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2021-2022 ENSO


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^To reiterate my point further, Dec 2010 (300dm vs #2 230dm -PNA) was followed by 10/11 years of -PNA or +NOI. THIS December beat it by 30dm- 330dm, 300dm, 230dm. I think we will see something like 3/8 next Winter's of +PNA, or even 5/10 +PNA, but there will be 5/8 +super-PNA, weighing us to a +anomaly -PNA vs globe. -PNA/+PNA skew difference, could even, even out over 10-15+ years. 

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The last two winters were both pretty cold in Nino 4 (DJF). Here are some relatively similar three year periods.

Before I was on any of these forums I vaguely remember using 1957-58 and 1985-86 in a blend as an estimate for 2014-15, for the rapid warming of Nino 4 in 2014-15 after two colder Nino 4 years in 2013-14 and 2012-13.

DJF 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23:  27.32C / 27.85C

DJF 1983-84, 1984-85, 1985-86:  27.56C / 27.59C / 28.11C

DJF 1955-56, 1956-57, 1957-58: 27.05C / 27.77C / 29.02C

DJF  2007-08, 2008-09, 2009-10: 26.97C / 27.48C / 29.41C

1985-86 (x2), 1957-58 (x2), 2009-10 is a pretty interesting blend to say the least.

Nino 4 in the blend: 27.24C / 27.64C / 28.73C as the estimate for 2022-23.

Personally expecting hermaphrodite ENSO conditions in the July-June year. I don't mean Neutral - I think we'll switch phases in the year, rather than simply moving half a step from Neutral in Summer to El Nino or La Nina in winter.

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14 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The last two winters were both pretty cold in Nino 4 (DJF). Here are some relatively similar three year periods.

Before I was on any of these forums I vaguely remember using 1957-58 and 1985-86 in a blend as an estimate for 2014-15, for the rapid warming of Nino 4 in 2014-15 after two colder Nino 4 years in 2013-14 and 2012-13.

DJF 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23:  27.32C / 27.85C

DJF 1983-84, 1984-85, 1985-86:  27.56C / 27.59C / 28.11C

DJF 1955-56, 1956-57, 1957-58: 27.05C / 27.77C / 29.02C

DJF  2007-08, 2008-09, 2009-10: 26.97C / 27.48C / 29.41C

1985-86 (x2), 1957-58 (x2), 2009-10 is a pretty interesting blend to say the least.

Nino 4 in the blend: 27.24C / 27.64C / 28.73C as the estimate for 2022-23.

Personally expecting hermaphrodite ENSO conditions in the July-June year. I don't mean Neutral - I think we'll switch phases in the year, rather than simply moving half a step from Neutral in Summer to El Nino or La Nina in winter.

I feel like that can be very beneficial for fans of winter in the east, given that weak phases of el nino and la nina are most favorable for cold and snow, as opposed to neutral or stronger ENSO events.

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April 2018 & April 2022 are actually very similar for US temperature patterns spatially if you look. Gives me some home for a weak El Nino later this year. My raw analog blend for winter from last Fall actually held up pretty well in April - mostly with the double weighted 2017-18 in there. CFS has another hot/dry month for May down here, and then I suspect the Summer won't be real hot in the Southwest. Nov-Apr here was essentially a dulled 2017-18 - very dry, generally warm, but with a major break in February-March to cold/wet. But the break in the warmth/dryness in Feb-Mar was much more intense than 2017-18. That was what I expected when I blended in years like 1974-75 and 1961-62, to enhance the wet/cold break without really diminishing the dry/warm signal in the other months.

Screenshot-2022-04-30-10-29-11-AM

Screenshot-2022-04-30-10-29-02-AM

Screenshot-2022-04-30-10-32-03-AM

Screenshot-2022-04-30-10-34-45-AM

You currently have deep patches of warmth and cold below the surface - including the 6th deepest blues and reds. But the warm and cold areas are almost the exact same size at the moment.

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On 4/13/2022 at 9:37 PM, raindancewx said:

I like dry air, but these -10 to -20 dew points (F) with constant fierce wind this April are really getting on my nerves, especially after an excellent March for snow. Any real weather down here in Spring ends up killing a lot of people anyway via the blizzard and tornado outbreaks that follow downwind too.

Image

Same thing going on here, I really love dry weather and heat -- didn't get the heat but the 0 F dew points are nice, the strong winds not so nice.  The low dewpoints are great for limiting my allergies.

 

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On 4/30/2022 at 12:38 PM, raindancewx said:

April 2018 & April 2022 are actually very similar for US temperature patterns spatially if you look. Gives me some home for a weak El Nino later this year. My raw analog blend for winter from last Fall actually held up pretty well in April - mostly with the double weighted 2017-18 in there. CFS has another hot/dry month for May down here, and then I suspect the Summer won't be real hot in the Southwest. Nov-Apr here was essentially a dulled 2017-18 - very dry, generally warm, but with a major break in February-March to cold/wet. But the break in the warmth/dryness in Feb-Mar was much more intense than 2017-18. That was what I expected when I blended in years like 1974-75 and 1961-62, to enhance the wet/cold break without really diminishing the dry/warm signal in the other months.

Screenshot-2022-04-30-10-29-11-AM

Screenshot-2022-04-30-10-29-02-AM

Screenshot-2022-04-30-10-32-03-AM

Screenshot-2022-04-30-10-34-45-AM

You currently have deep patches of warmth and cold below the surface - including the 6th deepest blues and reds. But the warm and cold areas are almost the exact same size at the moment.

April 2018 was much colder here with a 6" snowstorm on the 2nd, an extension of the March pattern.

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Solar activity looks like it is going to finish above 55 sunspots for the July 2021-June 2022 year. That's a bit ahead of July 2010-June 2011.

Pretty rapid changes the last few months on a y/y basis. We've finally reached a prolonged period where it is colder than last year in 120-170W, where the ENSO events are actually defined.

Image

Image

Cooler conditions in Nino 3.4 in Feb-Apr is actually a pretty healthy cold signal in the South for June-Aug. You can see it's a good signal for me during the wet season too - nice strong signal. High solar is a weak cold signal here in August too.

The coldest Feb-Apr in Nino 3.4 since 2011.

Image

Nino 3.4, Feb, Mar, Apr, FMA

1999    25.43    26.33    26.70    26.15
2000    25.21    26.30    26.95    26.15
1955    25.81    26.22    26.60    26.21
1976    25.49    26.46    26.88    26.28
2022    25.86    26.30    26.69    26.28
2011    25.64    26.36    27.05    26.35
1956    25.76    26.46    26.85    26.36
1968    25.68    26.33    27.10    26.37
1975    26.07    26.19    26.86    26.37
1985    26.03    26.50    26.64    26.39
2021    25.75    26.48    27.10    26.44
1967    26.11    26.50    26.74    26.45

Similar FMA Nino 3.4 (26.28C, +/-0.2C), and similar solar, low but rising:

1955, 1956, 1967, 1968, 1999, 2000, 2011. Actually a decent signal for the monsoon really, implies strong TX/Plain high pressure. Precip & Temp maps look like the correlation map above.

Screenshot-2022-05-04-7-11-24-PM

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Tonga has been confirmed as a VEI 6 eruption, largest of the current century.

https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/impact-2022-tonga-eruption/

Cooling in the 20S/175W vicinity was pretty massive for SSTs in month one. If you do 5/10 minus 1/10, the effect is still there. It will be interesting to see what happens as those waters should migrate about. I was going to look to see if winds were predominantly blowing from the NW to SE in the area of the volcano, but not quite sure what level to look at for the Sulfur movement. Ash made it 58 km up into the atmosphere.

Screenshot-2022-05-13-2-55-25-AM

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