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2021-2022 ENSO


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A rapidly deteriorating event at the surface for February looks like this..

_wIkVEBZgL.png.cc2ca19d9c600c329726de5b3977f8cc.png

gE5IN4T7yx.png.1c70fb4f23cbc79221467cb1871cf71d.png

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to be continued..

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8aa.png.bd5dcb74405c0612fbacaaef37e0d834.png

I think 4/6 analog composite researches I have done have given us a strong el nino for later in the year, but I intuitively feel that this will not be the case, but these multi-year analog composites of +1.5 and +2.0c+ are impressive. 

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Almost all major east coast snowstorms are followed by huge, snow-pack destroying warm spells within about two weeks. That gels pretty well with what I expect to happen in February nationally. Have to see how it goes. 

For my purposes, largest square mile coverage x highest average snow cover is the correct measure for snowstorm magnitude. 

Cyclically, this storm time frame showed up in October for January at two harmonic / MJO cycles of +45 days. Might show up again in April or even late March as the pattern changes with ENSO/seasonal progression changes. Impulse timing has been fairly similar to 2020-21, even though temperatures are very different, so if you look back, NYC had the big system sometime around 2/1/21 if I remember right.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2021_nor'easter

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On 1/11/2022 at 10:04 PM, raindancewx said:

Mid-Dec to Late-Dec period of active Western storminess looks like it will come back. This is a pretty substantial rex block forecast in the short term for Kamchatka that will translate to storms for at least California and Arizona in the 1/31-2/3 time frame.

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Here is December 13 for comparison ahead of the big system around 12/31, with a similar rex block in a stormy period for the West.

Image

Ta Da. (For what it's worth, the big Nor'easter forecast showed up in the Bering Sea too in early January, not that anyone looks at that stuff).

Image

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