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I just looked at the long range data and the La Niña has strengthened yet again, especially in the central and western pacific, with 1.2 degrees Celsius below normal in regions 3.4 and 4. This La Niña was approaching high end weak/low end moderate levels as in mid Jan but the La Niña is now back to solidly moderate strength La Niña, this isn’t quite the borderline strong Nina it was during late fall/early winter, but this restrengthening could possibly be the start of a second La Niña in the spring and summer. From what I know about la ninas is they typically peak in late fall or early winter, so a restrengthening in the spring is quite unusual, with the only years I can find doing this being 1975 and 1955, which isn’t enough of a sample size to draw any conclusions. Also both these were weak events at the time (this La Niña is moderate and peaked borderline strong) and the climate is much different (warmer) than it was then, so the only conclusion I can draw from this is that what is happening right now is very unusual. I’m not sure what is going on, but my hypothesis is that this restrengthening is the start of what will be a double peak La Niña event, with the first peak being late fall/early winter, and the second and much stronger peak being next fall, potentially rivaling the strength of the record breaking 2010-2011 La Niña (I know it is considered just a regular strong Nina going by ONI, but this La Niña was extremely west based so ONI undersells the true strength of this La Niña. According to the Multivariate Enso Index, which captures all regions of the pacific, this was the strongest Nina on record). 

 

 


 

 

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It looks like CPC has been moving to new websites for the 1991-2020 base period for ENSO stuff. I realized this today.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for  This is the new site for weekly data. The old one said "8110"

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 06JAN2021     23.1-0.8     24.7-0.8     25.5-1.1     27.1-1.3
 13JAN2021     24.0-0.3     24.7-0.9     25.4-1.2     27.0-1.3
 20JAN2021     23.9-0.8     25.2-0.6     25.5-1.1     26.9-1.4
 27JAN2021     24.6-0.5     25.7-0.2     25.9-0.7     27.1-1.1
 03FEB2021     25.3-0.2     25.8-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.2-1.1
 10FEB2021     25.4-0.5     25.4-0.9     25.5-1.2     27.0-1.2

Here is the new location for the monthly data: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

January Data:

Nino 1.2: 23.59C

Nino 3:    25.07C

Nino 3.4: 25.55C

Nino 4:     27.25C

Anyway, top matches to January 2021. February 1965 is actually a pretty similar looking month to February 2021. Of these years, most are split in a warm South/East, cold North/West look for March. That said, March 1965 is stupid cold, and March 2012 is stupid hot nationally.

Jan         Nino 1.2 Nino 3 Nin 34 Nino 4 Match
2021 23.59 25.07 25.55 27.25 0.00
1955 23.72 24.80 25.61 27.41 0.62
1963 23.72 24.85 25.77 27.45 0.77
1965 23.87 24.70 25.66 27.23 0.78
1967 23.53 24.93 25.88 27.60 0.88
2001 23.94 25.24 25.81 27.43 0.96
2012 24.38 25.09 25.67 27.30 0.98
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                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 06JAN2021     23.1-0.8     24.7-0.8     25.5-1.1     27.1-1.3
 13JAN2021     24.0-0.3     24.7-0.9     25.4-1.2     27.0-1.3
 20JAN2021     23.9-0.8     25.2-0.6     25.5-1.1     26.9-1.4
 27JAN2021     24.6-0.5     25.7-0.2     25.9-0.7     27.1-1.1
 03FEB2021     25.3-0.2     25.8-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.2-1.1
 10FEB2021     25.4-0.5     25.4-0.9     25.5-1.2     27.0-1.2
 17FEB2021     25.7-0.5     26.2-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.2-1.0

Still west-based. The La Nina is still weakening on net too at the surface. 

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30yrbaseperiods_Nino34._v5.png

New CPC baseline for La Nina / El Nino is super warm mid-year.  Changes from 1951-2010 averages in Nino 3.4 to 1991-2020 averages by month are below.

Jan  26.45 / 26.55  (+0.10)

Feb  26.65 / 26.76  (+0.11)

Mar  27.13 /  27.29   (+0.16)

Apr   27.55 /  27.83  (+0.28)

May  27.67 /  27.94   (+0.27)

Jun   27.47 /  27.73   (+0.26)

Jul    27.04  / 27.29   (+0.25)

Aug   26.65 / 26.86   (+0.21)

Sep   26.54 / 26.72   (+0.18)

Oct    26.50 / 26.72  (+0.22)

Nov   26.49 / 26.70   (+0.21)

Dec   26.45 / 26.60   (+0.15)

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Top SOI Matches for Dec-Feb: 

Year    Dec    Jan    Feb
1938    12.5    16.5    7.2
1942    12.5    8.8    10.1
1973    15.6    20.3    16.0
1975    17.6    11.2    12.6
1988    9.5    12.7    8.5
1998    11.7    14.7    7.1
2020    16.6    15.9    11.3

February 1989 is similarly cold nationally to this year. That's the March to watch.

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6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The Canadian has the La Nina weaker than before near Peru in the coming months. Hangs on well in Nino 4, then re-develops to a weak La Nina basin wide later in 2021.

looks like next winter will be a neutral?

I think most of the snow season is done on the east coast, so just looking back on it, looks like above normal snowfall occurred Philly on north while it was below normal Baltimore on south.

 

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The sub-subsurface waters warmed to -0.83 for February 2021. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

Pretty decent rebound this week for Nino 1.2, Nino 3, and Nino 3.4. Winter likely finished around 25.7C in Nino 3.4 again, given 25.8C or so in Nino 3.4 for February.

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 09DEC2020     22.4-0.0     24.3-0.9     25.4-1.3     27.7-0.9
 16DEC2020     22.0-0.7     24.3-0.9     25.6-1.0     27.8-0.8
 23DEC2020     22.1-1.0     24.5-0.8     25.7-1.0     27.6-0.9
 30DEC2020     22.2-1.3     24.4-1.0     25.4-1.2     27.3-1.2
 06JAN2021     23.1-0.8     24.7-0.8     25.5-1.1     27.1-1.3
 13JAN2021     24.0-0.3     24.7-0.9     25.4-1.2     27.0-1.3
 20JAN2021     23.9-0.8     25.2-0.6     25.5-1.1     26.9-1.4
 27JAN2021     24.6-0.5     25.7-0.2     25.9-0.7     27.1-1.1
 03FEB2021     25.3-0.2     25.8-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.2-1.1
 10FEB2021     25.4-0.5     25.4-0.9     25.5-1.2     27.0-1.2
 17FEB2021     25.7-0.5     26.2-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.2-1.0
 24FEB2021     25.2-1.1     25.7-0.9     25.7-1.2     27.2-1.0
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Feb       1.2            3          3.4        4       Match
2021    25.24    25.70    25.71    27.17    0.00
1951    25.19    25.65    25.71    27.09    0.18
1955    24.97    25.70    25.81    27.11    0.43
1956    24.90    25.70    25.76    27.01    0.55
2009    25.42    25.84    25.96    27.35    0.75
2011    25.94    25.63    25.64    27.15    0.86
1963    25.28    25.79    26.22    27.48    0.95

Top matches for February. The look for March is cold North, warm South when the six are blended.

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A lot of times in La Ninas, the Marches that end up fairly cold nationally precede El Ninos the following winter.

Given that the SOI has been predominantly negative (El Nino-like) for almost two weeks now, really need to see if the SOI can sustain negative. March SOI is currently -6.1 almost 1/4 through March.

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
7 Mar 2021 1011.35 1007.95 -3.40 7.18 13.28
6 Mar 2021 1011.64 1008.10 -2.73 7.57 13.49
5 Mar 2021 1010.81 1008.15 -6.94 8.29 13.65
4 Mar 2021 1010.79 1008.45 -8.47 9.13 13.82
3 Mar 2021 1011.54 1008.70 -6.08 9.71 13.98
2 Mar 2021 1011.34 1008.65 -6.80 10.05 14.18
1 Mar 2021 1009.94 1007.60 -8.47 10.48 14.43
28 Feb 2021 1009.96 1006.35 -5.43 10.99 14.76
27 Feb 2021 1009.84 1004.80 1.44 11.47 15.13
26 Feb 2021 1007.90 1005.15 -9.56 12.12 15.33
25 Feb 2021 1008.06 1006.40 -14.79 13.45 15.45
24 Feb 2021 1010.22 1006.20 -3.46 14.79 15.65

Since 1990, cold-ENSO winters with a -SOI in March are 4/4 in going to El Ninos: 1996-97 to 1997-98,

                                                                                                                                                2001-02 to 2002-03,

                                                                                                                                               2008-09 to 2009-10,  

                                                                                                                                               2013-14 to 2014-15.

The overall track-record from 1931 to 2019, if you include borderline El Ninos 1990-91 and 1979-80, is 10 of 18 cold-ENSO years with a -SOI in March go to El Nino or near-El Nino conditions the next winter.

Cold ENSO (La Nina or cold-Neutral) winters with a -4 to -8 SOI in March:

2001-02 (-6, El Nino followed)

1996-97 (-7, El Nino followed)

1989-90 (-8, near-El Nino followed)

1983-84 (-6.5, La Nina followed, but 1984-85 is a very wet/cold winter in the SW)

1950-51 (-5.5, El Nino followed)

1937-38 (-4, La Nina followed, but 1938-39 is a very cold winter in the SW)

Other Recent Cold ENSO, but -SOI Marches:

2013-14 (-12, El Nino followed)

2008-09 (-1, El Nino followed)

1985-86 (-0.3, El Nino followed)

1984-85 (-3, Neutral followed)

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European has been showing La Nina ending in March. Still looks like that might be right.  It's certainly interesting seeing Nino 1.2 and 3 warmer than 3.4

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 06JAN2021     23.1-0.8     24.7-0.8     25.5-1.1     27.1-1.3
 13JAN2021     24.0-0.3     24.7-0.9     25.4-1.2     27.0-1.3
 20JAN2021     23.9-0.8     25.2-0.6     25.5-1.1     26.9-1.4
 27JAN2021     24.6-0.5     25.7-0.2     25.9-0.7     27.1-1.1
 03FEB2021     25.3-0.2     25.8-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.2-1.1
 10FEB2021     25.4-0.5     25.4-0.9     25.5-1.2     27.0-1.2
 17FEB2021     25.7-0.5     26.2-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.2-1.0
 24FEB2021     25.2-1.1     25.7-0.9     25.7-1.2     27.2-1.0
 03MAR2021     26.6 0.2     26.5-0.4     26.3-0.7     27.4-0.8

 

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In the beginning part of an underperforming solar cycle-ascension phase, we favor more La Nina's 

2009 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.6

Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

2010 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.4 -0.2 -0.7 -1.0 -1.3 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6
2011 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0
2012 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.2
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                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 06JAN2021     23.1-0.8     24.7-0.8     25.5-1.1     27.1-1.3
 13JAN2021     24.0-0.3     24.7-0.9     25.4-1.2     27.0-1.3
 20JAN2021     23.9-0.8     25.2-0.6     25.5-1.1     26.9-1.4
 27JAN2021     24.6-0.5     25.7-0.2     25.9-0.7     27.1-1.1
 03FEB2021     25.3-0.2     25.8-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.2-1.1
 10FEB2021     25.4-0.5     25.4-0.9     25.5-1.2     27.0-1.2
 17FEB2021     25.7-0.5     26.2-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.2-1.0
 24FEB2021     25.2-1.1     25.7-0.9     25.7-1.2     27.2-1.0
 03MAR2021     26.6 0.2     26.5-0.4     26.3-0.7     27.4-0.8
 10MAR2021     27.4 0.9     27.1 0.1     26.9-0.3     27.7-0.5

Some real fast warming in the eastern zones now. SOI has been predominantly negative for three weeks now too. Some hints of the subtropical jet starting to strengthen.

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More than half way through March now. SOI is still around -4 month to date. SOI needs to be near +5 the rest of the month just to get back to 0 for March.

There aren't really any good SOI matches for +16 January, +11 February, -4 March since 1931. Will be curious to see how it changes by 3/31. 

The top matches for winter in Nino 4, Nino 3.4, Nino 3, and Nino 1.2 imply an El Nino is pretty likely next year.

DJF Nino4 Nino34 Nino3 Nino12
2020 27.32 25.57 25.05 23.71 0.00
1964 27.20 25.69 24.76 23.71 0.53
1950 27.15 25.41 24.86 23.67 0.55
1954 27.27 25.56 24.73 23.34 0.75
1984 27.59 25.55 24.62 23.64 0.78
2000 27.46 25.87 25.31 23.80 0.80
1962 27.56 25.89 24.91 23.57 0.83

This La Nina wasn't very cold in the eastern zones in the winter. The below lists are all years within 0.2C of observed SSTs in Dec-Feb. Since Nino 3 was only -0.5C or so against 1951-2010, there are far more years close to its temperatures than in Nino 3.4 or 4, which were much colder compared to their averages. Structurally, the years that were closest, within 0.2C in 3-4 of the four Nino zones in winter were 1950-51, 1964-65, 1995-96, 2011-12. The blend of the four years would give you a weak El Nino in fall, since 2012 almost became an El Nino. But then a rapid decay in winter. 1951-52 would be classified as a Neutral today anyway with the warmer Nino 3.4 baseline. 1996-97 is a cold Neutral that rapidly started to warm in Nino 1.2 in February/March.

Top Matches for Nino 4:  Winters starting 1950, 1954, 1964, 2000, 2008, 2011.

Following Years: El Ninos: 1951, 1965, 2009. 

                              Neutrals: 2001, 2012   

                               La Ninas: 1955

Top Matches for Nino 3.4: Winters starting 1950, 1954, 1964, 1967, 1971, 1984, 1995, 2011, 2017. 

Following Years: El Ninos: 1951, 1965, 1968, 1972, 2018   

                               Neutrals: 1985, 1996, 2012 

                                La Ninas: 1955

Top Matches for Nino 3:  Winters starting 1950, 1956, 1961, 1962, 1966, 1971, 1974, 1980, 1983, 1985, 1995, 1996, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2012

Following Years: El Ninos: 1951, 1957, 1963, 1972, 1986, 2006, 2009 

                               Neutrals: 1962, 1967, 1981, 1996, 2012, 2013 

                               La Ninas: 1975, 1984

Top Matches Nino 1.2: Winters starting 1950, 1956, 1958, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1966, 1984, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2007, 2012

Following Years: El Ninos: 1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1997, 2002 

                               Neutrals: 1959, 1962, 1967, 1985, 1996, 2001, 2013   

                               La Ninas: 2000, 2008

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PDO update via Nate Mantua: https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

2020-11-01T00:00:00Z -1.12
2020-12-01T00:00:00Z -0.9
2021-01-01T00:00:00Z -0.16
2021-02-01T00:00:00Z -0.54

First time the PDO has been negative for winter in a while. Trend is definitely down in recent winters:

2014-15:  +2.4

2015-16:  +1.4

2016-17:   +0.9

2017-18:   +0.5

2018-19:   +0.5

2019-20:   +0.0

2020-21:   -0.5

Most negative winter PDO since 2011-12 (-1.3).

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