 18Z 02-MAY   1.6       1      22       5       2       0      -1     115    
MON 00Z 03-MAY   1.5       2      64       2       0     -20     -19     253    
MON 06Z 03-MAY   1.5       4      70       1       0     -81     -20     184    
MON 12Z 03-MAY   1.4     441    1115      -2      -5    -161     -20     197    
MON 18Z 03-MAY   1.3    1941    1852      -6      -6     -76     -85     244    
TUE 00Z 04-MAY   1.3    3229    3206     -10     -10     -50     -52     273    
TUE 06Z 04-MAY   1.6    2851    2918     -10     -10     -76     -61     144    
TUE 12Z 04-MAY   1.2     138     138      -1      -2    -429    -411      28    
TUE 18Z 04-MAY   1.4    1433    1171      -6      -5      -8     -20     143   
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Yes absolutely!!

Also list what area. Don’t have to be specific, just give up the closest town to it.


.

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Just now, PowellVolz said:


How much degree do you need? Seems like I remember 30° or something?


.

Need not sure..... I do know when you get near 90 that is optimal.

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Just now, Chip said:

Need not sure..... I do know when you get near 90 that is optimal.

90 is optimal like you said ,it can go lower or higher

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9 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


How much degree do you need? Seems like I remember 30° or something?


.

Critical Angle

The "critical angle" is the angle between the storm-relative wind at the surface and the 0-500 m AGL shear vector [(kt) displayed only for areas where the effective inflow base is the ground (SBCAPE 100 J kg-1 or greater, and less than 250 J kg-1 CIN].

A critical angle near 90 degrees infers streamwise vorticity near the ground, which favors stronger cyclonic rotation and dynamically forced ascent closer to the ground in a right-moving supercell (through the effects of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity). Critical angles in the range of 45 to 135 degrees suggest near-surface vorticity is more streamwise than crosswise, and values in this range are highlighted by the color fill. Large SRH colocated with a critical angle close to 90 degrees is most favorable for tornadic supercells.

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Euro is still slower with the front than the GFS

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z MAY01
                 2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    6 HR    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     DEW    CAPE     QPF     CVP     NCP     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    J/KG    (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SAT 12Z 01-MAY  10.1     4.0       0                             578     560    
SAT 18Z 01-MAY  22.7     3.6       0                             579     562    
SUN 00Z 02-MAY  19.6    14.1       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     578     566    
SUN 06Z 02-MAY  14.1     8.6       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     578     566    
SUN 12Z 02-MAY  15.3     7.2       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     576     565    
SUN 18Z 02-MAY  25.0     8.1       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     575     566    
MON 00Z 03-MAY  19.7    13.4       0    0.01    0.00    0.01     572     566    
MON 06Z 03-MAY  17.4    16.1     258    0.07    0.06    0.01     569     565    
MON 12Z 03-MAY  18.3    17.8     303    0.22    0.14    0.08     569     565    
MON 18Z 03-MAY  23.0    20.4    1914    0.34    0.29    0.05     573     568    
TUE 00Z 04-MAY  23.2    20.2    1941    0.09    0.06    0.02     575     571    
TUE 06Z 04-MAY  19.2    18.8    1487    0.31    0.25    0.06     577     569    
TUE 12Z 04-MAY  18.3    17.9    1547    0.26    0.26    0.00     577     569    
TUE 18Z 04-MAY  24.5    20.6    1286    0.38    0.33    0.06     577     571    
WED 00Z 05-MAY  21.9    20.1     971    0.02    0.01    0.01     575     570    
WED 06Z 05-MAY  19.2    19.0     640    0.85    0.69    0.16     572     567    
WED 12Z 05-MAY  13.8    12.9       8    0.05    0.01    0.04     572     562    
WED 18Z 05-MAY  18.3    10.3       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     573     560    
THU 00Z 06-MAY  16.8     9.4      18    0.00    0.00    0.00     573     559    
THU 06Z 06-MAY  10.8     8.0       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     572     556    
THU 12Z 06-MAY  10.1     6.4       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     571     554    
THU 18Z 06-MAY  15.2     4.6       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     567     551    
FRI 00Z 07-MAY  13.9     9.4      32    0.00    0.00    0.00     561     547    
FRI 06Z 07-MAY  10.0     6.9       1    0.00    0.00    0.00     557     545    
FRI 12Z 07-MAY  10.8     8.8      13    0.01    0.01    0.00     553     543    
FRI 18Z 07-MAY  13.8     9.7      61    0.15    0.12    0.03     554     544    
SAT 00Z 08-MAY   9.7     7.4      13    0.12    0.07    0.06     554     541    
SAT 06Z 08-MAY   6.7     3.3       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     553     539    
SAT 12Z 08-MAY   5.3     1.6       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     555     539 

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3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Euro is still slower with the front than the GFS

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z MAY01
                 2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    6 HR    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     DEW    CAPE     QPF     CVP     NCP     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    J/KG    (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SAT 12Z 01-MAY  10.1     4.0       0                             578     560    
SAT 18Z 01-MAY  22.7     3.6       0                             579     562    
SUN 00Z 02-MAY  19.6    14.1       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     578     566    
SUN 06Z 02-MAY  14.1     8.6       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     578     566    
SUN 12Z 02-MAY  15.3     7.2       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     576     565    
SUN 18Z 02-MAY  25.0     8.1       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     575     566    
MON 00Z 03-MAY  19.7    13.4       0    0.01    0.00    0.01     572     566    
MON 06Z 03-MAY  17.4    16.1     258    0.07    0.06    0.01     569     565    
MON 12Z 03-MAY  18.3    17.8     303    0.22    0.14    0.08     569     565    
MON 18Z 03-MAY  23.0    20.4    1914    0.34    0.29    0.05     573     568    
TUE 00Z 04-MAY  23.2    20.2    1941    0.09    0.06    0.02     575     571    
TUE 06Z 04-MAY  19.2    18.8    1487    0.31    0.25    0.06     577     569    
TUE 12Z 04-MAY  18.3    17.9    1547    0.26    0.26    0.00     577     569    
TUE 18Z 04-MAY  24.5    20.6    1286    0.38    0.33    0.06     577     571    
WED 00Z 05-MAY  21.9    20.1     971    0.02    0.01    0.01     575     570    
WED 06Z 05-MAY  19.2    19.0     640    0.85    0.69    0.16     572     567    
WED 12Z 05-MAY  13.8    12.9       8    0.05    0.01    0.04     572     562    
WED 18Z 05-MAY  18.3    10.3       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     573     560    
THU 00Z 06-MAY  16.8     9.4      18    0.00    0.00    0.00     573     559    
THU 06Z 06-MAY  10.8     8.0       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     572     556    
THU 12Z 06-MAY  10.1     6.4       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     571     554    
THU 18Z 06-MAY  15.2     4.6       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     567     551    
FRI 00Z 07-MAY  13.9     9.4      32    0.00    0.00    0.00     561     547    
FRI 06Z 07-MAY  10.0     6.9       1    0.00    0.00    0.00     557     545    
FRI 12Z 07-MAY  10.8     8.8      13    0.01    0.01    0.00     553     543    
FRI 18Z 07-MAY  13.8     9.7      61    0.15    0.12    0.03     554     544    
SAT 00Z 08-MAY   9.7     7.4      13    0.12    0.07    0.06     554     541    
SAT 06Z 08-MAY   6.7     3.3       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     553     539    
SAT 12Z 08-MAY   5.3     1.6       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     555     539 

And from what I can tell a longer threat as well it seems. I will be curious if it keeps this on the next run

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