Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,126
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    SCseminole
    Newest Member
    SCseminole
    Joined

Holiday Forecasts 2021


Brian D
 Share

Recommended Posts

  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

GFS is aggressive in the long range. Temps, precip, etc. Just the pattern I'm looking at, and it's close to the set up I'm seeing with my forecast method around T-Day as per my maps. That's why I put it up. Would be something, tho, if it did turn out that aggressive.

4 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Just seems a little extreme to me for Thanksgiving??  Those temps in the northern Midwest are crazy cold.    Don't get me wrong, I'd love it.  

 

2 hours ago, Baum said:

That 12Z GFS map looks an awful lot like my map for Christmas eve. I believe it has the pattern correct just 30 days too soon. The usual GFS bias.Time will tell.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

It feels like the models are taking turns with supporting a storm (for better or for worse) ~180 hours out. Now the Euro is the closest thing to a hit again.

I have a map from what I mentioned yesterday from my model method. Looks like a clipper moving in with some energy from the south moving up. Could be significant. A messy weekend down that way with snows my way, very possible. Models always get a bit wild during the colder season. For many years that has not changed.

Nov 27-28 wx map.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/18/2021 at 3:55 PM, Brian D said:

Thanksgiving forecast. Wet(some mix/snow) weather moving through Thanksgiving day into Black Friday.

Thanksgiving Day forecast.png

Thanksgiving Day forecast 2.png

Thanksgiving Day forecast 3.png

Looks like a decent call for the wet weather, but like last time, my maps are running a little behind by almost a day, especially Wed into Thurs.

 

T-day wx map.gif

T-day wx map 2.gif

T-day wx map 3.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/19/2021 at 1:23 PM, Brian D said:

I have a map from what I mentioned yesterday from my model method. Looks like a clipper moving in with some energy from the south moving up. Could be significant. A messy weekend down that way with snows my way, very possible. Models always get a bit wild during the colder season. For many years that has not changed.

Nov 27-28 wx map.gif

Southern energy stays put with the clipper moving through bringing light precip. Close call.

 

Nov 27 wx map.gif

Nov 28 wx map.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/8/2021 at 11:24 AM, Brian D said:

12z GFS is picking up on the pattern for this time frame that I'm seeing. Going to be a very interesting one.

Thanksgiving Day gfs 11-8 forecast.png

bust is to  polite. So much for counting on you as my replacement for Joe Bastardi after my disappointment in his long range calls. Lost credibility with me in his constant calls for WAD.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Baum said:

bust is to  polite. So much for counting on you as my replacement for Joe Bastardi after my disappointment in his long range calls. Lost credibility with me in his constant calls for WAD.

You seem to forget that I had the low further north in my forecast with high pressure in place by Friday. Was a little behind as it started moving through on Wed, and I had it on starting on Thurs. And I did mention that even with the GFS maps in my posts. I did post a bad example there. I'll have to be more careful in doing that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...